ATL: SAM - Models

[tolakram]

300mb difference between the GFS and Euro

[Category5Kaiju]

GEFS shows that usual fork, with a decent number of models heading over the islands and another cluster dodging the islands and heading out to sea.

[kevin]

06z HWRF already has a TS at +33 (Thursday morning/noon), which could be in-line with the faster than expected organization that's visible on IR.

[tolakram]

Saving the GFS and Euro runs here. I'll use the Euro plot that includes 500mb (colors)

[aspen]

The HMON and HWRF, while showing different development speeds, finish off pretty much the same with a Cat 3 at roughly 15N/51-53W, further NE than previous runs.

[kevin]

06z HWRF, 6 hour intervals:

[kevin]

For my 1000th post I wanted to make something special, so here's an overview of the strongest eastern MDR hurricanes since 1851. With this I mean any storm that formed within the band from 10N to 20N, west of Africa but east of the Caribbean islands, specifically east of Barbados (so excluding the Caribbean). This is the region I mean:



In total 706 out of the 1630 tropical storms in the Atlantic since 1851 formed in this region. And these are the 20 strongest, by pressure (and by wind speed if the pressure was the same):

# / Year / Name / Min. pressure (mbar) / Max. winds (kt)

01 / 1988 / Gilbert / 888 / 160
02 / 1980 / Allen / 899 / 165
03 / 2007 / Dean / 905 / 150
04 / 2017 / Maria / 908 / 150
05 / 2019 / Dorian / 910 / 160
06 / 2004 / Ivan / 910 / 145
07 / 2017 / Irma / 914 / 155
08 / 1955 / Janet / 914 / 150
09 / 2003 / Isabel / 915 / 145
10 / 1932 / "Cuba" / 918 / 150
11 / 1989 / Hugo / 918 / 140
12 / 1961 / Esther / 919 / 140
13 / 1985 / Gloria / 919 / 125
14 / 1999 / Floyd / 921 / 135
15 / 1992 / Andrew / 922 / 150
16 / 1967 / Beulah / 923 / 140
17 / 1979 / David / 924 / 150
18 / 2010 / Igor / 924 / 135
19 / 1853 / "Three" / 924 / 130
20 / 2019 / Lorenzo / 925 / 140

[Blown Away]

00z EURO... More ensembles showing N of the Islands than 12z

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS not even close

[zhukm29]

The faster 98L develops, the more likely it will be pulled northward. Although I don't want to say anything too early, the EPS is shifting back north (personally I think the best track to follow is a blend of the GFS and Euro), so there is an increasing chance that we will see another Larry like storm, although perhaps stronger. Definitely will be a huge ACE maker!

Interests in the islands should still keep watch though, since it's just as easy for the models to switch back.

[Chemmers]

Looks like the hwrf and the euro are getting more inline of where the storm might be in 5 days time?

[Blown Away]

06 HWRF... A little faster and S of 00z... Forward speed seems to be an issues for the models, swinging back n forth...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Personally, I really do think the GFS is over-exaggerating the strength of 98L in 72-96 hours. Given how much Peter struggled a few days ago, I don't see how this could be approaching major hurricane status by then.

[Blown Away]

06z HMON

[kevin]

Overview of ACE totals for 98L based on different 00z/06z model runs:

--- short term --
HWRF06z = 10.5 up to 126 hours
HMON06z = 7.5 up to 126 hours

--- long term ---
GFS06z = 22.1 up to 240 hours
EURO00z = 18.2 up to 240 hours

[otowntiger]

https://i.imgur.com/E3UqD73.jpg
00z EURO... More ensembles showing N of the Islands than 12z

This system is still obviously a threat to the Lesser Antilles and PR- and even Hispaniola, but these tracks in combo with the GFS on average is not very threatening to the CONUS in my opinion, at this time. I dare say as we move forward the threat to the Islands may decrease.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It seems the GFS wants the remnants of Peter combined with a nontropical low to punch a weakness in the high. We should be able to see it that verifies soon enough

[Blown Away]

00z EURO...

[SFLcane]

[grapealcoholic]

https://i.postimg.cc/4dzpnKCg/9-D5-CE77-C-5431-4-AA6-8-F6-D-D30725-EE1-F6-A.gif

There's an entire cluster that's going south of PR. Not really any talk about that