Major Gulf hurricanes since 1992.....

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Major Gulf hurricanes since 1992.....

#1 Postby Anonymous » Sat Nov 08, 2003 9:47 pm

I've seen a drastic change in the number of major Gulf hurricanes in the past several years. In 1992, Andrew spun it to the GOM as a category 3, and became a category 4 before hitting Louisiana as a weakened 120 mph category 3. After that 2 years went by before category4/5 Opal hit the Panhandle as a weakened 125 mph category 3. 2 years later, Georges reached very strong category 2 at landfall in Mississippi, and since it produced a gust to 172 mph, I guess it was a category 3 at landfall. I might not be right. :wink: A year later Bret was a category 4, and hit Texas as a weakened category 3 of 125 mph. 2 years later Isidore almost reached category 4 north of the YP, but it's tiny loop over land saved us. I think that if it had done that loop over water it would have been the big one for New Orleans. Then, Lili a week later. A category 4 that weakened to a 100 mph category 2 by landfall in Louisiana. What I've concluded is:

Most recent US major hurricanes are 2 years apart (roughly)
It is rare to get two majors the same season, yet alone in two weeks.
Typically have weakened slightly before landfall.
Most storms hit the east side of the Gulf, from Louisiana to Florida.

Comments welcomed!
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#2 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 09, 2003 9:16 am

Georges was not a Cat 3 in the Gulf. That high wind gust reported by Biloxi was in error, as is mentioned in the official Georges report:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998georges.html

"At 0755 UTC, KBIX reported wind gusts of 109 knots, and 149 knots at 0855 UTC 28 September. The latter value is considered to be invalid based on the following: 1) DOW dual doppler maximum wind measurements made at the same time at KBIX were near 107 knots (considered a 2-5 second gust); 2) the anemometer at KBIX is a hot-wire anemometer which has been shown to be prone to major errors in heavy rain, e.g., the erroneous 205 knot wind gust in Typhoon Paka (Hagemeyer, 1998); 3) USAFR dropwindsonde data from the same time period measured a peak wind of 101 knots at 920 mb. An Texas Instrument WR25 anemometer, operated by Mississippi Power and Light one mile north of the beach in Biloxi, measured a wind gust of 102 knots."

So, Georges was only a Cat 2 in the Gulf and at landfall.

As to an increasing number of major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, we've never seen as many major storms in any other 9-year period as from 1995-2003. A good reason for this increased activity is the strong thermohaline circulation that has set up as of 1995. This enhanced circulation leads to warmer-than-normal SSTs across the Atlantic. Chris Landsea has found that the Atlantic goes through periods of above-normal and below-normal SST regimes due to a periodic (30-50 year cycle) change in the thermohaline circulation:

1900-1925: cold cycle
1926-1969: warm cycle
1970-1994: cold cycle
1995-2003+: warm cycle

History tells us that the actual NUMBER of storms doesn't necessarily increase during these warm cycles, but what storms DO develop have a much better chance of becoming major hurricanes when the Atlantic is warmer.

As for landfalls related to SST regimes, Florida is most affected. During the last cold regime (1970-1994), Florida was hit by 1 major hurricane every 10 years. However, during the previous warm regime lasting from 1926-1969, Florida was hit by a major hurricane about every 2.5 years. There's a lesser relationship along the Gulf and U.S. east coast. Florida has been very lucky that a persistent east coast "guardian trof" has deflected a number of major hurricanes northward since 1995. But that trof is now gone.

The current enhanced thermohaline circulation may last 2-4 decades, meaning enhanced major hurricane activity for quite a number of years to come. When these major hurricanes start hitting, I think a number of insurance companies are going to go broke. Several did back in 1992 when Andrew hit. But if a major city is hit now, it's going to be a huge disaster.
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#3 Postby AussieMark » Sun Nov 09, 2003 9:20 am

The damage from Isabel potentially could cause Insurance Companies Nightmares. :lol:
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Nov 09, 2003 1:40 pm

Mark, that's funny?
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#5 Postby AussieMark » Sun Nov 09, 2003 10:56 pm

for the Insurance Comapnies it is not the people....Insurance companies will do anything from their bag of tricks to get out of coughing up the dough.

I feel for the people involved but not the insurance companies.

That is all
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#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:18 am

I figured that's what you meant, but still. Insurance companies are important to the public. :)
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#7 Postby stormchazer » Mon Nov 10, 2003 6:41 am

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:for the Insurance Comapnies it is not the people....Insurance companies will do anything from their bag of tricks to get out of coughing up the dough.

I feel for the people involved but not the insurance companies.

That is all


Remember that even Insurance Companies are made up of people like me and you with bills to pay. I don't want to see any business struggle cause that means hardworking people are suffering.
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#8 Postby AussieMark » Tue Nov 11, 2003 7:01 am

Sorry about this COntroversial Topic.

The main point I was trying to make was that Insurance Companies are like a Giant Monster and a Titanic struggle ensures for victory but a knock back is swift.

They tend to use any reason to get out of paying up.

We got diddled the old "Act Of God" when we were flooded years ago ---> the water came up through the floorboards and the insurance Companies claimed it was an "Act Of God" and we didn't get a cent.

So that is my reason for not caring less about insurance companies.

That and the dishonesty that the directors live in as no doubt they syphon money out or they basically get paid for sitting on their *** doing bugger all.

BUT AGAIN I APOLOGISE THE ONLY INSTITUTION I HATE MORE THAN BANKS IS INSURANCE COMPANIES.
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