ATL: SAM - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Euro starting to cave to the GFS perhaps?

[gatorcane]

Euro starting to cave to the GFS perhaps?

Looks that way to me, north shift:

[KirbyDude25]

The 12Z CMC just released, and it does what's mostly been expected of 98L (this run passes it slightly north of the Antilles). However, it shows two more storms coming off of Africa, rather than the 0 or 1 I've seen from other models.

[supercane4867]

The wave behind 98L may pose more of a land threat

[AutoPenalti]

Massive shift E on the Euro.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 96-216 hour big shift north. Could be a Bermuda threat:

[chris_fit]

Easily OTS on the 12Z Euro - Massive shift N @ the 200+hr mark

Let's see if the ENS follow

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge is quickly building back in...may not be OTS-ish at 240.

[grapealcoholic]

Yikes.. euro basically splits the difference with GFS; keeps the cutoff but now with a lot more atlantic ridging. This setup could easily result in a new england landfall

This is literally the only setup that even supports a landfall I think. Would be the worst case scenario

[aspen]

12Z Euro 96-216 hour big shift north. Could be a Bermuda threat:

https://i.postimg.cc/MTXc5CQX/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-fh96-216.gif

The latest frame looks to be heading for a direct Cat 3 Bermuda landfall.

[AutoPenalti]

That's assuming the low will be at that exact position by hour 240.

[Shell Mound]

Yikes...Euro basically splits the difference with GFS; keeps the cutoff but now with a lot more atlantic ridging. This setup could easily result in a new england landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021092212/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_10.png

The setup depicts an Omega block over the Great Lakes with largely zonal flow downstream of the positively tilted, cutoff trough-axis. The overall orientation and retrogression would still suggest that 98L would curve sharply eastward, OTS, once past Bermuda. Climatology would also indicate that a well-developed system in its projected location would be most likely to curve OTS, simply based on seasonal wavelengths. Bermuda has experienced plenty of hurricanes during October, including CV-type systems such as storms in 1862, 1895, 1908, and 2014 (Gonzalo). Nicole (2016) also passed over Bermuda as a 105-kt Category-3 hurricane in October.

[grapealcoholic]

Yikes...Euro basically splits the difference with GFS; keeps the cutoff but now with a lot more atlantic ridging. This setup could easily result in a new england landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021092212/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_10.png

The setup depicts an Omega block over the Great Lakes with largely zonal flow downstream of the positively tilted, cutoff trough-axis. The overall orientation and retrogression would still suggest that 98L would curve sharply eastward, OTS, once past Bermuda. Climatology would also indicate that a well-developed system in its projected location would be most likely to curve OTS, simply based on seasonal wavelengths. Bermuda has experienced plenty of hurricanes during October, including CV-type systems such as storms in 1862, 1895, 1908, and 2014 (Gonzalo). Nicole (2016) also passed over Bermuda as a 105-kt Category-3 hurricane in October.

The cutoff is negatively tilted at +240

[skyline385]

So here's something i don't get, why are the models showing 98L recurving into a ridge building and not into the cut off low itself? Shouldnt physics dictate a movement towards the cut off low first?

[grapealcoholic]

So here's something i don't get, why are the models showing 98L recurving into a ridge building and not into the cut off low itself? Shouldnt physics dictate a movement towards the cut off low first?

You need a very strong negatively tilted trough. Wasn't quite there in this run

[LarryWx]

So here's something i don't get, why are the models showing 98L recurving into a ridge building and not into the cut off low itself? Shouldnt physics dictate a movement towards the cut off low first?

Keep in mind the counterclockwise steering flow around the upper low.

[chris_fit]

12Z Eps say not so fast OP....

[LarryWx]

Although the 12Z Euro is much less threatening to the US, the 12Z EPS is slightly less unthreatening than the tame 0Z EPS, which had almost no threats from the 51 members anywhere near the SE. This new run is back to a few threats/close calls with ~10% like that (NC, FL).

[Steve H.]

My gut feeling is that I’m keeping an eye on this sucker.

[SFLcane]