Texas Fall 2021

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#541 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:42 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Quick update this morning.

There are two camps the GFS (and family) + Canadian which has a not so good Pacific flow. Locks the cold air far North in Alaska.

Then you have the Euro (and family) which puts a loading HP over the Beaufort which sets up cross polar flow and sets up a potential Arctic attack towards the later half of the month.

Two very different outcomes. For the next week or so seasonably cool then seasonably mild rollercoaster. However all of the models start with the Beaufort HP but diverge beyond that.
GFS says no cold, but Euro says cold.


The good news is the Arctic pattern favors cross polar flow and setting shop with the coldest air on our side of the globe. Will we get a good EPO to deliver it?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#542 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Quick update this morning.

There are two camps the GFS (and family) + Canadian which has a not so good Pacific flow. Locks the cold air far North in Alaska.

Then you have the Euro (and family) which puts a loading HP over the Beaufort which sets up cross polar flow and sets up a potential Arctic attack towards the later half of the month.

Two very different outcomes. For the next week or so seasonably cool then seasonably mild rollercoaster. However all of the models start with the Beaufort HP but diverge beyond that.
GFS says no cold, but Euro says cold.


The good news is the Arctic pattern favors cross polar flow and setting shop with the coldest air on our side of the globe. Will we get a good EPO to deliver it?
what is the forecast for the EPO?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#543 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:Quick update this morning.

There are two camps the GFS (and family) + Canadian which has a not so good Pacific flow. Locks the cold air far North in Alaska.

Then you have the Euro (and family) which puts a loading HP over the Beaufort which sets up cross polar flow and sets up a potential Arctic attack towards the later half of the month.

Two very different outcomes. For the next week or so seasonably cool then seasonably mild rollercoaster. However all of the models start with the Beaufort HP but diverge beyond that.



The end of the 12z Euro and the 240 hr mark on the 12z GFS are actually in pretty good agreement for being 10 days out.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#544 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:30 pm

CFS is looking fun for Thanksgiving now and still has what looks to be an active early December. May not see snow reach down into North-Central Texas with the first shot, but it wouldn't surprise me if y'all saw something the first two weeks of December.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#545 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:21 pm

TheProfessor wrote:CFS is looking fun for Thanksgiving now and still has what looks to be an active early December. May not see snow reach down into North-Central Texas with the first shot, but it wouldn't surprise me if y'all saw something the first two weeks of December.


I do want to mention that one of the runs (6z or 12z CFS?) scared me, 1064 MB High pressure area coming from the Arctic forcing the extreme cold (Extreme for December) into the Central & Southern Plains in Early December, OKC would have highs only in the upper Teens & lows near 0, & there is a good amount of snow as well.

That setup is EXACTLY like what happened in February 2021.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#546 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:45 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:CFS is looking fun for Thanksgiving now and still has what looks to be an active early December. May not see snow reach down into North-Central Texas with the first shot, but it wouldn't surprise me if y'all saw something the first two weeks of December.


I do want to mention that one of the runs (6z or 12z CFS?) scared me, 1064 MB High pressure area coming from the Arctic forcing the extreme cold (Extreme for December) into the Central & Southern Plains in Early December, OKC would have highs only in the upper Teens & lows near 0, & there is a good amount of snow as well.

That setup is EXACTLY like what happened in February 2021.


We just need some more consistency from the models. One run it looks promising, the next run takes it away. Need to get something consistently showing up inside 10 days.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#547 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:14 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:CFS is looking fun for Thanksgiving now and still has what looks to be an active early December. May not see snow reach down into North-Central Texas with the first shot, but it wouldn't surprise me if y'all saw something the first two weeks of December.


I do want to mention that one of the runs (6z or 12z CFS?) scared me, 1064 MB High pressure area coming from the Arctic forcing the extreme cold (Extreme for December) into the Central & Southern Plains in Early December, OKC would have highs only in the upper Teens & lows near 0, & there is a good amount of snow as well.

That setup is EXACTLY like what happened in February 2021.


We just need some more consistency from the models. One run it looks promising, the next run takes it away. Need to get something consistently showing up inside 10 days.


The CFS isn't the model to look at for something within 10 days, resolution is way too low and you're better off looking at the main global deterministic models. What the CFS is good at is hinting at patterns in the long range. For the most part it's been pretty consistent with showing winter mischief at the beginning of December. At least one run a day for the last week or so has shown something. The key is the general signal of cold air and a storm, you won't see run to run consistency with similar low tracks on the CFS, as I said before the resolution is too low. The signal looks good though.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#548 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:44 am

Freeze Watch for basically the entire state of Oklahoma for Tonight
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#549 Postby gboudx » Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:19 pm

Hi folks. Logged in to share this video from POW Weather. I like this guy, he explains things well, always has updated videos and is enthusiastic, but not prone to sensationalism. The video discusses what others here have brought up regarding Thanksgiving week. The most relevant for T-giving weeks starts around the 8:00 mark if you don't want to watch the entire thing.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Nb6O03dvfyo[/youtube]
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#550 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:37 pm

Freeze Warning for the entire state tonight, Growing Season is going to end.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#551 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:00 pm

18z GFS was very close here two days before Thanksgiving :double: big snowstorm across Missouri. That timeframe keeps showing signs on and off with some kind of potential at least for a cold snap
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#552 Postby starsfan65 » Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:08 pm

Brent wrote:18z GFS was very close here two days before Thanksgiving :double: big snowstorm across Missouri. That timeframe keeps showing signs on and off with some kind of potential at least for a cold snap

Hopefully it will be a cold Thanksgivng week.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#553 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 13, 2021 8:10 am

Solid first freeze of the year, 30°F

OKC fell to 29°F
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#554 Postby chaser1 » Sat Nov 13, 2021 3:50 pm

Then came the GFS 12Z "choke-run" today LOL. Just like you all in the Southern Plains, many here in Florida have been anticipating some nice chilly Thanksgiving time temps as well. It's just one model run but it suddenly looks like we all just got robbed :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#555 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 13, 2021 4:18 pm

chaser1 wrote:Then came the GFS 12Z "choke-run" today LOL. Just like you all in the Southern Plains, many here in Florida have been anticipating some nice chilly Thanksgiving time temps as well. It's just one model run but it suddenly looks like we all just got robbed :ggreen:


It's the PNA that would not comply with us.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#556 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 13, 2021 4:34 pm

The CFS model is consistently hinting an active Winter Pattern for December, just like what happened in December 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#557 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Nov 13, 2021 5:13 pm

31 here this morning for the first freeze of the season. Those tornado warned storms that rolled through the Dean/Petrolia area a few days ago were INTENSE. Here a pic that one of the local chasers took and what appears to be a possible tornado.
Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#558 Postby starsfan65 » Sat Nov 13, 2021 7:29 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Then came the GFS 12Z "choke-run" today LOL. Just like you all in the Southern Plains, many here in Florida have been anticipating some nice chilly Thanksgiving time temps as well. It's just one model run but it suddenly looks like we all just got robbed :ggreen:


It's the PNA that would not comply with us.
What are they saying about Thanksgiving?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#559 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 13, 2021 8:36 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Then came the GFS 12Z "choke-run" today LOL. Just like you all in the Southern Plains, many here in Florida have been anticipating some nice chilly Thanksgiving time temps as well. It's just one model run but it suddenly looks like we all just got robbed :ggreen:


It's the PNA that would not comply with us.
What are they saying about Thanksgiving?


Note the +PNA for Thanksgiving week on the 18z GFS model

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#560 Postby starsfan65 » Sat Nov 13, 2021 9:05 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
It's the PNA that would not comply with us.
What are they saying about Thanksgiving?


Note the +PNA for Thanksgiving week on the 18z GFS model

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
is that good or bad?
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