Very stable structure.
ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
I bet this is 130 knots or higher
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Quite a few people are seeing a Cat 5 here - I could very well be wrong but I just don't see it. I guess we'll see soon.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Exactly why I am saying it probably is category 5 by now
Hoping it holds so when recon gets there they are able to measure the wind to prove it.
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MJGarrison
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
floridasun wrote:look at sat loop look like moving still west?
Looks to be just stair-stepping to me.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
SteveM wrote:Quite a few people are seeing a Cat 5 here - I could very well be wrong but I just don't see it. I guess we'll see soon.
You don’t get this kind of structure and satellite presentation very often in this part of the Atlantic. Hugo looked worse at her peak than Sam right now but recon found CAT5 winds regardless
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 192020 UTC
Lat : 13:09:35 N Lon : 48:14:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.9mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : +16.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 192020 UTC
Lat : 13:09:35 N Lon : 48:14:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.9mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : +16.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
The wait for recon to enter Sam is reminiscent of the wait for the highly anticipated Eta recon. I fully expect recon to find Sam knocking on the door of C5 if it isn't there already.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
SteveM wrote:Quite a few people are seeing a Cat 5 here - I could very well be wrong but I just don't see it. I guess we'll see soon.
-removed- is very popular here.
That said, Sam is an impressive and beautiful storm.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
This is the meteorological equivalent of standing in line to watch your most anticipated movie of the year on opening night. Storm tracking doesn't get much better than this, can't wait for recon to arrive.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Winds could be lagging so I think it might be around 125kts right now. However, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds Sam at or near Cat 5 strength when it gets there. Beast of a storm for sure.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Has that high end Category 4 look. Eye/CDO signature not quite at the level of a significantly stronger storm.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
I have to say that this mission by Miss Piggy is going to be one of the important ones of this 2021 season if not the most anticipated one. There have been many missions this season but in this moment that Sam is intensifying, this could be in the history books depending on what they find.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
And to think Sam may maintain this intensity for a few days since NHC only starts weakening on Tuesday... If this hopefully misses land we'll have beautiful storm candy to look at for days.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
I'm guessing the first pass to be between 130-150 mph & between 950-940 MB
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
looks better than lorenzo ever did tbh, and lorenzo was a category 5 at peak
sam is getting that sprawled out "wpac only" look ngl
Last edited by DioBrando on Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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