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Winter is coming
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wxman57 wrote:Come on, La Nina winter! Warm and dry across the south sounds perfect, to me.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here?fbclid=IwAR0tQwhXlQ6i5fbiAI9-qRqj4Q4jKyii3IYYBJBqpp6XDf9RH5jsYqSWN78
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I'm still on the, "big cold coming down early in the season," train. For a while, I have been thinking back to 1989 as a comparison to what were are going through now. Any more evidence would be welcoming. I mostly think the very cold Feb we had in '89, with the MONSTER cold we had in Dec. 89 cant be ignored.
Ntxw wrote:Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.
No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
https://i.imgur.com/eIC14NM.jpg
Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
https://i.imgur.com/sKc1r6e.jpg
Texas Snowman wrote:Don’t look at NOAA’s winter outlook unless you want to get depressed.
Or you’re Wxman57.
Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.
No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
https://i.imgur.com/eIC14NM.jpg
Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
https://i.imgur.com/sKc1r6e.jpg
What is this Winter looking like with the cAK?
Ntxw wrote:Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.
No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
https://i.imgur.com/eI%20C14NM.jpg
Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
https://i.imgur.com/sK%20c1r6e.jpg
TheProfessor wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I'm still on the, "big cold coming down early in the season," train. For a while, I have been thinking back to 1989 as a comparison to what were are going through now. Any more evidence would be welcoming. I mostly think the very cold Feb we had in '89, with the MONSTER cold we had in Dec. 89 cant be ignored.
The signal is there for early cold starting late November going into December. I've kind of had 2013 on my mind, which I'm sure no one in DFW wants to hear. The question will be if we can keep an active pattern with the cold.
I'm also optimistic about the winter outside of possible SSWs (which may not lead to cold) seems like the seasonal models like ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, which would favor a -EPO. This would keep us cool throughout the winter if it were to happen, especially if we can combine it with a +AO and ridging in the Southeast/East Coast. The caveat is that if you combine it with an SSW event with cold leaking into the Americas, you end up with your February 21s and December 1989s.
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