Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

[CrazyC83]

Since it is unlikely Odette (even if it comes back), Peter or Rose will get into a retirement position, there's only four names left to get an original off. The only sure-fire (and likely) retirement so far, Ida, was itself a replacement.

[Category5Kaiju]

Forgot to mention Leah has the chance to also get retired as the third in its naming sequence earlier…

Also, speaking of 98L (which barring any surprise storms should earn the name Sam), if in the purely hypothetical case at this point it were to do what some models have been hinting at and actually affect the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane….we may end up retiring an original S name, leaving S as the letter with most retirees after M.

[InfernoFlameCat]

2005. I am sorry but, how are you going to retire a W name otherwise lol.

[Iceresistance]

Also, I get why it isn't included, but honestly I wouldn't mind if Iota is considered as part of the "I" curse count... I mean, it is literally the letter "I" in the Greek alphabet

Who knew Iota would get retired before Isaac would?

That's my name!

Sandy overshadowed Isaac (me) in 2012 . . .

[DioBrando]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1441608948507975680

[AnnularCane]

Whichever list it is, I kind of have my doubts that any of us will be around to see it happen. But you never know, I guess.

[AJC3]

Whichever list it is, I kind of have my doubts that any of us will be around to see it happen. But you never know, I guess.

Taken from my post on page 1 of this thread (from a few years ago...)

None of us will be alive to see how this turns out. In fact, the great-great-great-grandmother of the clairvoyant who will need to contact me after I'm dead to let me know which list winds up retiring all its names first hasn't been born yet.

[Category5Kaiju]

We’ll see what ultimately happens, but *if* the two current AOIs in the MDR become Victor and Wanda and do not amount to any significant land threat, it’s interesting to believe that going forward in October to the rest of the season that there’s a very real chance that we may get a powerhouse hurricane in the West Atlantic with an auxiliary list name and end up getting its name retired, with List 1’s only true lock in retirement from this year being a non-original name (Ida).

[tomatkins]

Whichever list it is, I kind of have my doubts that any of us will be around to see it happen. But you never know, I guess.

Taken from my post on page 1 of this thread (from a few years ago...)

None of us will be alive to see how this turns out. In fact, the great-great-great-grandmother of the clairvoyant who will need to contact me after I'm dead to let me know which list winds up retiring all its names first hasn't been born yet.

Yeah - given the current retirement rates per letter, you are probably talking 100 years or more down the line and thats with some luck (i.e. if an A storm gets retired off of the list that also had Wilma, instead of off of say the current list.) Could easily be a couple of hundred years before one of the whole lists is retired.

[Teban54]

Looks like we made it to the end of List 1 without retiring a single original name, just like last year.

[wwizard]

I think any list that has a combination of A/B, B/C or A/B/C still unretired would be hard to get done.The last retired A storm was Allison in 2001. The last B was Bob in 1991, and the last C was Charley in 2004. Those early storms just happen too early these days and they usually aren't very strong that early. There's only been 7 storms before August to ever be retired, and 2005 is the last time it happened.

List 2 is the only list that already has 2 of the first 3 letters retired, so it would have the best chance over the others. And it would probably take an Allison type storm to get Bonnie retired.

[Teban54]

Bumping this up again.

Updated September 28, 2022. Fiona and Ian are assumed to be retired.
(Edit on Dec 31, 2022: Looks like Julia is up in the air for retirement, and no other names are retirement-worthy.)

Added color code for triple retirements. Unsurprisingly, it's an I name.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (2022/2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



List 2 will presumably retire at least two names, but neither are original names. Bad luck, as the names next to them (Earl and Hermine) have never been retired.

If there's a La Nina October Caribbean monster that warrants retirement, things will get interesting. Good chance it either knocks out an original name (Karl, Lisa, Nicole), or gives us the second triple retirement right after the first (Martin).

[Teban54]

I think any list that has a combination of A/B, B/C or A/B/C still unretired would be hard to get done.The last retired A storm was Allison in 2001. The last B was Bob in 1991, and the last C was Charley in 2004. Those early storms just happen too early these days and they usually aren't very strong that early. There's only been 7 storms before August to ever be retired, and 2005 is the last time it happened.

List 2 is the only list that already has 2 of the first 3 letters retired, so it would have the best chance over the others. And it would probably take an Allison type storm to get Bonnie retired.

Interestingly, 2022 with its slow start showed you don't always fly past the A/B/C names so fast that they end up never getting retired.

If Colin didn't form (and/or Bonnie didn't get its act together until in the EPAC), and the bell-ringing storms (Danielle/Earl) were closer to land, this year could have come close at retiring an early alphabet name.

Edit: Also, if Bonnie turned out to be the July Caribbean major like EPS showed, it might have had a legitimate chance at retirement.

[CrazyC83]

Bumping this up again.

Updated September 28, 2022. Fiona and Ian are assumed to be retired.

Added color code for triple retirements. Unsurprisingly, it's an I name.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (2022/2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



List 2 will presumably retire at least two names, but neither are original names. Bad luck, as the names next to them (Earl and Hermine) have never been retired.

If there's a La Nina October Caribbean monster that warrants retirement, things will get interesting. Good chance it either knocks out an original name (Karl, Lisa, Nicole), or gives us the second triple retirement right after the first (Martin).

I was actually going to look for this - thanks for bumping it up and adding the triple retirement color. Assumption is that Fiona and Ian are retired, correct.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at each original list and what is left up to now:

1979 - Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda (14)
(Retired: Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel/Ida, Juan/Joaquin)

1980 - Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter (12)
(Retired: Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances/Fiona*, Georges, Ivan/Igor/Ian*, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas)

1981 - Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince (10)
(Retired: Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma)

1982 - Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William (15)
(Retired: Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael, Sandy)

1983 - Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastian, Tanya, Van, Wendy (11)
(Retired: Alicia/Allison, Dean/Dorian, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne)

1984 - Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred (12)
(Retired: Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili/Laura, Paloma)

*presumed

[Category5Kaiju]

If there was anything I learned from this year, it would be to never trust a List 2 year.

Literally every List 2 year (1980, 1992, 1998, 2004, and 2016) featured at least one very destructive and memorable storm. 2022 isn't anything different. And this doesn't count years in the past that would have used List 2 had the naming convention been established then (1926, 1932, 1938, 1944, 1950 ring any bells?)

[Teban54]

Bumping this up again.

Updated September 28, 2022. Fiona and Ian are assumed to be retired.
(Edit on Dec 31, 2022: Looks like Julia is up in the air for retirement, and no other names are retirement-worthy.)

Added color code for triple retirements. Unsurprisingly, it's an I name.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (2022/2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



List 2 will presumably retire at least two names, but neither are original names. Bad luck, as the names next to them (Earl and Hermine) have never been retired.

If there's a La Nina October Caribbean monster that warrants retirement, things will get interesting. Good chance it either knocks out an original name (Karl, Lisa, Nicole), or gives us the second triple retirement right after the first (Martin).

Bumping this, as people are already talking about big ones for 2023 in the other thread.

Original names on List 3: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince.
A lot of them are early letters, as List 3 has done a good job with retiring names deep into the alphabet (mostly due to 2005 and 2017).

Given that transition to at least neutral ENSO is likely, I wonder if this may be the year where A/B/C/E may finally be retired?

[Category5Kaiju]

Bumping this up again.

Updated September 28, 2022. Fiona and Ian are assumed to be retired.
(Edit on Dec 31, 2022: Looks like Julia is up in the air for retirement, and no other names are retirement-worthy.)

Added color code for triple retirements. Unsurprisingly, it's an I name.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (2022/2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



List 2 will presumably retire at least two names, but neither are original names. Bad luck, as the names next to them (Earl and Hermine) have never been retired.

If there's a La Nina October Caribbean monster that warrants retirement, things will get interesting. Good chance it either knocks out an original name (Karl, Lisa, Nicole), or gives us the second triple retirement right after the first (Martin).

Bumping this, as people are already talking about big ones for 2023 in the other thread.

Original names on List 3: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince.
A lot of them are early letters, as List 3 has done a good job with retiring names deep into the alphabet (mostly due to 2005 and 2017).

Given that transition to at least neutral ENSO is likely, I wonder if this may be the year where A/B/C/E may finally be retired?

While it was way before 1979 when we started naming storms with our current naming lists, 1933 would have been a List 3 year assuming the 6-year naming convention existed back then. We all know that that season was pretty insane and could have been another 20+ NS season. Same goes for 1969. List 3 seems to have a pretty nasty history with overly active, destructive years.

[CrazyC83]

Generally, to get rid of early letters these days, we need an inactive season OR a destructive early season (no later than early August) storm. If 2023 is going to be an El Nino season, the former may become true, but such seasons are often front-loaded.

[Category5Kaiju]

Generally, to get rid of early letters these days, we need an inactive season OR a destructive early season (no later than early August) storm. If 2023 is going to be an El Nino season, the former may become true, but such seasons are often front-loaded.

At least this year, I think because of that, I'm giving an elevated probability that "Emily" might become a retirable storm. I still think we're going to blast through the ABC storms in the May-July timeframe.