ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Probably knocking on the door of cat four
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
DioBrando wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Man this looks like its going to compete with Ida within a matter of hours.
Sam's probably gonna end up like Gabrielle 1989 tbh:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/800876865430356021/891361622893944902/unknown.png
Does anyone know what ACE Gabrielle produced?
Look how similar the track of Gabrielle 1989 in that pic and the current projected track is, buddy boyos:
Last edited by DioBrando on Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
CMG ring combined with a OW eye, it's a CAT 4 Storm for sure . . . 
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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crownweather
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
DioBrando wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Man this looks like its going to compete with Ida within a matter of hours.
Sam's probably gonna end up like Gabrielle 1989 tbh:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/800876865430356021/891361622893944902/unknown.png
Does anyone know what ACE Gabrielle produced?
The track that you circled is actually Edouard from 1996. Gabrielle from 1989 is that track a little further east.
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Rob Lightbown
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Well this storm is intensifying faster than expected. It certainly did not become a Thomas in regards to its first wind forecast.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Highteeld wrote:Probably knocking on the door of cat four
A blend of ADT, SATCON, and CIRA’s Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis already supports 110-115 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like Sam is clearing out a proper stadium eye now. T#s soon to skyrocket.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
crownweather wrote:DioBrando wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Man this looks like its going to compete with Ida within a matter of hours.
Sam's probably gonna end up like Gabrielle 1989 tbh:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/800876865430356021/891361622893944902/unknown.png
Does anyone know what ACE Gabrielle produced?
The track that you circled is actually Edouard from 1996. Gabrielle from 1989 is that track a little further east.
Oopsie, my bad!
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Recon tonight will be interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if they find a Category 4.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Eye is up to 10C.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Sam is going to get it's organization timeline bumped up significantly in post season. Looks like an absolute monster.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Sam is clearly intensifying again and will likely be a Cat 4 by the 5pm advisory and when recon arrives. I have no idea what that brief degradation in its structure was all about. It’s possible it could randomly happen again.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
WMG Eye has been detected with a ragged CMG CDO Ring
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
underthwx wrote:cycloneye wrote:Ubuntwo wrote:There's also a low-level recon flight leaving this afternoon.
Yep. Noaa's Miss Piggy departs from St Croix at 3 PM EDT.
St. Croix?...oh wow.....I thought all NOAA flights originated from Biloxi?....
Two AF planes are flying now from Keesler to St Croix.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:CMG ring combined with a OW eye, it's a CAT 4 Storm for sure . . .
Sam is beginning to resemble a smaller version of Jose (2017), as the comparison above makes clear. Given its smaller size, it could be close to ~125 kt at this time.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
WMG is being well defined in the eye now, the CMG ring is Incomplete, but it will be given the current trends in the next few hours or so . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Sam appears to be bombing right now. Likely a Cat 4 now and should be a mid-upper 4 in a few hours at this rate.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like a meld.
Last edited by Ubuntwo on Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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