DioBrando wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Sam ranking very highly up there with other powerful MDR storms this evening. My 135 knot, MSLP 945mb guess is looking good.
Like which ones you reckon?
Jose 2017, Hugo 1988, Igor 2010, and others.
ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Jose 2017, Hugo 1988, Igor 2010, and others.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
On one hand the IR presentation really took a beating, on the other hand there's still intense lightning in the eyewall and pressure hasn't changed much. I don't know what's going on here...
If there was indeed a weakening from the 5pm advisory time (when Sam looked the best IMO) to when recon arrived, one might be able to argue that Sam was a Cat 5 earlier, but the assumed weakening is not a given.
If there was indeed a weakening from the 5pm advisory time (when Sam looked the best IMO) to when recon arrived, one might be able to argue that Sam was a Cat 5 earlier, but the assumed weakening is not a given.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Teban54 wrote:On one hand the IR presentation really took a beating, on the other hand there's still intense lightning in the eyewall and pressure hasn't changed much. I don't know what's going on here...
If there was indeed a weakening from the 5pm advisory time (when Sam looked the best IMO) to when recon arrived, one might be able to argue that Sam was a Cat 5 earlier, but the assumed weakening is not a given.
Eye has expanded from 9nm to 13nm.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Last eye drop recorded 43% RH at 700mb.
Good indication an EWRC maybe forthcoming.
Good indication an EWRC maybe forthcoming.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Cloud tops are definitely cooling now. Also what a wind gust! 180 knots is something.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Last eye drop recorded 43% RH at 700mb.
Good indication an EWRC maybe forthcoming.
Not likely due to the strength of the eyewall shown in the last microwave imagery.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
No sign of a big secondary eyewall on a microwave pass from 20z, so it must be a meld.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:DioBrando wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Sam ranking very highly up there with other powerful MDR storms this evening. My 135 knot, MSLP 945mb guess is looking good.
Like which ones you reckon?
Jose 2017, Hugo 1988, Igor 2010, and others.
Oh wow, those are powerful. I looked at some analog thing and it was throwing out "Gabrielle 1989" as another possible similar storm as well as one from 1996
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Last eye drop recorded 43% RH at 700mb.
Good indication an EWRC maybe forthcoming.
That's very low for a storm about to undergo EWRC... also I've seen pages and pages of EWRC talk for this storm so far and there's yet to be a single one
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
WiscoWx02 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Ok storm seems to be becoming less symmetrical and cloud top warmth is now persisting. A weakening trend is now imminent though not sure what’s causing it.
I smell an eye wall replacement cycle. Weakening for sure. Will have to see if it can finish this eye wall replacement cycle without pulling a Larry. Actually, does anyone know where the best place to access microwave scans of storm structure are?
There’s no sign of an outer eyewall on recon.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
No special advisory so far…they should really do one before observations no longer support 130 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:WiscoWx02 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Ok storm seems to be becoming less symmetrical and cloud top warmth is now persisting. A weakening trend is now imminent though not sure what’s causing it.
I smell an eye wall replacement cycle. Weakening for sure. Will have to see if it can finish this eye wall replacement cycle without pulling a Larry. Actually, does anyone know where the best place to access microwave scans of storm structure are?
There’s no sign of an outer eyewall on recon.
I don't see it either, it's likely a wobble that has even caused the eye to be elliptical on IR, it will likely correct itself in the next couple hours or so . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:No special advisory so far…they should really do one before observations no longer support 130 kt.
Maybe they're waiting for that SE-NW pass, which will likely be the last pass of this mission.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
W ring building back again thanks to the recent convective bursts around the eye. Reminds me a bit of Ida before landfall (though without EWRC).
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Sam's structure is very resilient against ERCs. I think upwelling will weaken it well before any concentric band wraps around this core.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Pressure steady, SFMR up to 140 kt. Sam is either 130 or 135 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:Pressure steady, SFMR up to 140 kt. Sam is either 130 or 135 kt.
That SFMR reading might be tossed out due to high bias in SFMR at that magnitude, but still pretty impressive considering it's in the NW quad that was convectively weaker until just now. Maybe the next set of readings will have higher FL winds.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Eye looking a bit more ragged on IR.
Picking up a few mesovorts.
Picking up a few mesovorts.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
144 knot SFMR. Doubt the NHC will pull the trigger and upgrade until flight level winds support Category 5.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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