ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

AL, 18, 2021092518, , BEST, 0, 131N, 481W, 115, 948, HU,

"Cat 4-I-am."

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 182020 UTC
Lat : 13:08:24 N Lon : 48:07:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 959.3mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +15.1C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/zlJmYQVorPU[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Here we go! Miss Piggy is flying now. Follow the mission at the Sam Recon Thread

[supercane4867]

Looks pretty CAT5-ish on IR

[CrazyC83]

I'd say T6.5 looking at it, but I think NHC will be conservative until Recon hits the center.

[supercane4867]

Stadium effect becoming visible. My 140kt+ peak prediction about to materialize

[Yellow Evan]

I’m a little confused why the eye warmth isn’t uniform. This might be a sign of the storm that’s weaker than Dvorak or it might just be an issue with the viewing angle (we’ve seen a similar problem in other basins). Otherwise, this has the classic Category 5 satellite presentation.

[CrazyC83]

https://usercontent.irccloud-cdn.com/file/hEb108kv/goes16_18L_dvorak_202109251855-1.png

I’m a little confused why the eye warmth isn’t uniform. This might be a sign of the storm that’s weaker than Dvorak or it might just be an issue with the viewing angle (we’ve seen a similar problem in other basins). Otherwise, this has the classic Category 5 satellite presentation.

That is likely viewing angle issue. A warmer eye would easily be T7.0 with some CMG showing. I'd personally estimate the intensity at 125 kt, but we will know the truth in about 2 hours or so.

[Iceresistance]

https://usercontent.irccloud-cdn.com/file/hEb108kv/goes16_18L_dvorak_202109251855-1.png

I’m a little confused why the eye warmth isn’t uniform. This might be a sign of the storm that’s weaker than Dvorak or it might just be an issue with the viewing angle (we’ve seen a similar problem in other basins). Otherwise, this has the classic Category 5 satellite presentation.

That is likely viewing angle issue. A warmer eye would easily be T7.0 with some CMG showing. I'd personally estimate the intensity at 125 kt, but we will know the truth in about 2 hours or so.

The Sun is also setting over Sam, that could cause some issues as well with the Temperature Index

[Iceresistance]

Stadium effect becoming visible. My 140kt+ peak prediction about to materialize

https://i.imgur.com/9X7LFYN.jpg

Also, please make sure that the image goes to the Archives as one of the most stunning Atlantic Hurricanes ever shown on Satellite . . .

[hipshot]

WMG has been officially detected . . . It's now a T7.0 based on that . . .


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GOES16_1km_ir_202109251825_8.50_17.00_-53.75_-39.75_bd1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Folks, what is this WMG stuff I've been reading in the posts. I'm not a weather guy but I like to follow this stuff.

Thks.

[floridasun]

this type storm you like see out at sea it big one

[Ubuntwo]

WMG has been officially detected . . . It's now a T7.0 based on that . . .


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GOES16_1km_ir_202109251825_8.50_17.00_-53.75_-39.75_bd1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Folks, what is this WMG stuff I've been reading in the posts. I'm not a weather guy but I like to follow this stuff.

Thks.

WMG = Warm Medium Gray on the Dvorak color scale used to estimate hurricane intensity. Basically, the eye is currently exceptionally clear.

[kevin]

Wow, what a perfect looking hurricane

[WiscoWx02]

I think a category 5 peak intensity is likely at this point. Be willing to bet money though that by the time recon gets there, they will find that it has significantly weakened, so will never see the official designation.

[Stormybajan]

Wow, what a perfect looking hurricane

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL182021/GEOCOLOR/20212681900_GOES16-ABI-FL-GEOCOLOR-AL182021-500x500.jpg

Hugo noises intensifies

[ElectricStorm]

I think a category 5 peak intensity is likely at this point. Be willing to bet money though that by the time recon gets there, they will find that it has significantly weakened, so will never see the official designation.

Recon is on the way. I don't really see this weakening at all between now and then

[floridasun]

look at sat loop look like moving still west?

[kevin]

I think a category 5 peak intensity is likely at this point. Be willing to bet money though that by the time recon gets there, they will find that it has significantly weakened, so will never see the official designation.

Recon is on the way. I don't really see this weakening at all between now and then

Agreed. It might weaken later, but if anything it's only improving now with every frame.