ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Floater back

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Yellow Evan]

139 FL 136 SFMR supports 130.

[galaxy401]

Think this is around 130 kts now.

[CrazyC83]

I agree with 130 kt and I'd put out a Tropical Cyclone Update with that intensity.

[aspen]

SFMR matches FL this time. Maybe 135 kt? 130 kt is the most likely though.

It would be nice to have another pass but I doubt Miss Piggy will do another. They’ve got quite a long flight back to base.

[Zonacane]

Just below category 5 strength

[supercane4867]

Dropsonde wind profile suggests very efficient downward mixing of intense winds aloft. Those SFMR readings are probably legitimate for assessment. I’d put it at 135kt right now and soon to be CAT5 if we get more pass from recon

[InfernoFlameCat]

They might do a flight refuel.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Sam ranking very highly up there with other powerful MDR storms this evening. My 135 knot, MSLP 945mb guess is looking good.

[Stormybajan]

Imo based on the NE pass using a blend its probably 130 knots right now and on the edge of 135 knots if those flight level winds increase a bit through this recon mission

[supercane4867]

FWIW the highest SFMR reading recorded in Jose was 142kt but the max FL wind in the same recon mission was only 132kt. SFMR readings from Sam appear to be less inflated than those from Jose

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure about the same as it was in the first pass . . . (942 MB)

[DioBrando]

Sam ranking very highly up there with other powerful MDR storms this evening. My 135 knot, MSLP 945mb guess is looking good.

Like which ones you reckon?

[Hammy]

Dropsonde wind profile suggests very efficient downward mixing of intense winds aloft. Those SFMR readings are probably legitimate for assessment. I’d put it at 135kt right now and soon to be CAT5 if we get more pass from recon

How long is the plane expected to be out there?

[Yellow Evan]

Ok storm seems to be becoming less symmetrical and cloud top warmth is now persisting. A weakening trend is now imminent though not sure what’s causing it.

[skyline385]

I agree with 130 kt and I'd put out a Tropical Cyclone Update with that intensity.

Would they do it for an OTS system? I think they might just update it to 130kt at the 11PM update.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I see a 180knot gust in the 16 dropsonde!

[aspen]

Ok storm seems to be becoming less symmetrical and cloud top warmth is now persisting. A weakening trend is now imminent though not sure what’s causing it.

Someone on Twitter pointed out the possibility of an eyewall meld, so maybe that’s what’s happening. Or it’s a bit of mid-level shear.

[WiscoWx02]

Ok storm seems to be becoming less symmetrical and cloud top warmth is now persisting. A weakening trend is now imminent though not sure what’s causing it.

I smell an eye wall replacement cycle. Weakening for sure. Will have to see if it can finish this eye wall replacement cycle without pulling a Larry. Actually, does anyone know where the best place to access microwave scans of storm structure are?

[MarioProtVI]

FWIW the highest SFMR reading recorded in Jose was 142kt but the max FL wind in the same recon mission was only 132kt. SFMR readings from Sam appear to be less inflated than those from Jose

NHC uses blending so it’s more likely 130 kt.