ATL: SAM - Models

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

It's been a while since we had such a dramatic difference of opinion between the two heavyweights. One of them is going to have egg on their face, the only question is will it be the Euro or the GFS.

[tolakram]

Maybe the Euro is wrong.

Could be, both models suffer badly in the fall, but the Euro is almost always better than the GFS for upper air patterns. I say almost while not being able to remember a case where the GFS was better.

[sma10]

Wow look at those low dew points into South Florida, same trough that could turn future Sam northward. It is a powerful trough to say the least. Won’t be feeling like hurricane weather here if the GFS is right that is fore sure

https://i.postimg.cc/zXDtG9Jc/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh126-174.gif

In what world does the southern tip of Florida get 60 degree dewpoint on Sep 29? Dubious, to say the least

[Blown Away]

The GFS continues showing that persistent L off the CONUS to recurve 98L. I’m not sure it will take 98L 8 days to make it just N of NE Caribbean, that’s where I think the Euro is correct.

[SFLcane]

Wow look at those low dew points into South Florida, same trough that could turn future Sam northward. It is a powerful trough to say the least. Won’t be feeling like hurricane weather here if the GFS is right that is fore sure

https://i.postimg.cc/zXDtG9Jc/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh126-174.gif

Sure, That is highly unlikely in my opinion those dews will never make it that far south. All cooling stays way north near northern Florida. Maybe in a few weeks

[grapealcoholic]

GFS op is a major outlier compared to ens

[kevin]

The one thing that all the models are in agreement on is that there will be a very strong MDR hurricane (especially for this late period of the MDR season) next week, where it will go is still anyone's guess. I almost always side with the Euro when it and GFS disagree, but since most models are also closer to GFS than the Euro (at least they were this morning) I'm not sure. It's not like the Euro has been faultless this season (far from it). As I mentioned in the discussion thread, these open ocean storms often have a worse-than-normal forecast accuracy since there is less data of the region. Once a recon plane arrives or once it moves west enough I think models will come much more into agreement. Just saying, don't be shocked if in a few days the track moves a few hundred miles further OTS or closer to the islands.

[SFLcane]

The GFS continues showing that persistent L off the CONUS to recurve 98L. I’m not sure it will take 98L 8 days to make it just N of NE Caribbean, that’s where I think the Euro is correct.

Somebody gotta cave soon.

[Steve H.]

Nah, we’re not going to get dues that low until after Halloween.

[grapealcoholic]

x is gfs op

[aspen]

The CMC so far looks to be the furthest south it has ever been with 98L. This might be another Maria-like run.

[skyline385]

Wow look at those low dew points into South Florida, same trough that could turn future Sam northward. It is a powerful trough to say the least. Won’t be feeling like hurricane weather here if the GFS is right that is fore sure

https://i.postimg.cc/zXDtG9Jc/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh126-174.gif

In what world does the southern tip of Florida get 60 degree dewpoint on Sep 29? Dubious, to say the least

Is it that extreme though? The average dew point for SFL in summer is 65-75. 60 isn't too far fetched if a strong trough hits the state?

[gatorcane]

It's been a while since we had such a dramatic difference of opinion between the two heavyweights. One of them is going to have egg on their face, the only question is will it be the Euro or the GFS.

Best bet is still to take the consensus meaning they will likely converge somewhere in the middle

[Steve H.]

Not extreme, but it’s been hot as hades here in central Florida. Hope it comes to pass, but I doubt it. Always sweating on Halloween.

[grapealcoholic]

Large SW to NE spread. And now there's a cluster that's pretty far south

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Ok cmc..

[SFLcane]

Interesting to say the least. Long ways to go with this one

[blp]

Big SW shift on the CMC. You can see the ridge just East of if getting stronger with each run.