ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Sam’s unexpected structural changes this morning should make the recon flight later today very interesting. Will Sam still have a clouded eye by the time it arrives, or will it be clearing out again? Will they find evidence of an EWRC or mid-level shear?

[NDG]

Sam’s unexpected structural changes this morning should make the recon flight later today very interesting. Will Sam still have a clouded eye by the time it arrives, or will it be clearing out again? Will they find evidence of an EWRC or mid-level shear?

No mention at all on the latest FD by the NHC of an EWRC any time soon, they still forecast steady strengthening through the next 48 hrs.

Edit: BTW, is there a recon going in today? I don't see one for today, I only see the one for tomorrow morning.

[Teban54]

The last few frames look like eye is clearing out again, with cloud tops even colder than before. Sam is not done yet.

Too bad Tropical Tidbits seems to be down, so now I'm using Weathernerds which only has 10-minute floaters. Are there any other websites with access to 1-minute floaters?

[NDG]

The last few frames look like eye is clearing out again, with cloud tops even colder than before. Sam is not done yet.

Too bad Tropical Tidbits seems to be down, so now I'm using Weathernerds which only has 10-minute floaters. Are there any other websites with access to 1-minute floaters?

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

[Iceresistance]

Eye is mostly DG with the warmest part as OW

The CDO is a complete W ring, the Western Eyewall is CMG

[Ubuntwo]

Outer eyewall pretty apparent here, or at least dense inner core banding.

[ElectricStorm]

IMO Sam isn't weakening. The overall shape of the storm looks a little odd, but it seems to me the reason why the eye filled in was due to the deep convection firing around the center. Sam appears to still be strengthening, not weakening.

[Iceresistance]

Outer eyewall pretty apparent here, or at least dense inner core banding.
https://i.imgur.com/51yHCpV.gif

Is it possible that the Outer Eyewall could be melded back into the Inner Eyewall like it happened Yesterday?

[Iceresistance]

CDO W ring posed to break



Eye has also cooled to DG as well . . .

Forgot to mention that there is Upper-Level NNW Wind Shear that is causing this to happen . . . Not very strong shear though . . .

[Iceresistance]

Saved GEOCOLOR loop

[WiscoWx02]

I agree definitely some shear impacting Sam right now on top of an eye wall replacement cycle. Would not be surprised if it levels off at this point. Still a powerful hurricane though.

[underthwx]

Sam’s unexpected structural changes this morning should make the recon flight later today very interesting. Will Sam still have a clouded eye by the time it arrives, or will it be clearing out again? Will they find evidence of an EWRC or mid-level shear?

No mention at all on the latest FD by the NHC of an EWRC any time soon, they still forecast steady strengthening through the next 48 hrs.

Edit: BTW, is there a recon going in today? I don't see one for today, I only see the one for tomorrow morning.

I thought Sunday also for recon....has there been a schedule change?...

[Iceresistance]

Sam’s unexpected structural changes this morning should make the recon flight later today very interesting. Will Sam still have a clouded eye by the time it arrives, or will it be clearing out again? Will they find evidence of an EWRC or mid-level shear?

No mention at all on the latest FD by the NHC of an EWRC any time soon, they still forecast steady strengthening through the next 48 hrs.

Edit: BTW, is there a recon going in today? I don't see one for today, I only see the one for tomorrow morning.

I thought Sunday also for recon....has there been a schedule change?...

This afternoon for Upper-Levels, as mentioned in the Sam Recon thread

Two missions will fly this afternoon, the NOAAS P-3 research mission and Gonzo for upper atmosphere data that will be input to models.

A. THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY AN 8-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
AROUND SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 25/1830Z
B. THE NOAA 42 P-3 WILL FLY AN 8.5-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
INTO SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 25/1900Z

[underthwx]

No mention at all on the latest FD by the NHC of an EWRC any time soon, they still forecast steady strengthening through the next 48 hrs.

Edit: BTW, is there a recon going in today? I don't see one for today, I only see the one for tomorrow morning.

I thought Sunday also for recon....has there been a schedule change?...

This afternoon for Upper-Levels, as mentioned in the Sam Recon thread

Two missions will fly this afternoon, the NOAAS P-3 research mission and Gonzo for upper atmosphere data that will be input to models.

A. THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY AN 8-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
AROUND SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 25/1830Z
B. THE NOAA 42 P-3 WILL FLY AN 8.5-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
INTO SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 25/1900Z

Thanks for the info Ice.....

[Ubuntwo]

This afternoon for Upper-Levels, as mentioned in the Sam Recon thread

There's also a low-level recon flight leaving this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

This afternoon for Upper-Levels, as mentioned in the Sam Recon thread

There's also a low-level recon flight leaving this afternoon.

Yep. Noaa's Miss Piggy departs from St Croix at 3 PM EDT.

[Iceresistance]

This afternoon for Upper-Levels, as mentioned in the Sam Recon thread

There's also a low-level recon flight leaving this afternoon.

That's a very good thing, it will allow us to see the real intensity of Sam . . .

[storminabox]

Sam still looks great imo.

[underthwx]

This afternoon for Upper-Levels, as mentioned in the Sam Recon thread

There's also a low-level recon flight leaving this afternoon.

Yep. Noaa's Miss Piggy departs from St Croix at 3 PM EDT.

St. Croix?...oh wow.....I thought all NOAA flights originated from Biloxi?....

[cycloneye]

There's also a low-level recon flight leaving this afternoon.

Yep. Noaa's Miss Piggy departs from St Croix at 3 PM EDT.

St. Croix?...oh wow.....I thought all NOAA flights originated from Biloxi?....

They moved some planes. The NOAA ones.