ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

I feel like you threw Martin County in their for your old Storm2k friend!

[otowntiger]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

. Lol- I think you could go ahead and add the rest of the FL counties up to Duval and your money would still be safe!

[Hugo1989]

This could be hurricane Luis 2.0

[lhpfish]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

. Lol- I think you could go ahead and add the rest of the FL counties up to Duval and your money would still be safe!

Hope you’re right

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/8YlcjP73KUQ[/youtube]

[wxman57]

As I stated above, I would expect the models to shift more westward over the next few days. The depression/Sam-to-be is near the southern edge of a SAL outbreak, which may steer it more westerly for a while. The SAL environment would also favor a small hurricane. Look for the NHC 5 day point to shift south and westward with time. It would have to pass nearly over the islands of the NE Caribbean to produce any strong TS or hurricane winds there, since it will be relatively small in size.

Hi. What is your synopsis of the ridge/trough patterns that you see and as you said, track may be a little bit south? You know why I ask. I and other S2K members that live in the NE Caribbean.

When I say south, I don't mean as far south as PR, though I wouldn't rule out a PR strike. Typically, storms traveling below a SAL outbreak head farther west before they start turning - farther west than the models predict at first. I think it could pass close enough to the NE Caribbean islands (not PR, the far NE) to bring TS winds there, possibly hurricane winds. It's too early to be very confident in the 5-7 day track. Let's see how it tracks compared to model projections. Look for a delayed turn in future model runs.

[toad strangler]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

I feel like you threw Martin County in their for your old Storm2k friend!

St Lucie County gets no love lol

[SouthFLTropics]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

I feel like you threw Martin County in their for your old Storm2k friend!

St Lucie County gets no love lol

We're like the red-headed step child... We're just stuck somewhere in the middle between South and Central Florida.

[jlauderdal]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

I feel like you threw Martin County in their for your old Storm2k friend!

I did because my last wager I had collier, st lucie and martin people mad at me because they felt left out so we are all back on the same team fighting a united front against landfall, ha.

[cycloneye]

As I stated above, I would expect the models to shift more westward over the next few days. The depression/Sam-to-be is near the southern edge of a SAL outbreak, which may steer it more westerly for a while. The SAL environment would also favor a small hurricane. Look for the NHC 5 day point to shift south and westward with time. It would have to pass nearly over the islands of the NE Caribbean to produce any strong TS or hurricane winds there, since it will be relatively small in size.

Hi. What is your synopsis of the ridge/trough patterns that you see and as you said, track may be a little bit south? You know why I ask. I and other S2K members that live in the NE Caribbean.

When I say south, I don't mean as far south as PR, though I wouldn't rule out a PR strike. Typically, storms traveling below a SAL outbreak head farther west before they start turning - farther west than the models predict at first. I think it could pass close enough to the NE Caribbean islands (not PR, the far NE) to bring TS winds there, possibly hurricane winds. It's too early to be very confident in the 5-7 day track. Let's see how it tracks compared to model projections. Look for a delayed turn in future model runs.

Ok thank you. Hopefully it clears all the islands including Bermuda and stay out at sea.

[msbee]

As I stated above, I would expect the models to shift more westward over the next few days. The depression/Sam-to-be is near the southern edge of a SAL outbreak, which may steer it more westerly for a while. The SAL environment would also favor a small hurricane. Look for the NHC 5 day point to shift south and westward with time. It would have to pass nearly over the islands of the NE Caribbean to produce any strong TS or hurricane winds there, since it will be relatively small in size.

Hi. What is your synopsis of the ridge/trough patterns that you see and as you said, track may be a little bit south? You know why I ask. I and other S2K members that live in the NE Caribbean.

When I say south, I don't mean as far south as PR, though I wouldn't rule out a PR strike. Typically, storms traveling below a SAL outbreak head farther west before they start turning - farther west than the models predict at first. I think it could pass close enough to the NE Caribbean islands (not PR, the far NE) to bring TS winds there, possibly hurricane winds. It's too early to be very confident in the 5-7 day track. Let's see how it tracks compared to model projections. Look for a delayed turn in future model runs.

Everyone in St Maarten is feeling nervous about this one. We all still have PTSD from Irma.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hi. What is your synopsis of the ridge/trough patterns that you see and as you said, track may be a little bit south? You know why I ask. I and other S2K members that live in the NE Caribbean.

When I say south, I don't mean as far south as PR, though I wouldn't rule out a PR strike. Typically, storms traveling below a SAL outbreak head farther west before they start turning - farther west than the models predict at first. I think it could pass close enough to the NE Caribbean islands (not PR, the far NE) to bring TS winds there, possibly hurricane winds. It's too early to be very confident in the 5-7 day track. Let's see how it tracks compared to model projections. Look for a delayed turn in future model runs.

Everyone in St Maarten is feeling nervous about this one. We all still have PTSD from Irma.

Dang, that's not surprising though. Very sorry to hear that. Having a 180 mph leviathan rampage through the island is something I'm pretty sure the residents there would never forget and want to remember, let alone happening again.

[SFLcane]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

Sheeeech….That’s a lot of money even though S2K deserves that and much more but your looking at nearly 2 weeks almost before if it ever approaches the Bahamas and lots Could and will change. We have been been beyond lucky in SFL but be careful our season is just getting primed as we move into Oct.

anyway back to TD 18

[Hurricane Mike]

This little guy bears watching.

[AutoPenalti]

This little guy bears watching.

I miss Teddy bears watching.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1440818658368839689



Pretty insane how few storms even existed near the 5-day forecast point this late in the year.

[Hurricane Mike]

8pm Video Update on TD-18
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3qchMLtG1w

[sma10]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

LOL!
Between climatology and all computer modeling, you're really going out on a risky limb here

[Ubuntwo]

Either losing some latitude, or getting vertically stacked.

[cycloneye]

Getting ready to fly soon.

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1440837705261219841