ATL: SAM - Models

[AtlanticWind]

Coming in furthest west on the 0Z Euro vs 12Z with more ridging to the north. Let's see how far west though. The upper low over the E US is much weaker and is weakening/retrograding as a high builds in. Could get interesting, folks.

https://i.imgur.com/qaS7Yqk.png

Eye opening run , shows the possibilities still wide open .

[LarryWx]

Sam is recurving here but would it still hit further up the east coast? We'll never know because this run is over!

[Landy]

With the 12z Euro and 00z CMC I was starting to feel cautiously optimistic about OTS trends increasing but then 00z Euro happened. sigh Back to the model wars. One will cave for good eventually.

[hurricanetrack]

People are going to wake up and see this thread and be quite taken aback... guess it's never over 'til it's over....

[crownweather]

Big question is which guidance is "right". GFS with its early exit stage right or the Euro with a solid WNW track for the next 7-10 days. I have a hard time buying into the GFS just because it shows that low pressure near FL that transforms into multiple TCs. With that said, both UKMET & Canadian show that right turn as it closes in on 55-60W, which in some ways supports the GFS model.

IMO, I think TD 18 does get extremely close to the NE Caribbean bringing hurricane conditions to at least the northernmost Leeward Islands Wednesday night. Beyond that, I don't know....

[SouthFLTropics]

If that Euro run would continue I have to think it would have hit CONUS somewhere in the SE. The thumb ridge was still overhead and there isn’t a trough in site to sweep it out to sea. The only reason it gained any latitude at all was due to the dying out cutoff low over the Tennessee Valley.


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[LarryWx]

0Z EPS is at this point more threatening than the prior run but we'll see what % recurve before the CONUS. Looks like an arrow pointed for the CONUS here but I still expect a good % to recurve pretty sharply later in the run. We'll know soon:

[hurricanetrack]

If that Euro run would continue I have to think it would have hit CONUS somewhere in the SE. The thumb ridge was still overhead and there isn’t a trough in site to sweep it out to sea. The only reason it gained any latitude at all was due to the dying out cutoff low over the Tennessee Valley.


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And so it goes....just when we thought it was somewhat a done deal, here we are. Long days and nights ahead for the old S2K gang! Wouldn't have it any other way as this is part of what makes tracking hurricanes so interesting.

[kevin]

The Euro saw the east trends and said "I'll do you one better" and trended even further west. A true war of the models.

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS is at this point more threatening than the prior run but we'll see what % recurve before the CONUS. Looks like an arrow pointed for the CONUS here but I still expect a good % to recurve pretty sharply later in the run. We'll know soon:

https://i.imgur.com/Ofu4B94.png

Followup:

Most did recurve sharply and only a couple of members hit the CONUS (NC):

[mrbagyo]

Model stuff brought to us by 00z ECMWF simulated IR

[Zonacane]

Word of advice to those leaning towards the GFS solution; GFS recurved Irma hundreds of miles East for days before it correctly analyzed the ridge.

[kevin]

06z intensity guidance is the highest I've seen so far for this system. Both HMON and HWRF get this to a cat 4 by the end of their runs. Two extreme outliers aside, all models eventually at least get this system to a cat 2.

[tomatkins]

Word of advice to those leaning towards the GFS solution; GFS recurved Irma hundreds of miles East for days before it correctly analyzed the ridge.

That was the old GFS though.

[kevin]

06z GFS is about 90 miles further SW than 00z at +144 and similar in strength. Still way further east than the Euro.

[tolakram]

That 0Z Euro run. Still way too far out, as was the silly posts about all EPS members recurving. The pattern has not been figured out yet IMO.



That would bring the storm close to North Carolina IMO, but again pretty far out there.

[otowntiger]

The Euro saw the east trends and said "I'll do you one better" and trended even further west. A true war of the models.

https://i.imgur.com/ZR03bn5.png

looks ominous, but at that point it has already begun recurving. Even at this very westerly run it looks like it could even miss the Bahamas. I’m guessing the Euro will swing back east next run- the trough is going to be too stout.

[Geauxtigers_2019_9]

Any chance this gets into the GOM?

[kevin]

Any chance this gets into the GOM?

Never say never, but at the moment I think this is a highly unlikely scenario. No models seem to indicate this, save for one or two weak and probably unrealistic members in the Euro ensemble. So for now I don't think it's something to worry about. I will say that I have seen crazier shifts since I started storm tracking, especially with these open ocean storms.

[hurricanetrack]

Do you all notice what seems to be happening with the Euro if you look at the 500mb pattern? The trough seems to dig in and then split...leaving behind that upper low over the TN region with the ridge building back over the top and out to the east. With the warm NW Atlantic SST anomalies, this at least makes sense as the warmer water would support a stronger and more resilient ridge to build in after the trough split. Ten days out is 1/3 of a month. Wow. So much is going to happen between now and then but that trough split could be the key here. We shall see.