ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#921 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:28 pm

Sam looks to be 125 kt. This means that the NHC’s 125 kt estimate for the very similar Felicia was likely spot-on, despite an extremely smooth W-ring CDO.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#922 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:28 pm

About what I expected. Looks about 125kts. Solid storm here.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#923 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:28 pm

945mb by dropsonde.

945mb (27.91 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 25.3°C (78°F) 120° (from the ESE) 9 knots (10 mph)
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#924 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:29 pm

Eye drop at 945 mb
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#925 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:35 pm

Blended SFMR and FL supports 125. Probably stronger in the NE.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#926 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:38 pm

Eye is 9 miles wide.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182021
A. 25/22:07:46Z
B. 13.29 deg N 048.58 deg W
C. 700 MB 2627 m
D. 945 mb
E. 120 deg 9 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C9
H. 111 kt
I. 273 deg 4 nm 22:06:44Z
J. 358 deg 106 kt
K. 273 deg 4 nm 22:06:49Z
L. 133 kt
M. 095 deg 7 nm 22:09:26Z
N. 177 deg 127 kt
O. 094 deg 9 nm 22:09:53Z
P. 10 C / 3055 m
Q. 27 C / 3050 m
R. 4 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 WB18A SAM OB 08
MAX FL WIND 127 KT 094 / 9 NM 22:09:53Z
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#927 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:38 pm

 https://twitter.com/andrewhagen/status/1441893359749144576


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#928 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:43 pm

Thicker Ring of Convection starting to fill the area of warmer clouds from the NE Eyewall to the W Eyewall . . .
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#929 Postby zzh » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:43 pm

Image
:D
Last edited by zzh on Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#930 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:44 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Blended SFMR and FL supports 125. Probably stronger in the NE.

Hopefully they do a NE to SW pass. They might just do a N to S pass based on their current trajectory.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#931 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:46 pm

 https://twitter.com/andrewhagen/status/1441895264357216257


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#932 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:46 pm

Big convective burst on IR!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#933 Postby kevin » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:47 pm

Looks to be improving again on IR after losing some of its Wring in the NW sector. If recon sticks around for a few passes we might be able to get in-storm verification of this improvement.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#934 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:49 pm

Probably peaked an hour or two ago. Will probably restrengthen as recon heads out like Eta did last year :lol: Figured it would be anti-climatic. NHC pretty much right on the money.
Last edited by WiscoWx02 on Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#935 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:50 pm

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1441896604005371909


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#936 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:52 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 222020 UTC
Lat : 13:18:36 N Lon : 48:30:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 946.4mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +16.7C Cloud Region Temp : -66.3C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#937 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:54 pm

CAT 5 Winds in the upper levels, has not mixed down yet . . .

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#938 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:54 pm

 https://twitter.com/wxpatel/status/1441896224899092499


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#939 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:55 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Blended SFMR and FL supports 125. Probably stronger in the NE.

Hopefully they do a NE to SW pass. They might just do a N to S pass based on their current trajectory.


From NE to SW.

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#940 Postby skyline385 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:58 pm



Kinda surprised that a Met at NHC isnt sure if the SFMR were fixed...
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