ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Same as earlier

18L SAM 210926 0600 13.7N 49.4W ATL 125 943

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

Sam is pulsing up and down. He's looking a tiny bit less impressive on IR now than a few hours ago once recon departed. But I think it's just a natural cycle for Sam, with some luck it will be in a pulse up once recon arrives in ~5 hours if I recall correctly.

[supercane4867]

[beoumont]

I think the main reason why NHC decided to discard the higher SFMR and dropsonde winds is that they are not recorded in the right front quadrant, where the maximum winds tend to locate. This lends credence to NHC’s claim that these winds are more associated with mesovortices, rather than the overall circulation.

This is not the first time NHC adopts this line of reasoning. Felix’s 162kt SMFR and dropsonde data were rejected for similar reason.

RFQ for a leftward moving system is NW in theory.

Not just in theory. RFQ is RFQ. No alternate realities in science or math.

NHC's Stewart is obviously the most descriptive in his TC Discussions; and weather nuts like when he is on duty. Me included. But this last discussion, I think, was just too verbose; specifically the last paragraph. He kept mentioning all the factors that were inhibiting intensity; while describing a very recently rapidly intensifying 145 mph system; that he forecasts will be 150 mph within 12 hours.

[sikkar]

Almost crawling now, also resumed intensification.

[kevin]

Still no sign of an EWRC so hopefully Sam won't weaken until well after recon arrives.

[grapealcoholic]

The storm is peaking. Wow

[kevin]

For all I care Sam can weaken later today but please let it keep itself together until after recon. It looks incredible now and I just hope recon catches it at its peak.

[grapealcoholic]

I would estimate 150kt right now

[Blown Away]

Sam’s current CDO could almost fit in Larry’s annular eye. What an intense system, maybe peaks 140-150 knots?

[kevin]

Definitely looks better than when recon arrived yesterday.

NOW

YESTERDAY

[Owasso]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
500 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021

...SAM REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 49.7W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

[kevin]

CDO is rapidly improving with a thick Wring right now.

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1442030321722171392

[Owasso]

[grapealcoholic]

Monster.

[img]blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/55dbd2f4-9975-4f85-b001-0f4f71886907[/img]

[kevin]

Good morning Sam!

[Owasso]

[Owasso]