ATL: SAM - Models

[AutoPenalti]

OTS moves well E of Bermuda. But the GFS run is sorta odd with that cut off low just lingering over florida.

[grapealcoholic]

Can already tell this HWRF run is going to be nutty

[IcyTundra]

00Z CMC

[CrazyC83]

00Z CMC
https://i.imgur.com/Ei7drFk.gif

Seeing that trough/cutoff low over the Northeast concurrent with a strong Sam ahead of it isn't a pattern I want to see.

[Teban54]

00Z CMC
https://i.imgur.com/Ei7drFk.gif

Almost identical to the last 2 runs. Thankfully not another W shift.

[AutoPenalti]

00Z CMC
https://i.imgur.com/Ei7drFk.gif

Almost identical to the last 2 runs. Thankfully not another W shift.

No there’s a west shift, just not as drastic.

[AJC3]

Through 144 hours, in additional to the initial SW trend of the first run or two, the op-ECM has trended slower with the forward speed and more intense the last 3 runs in a row.

[AJC3]

It's not just the ECM, but the global models in general are having a hard time resolving the pattern over central & eastern NOAM in about a week's time. Not that surprising for late September, but this really shows that there's no way to be able to reasonably or accurately speculate on the future of 98L/Sam beyond the possible impacts to the northern Leeward Islands and perhaps the BVI/USVI/PR.

[Keldeo1997]

The only difference this run is that its a full day slower

[AJC3]

Sfc/500mb comparison at 216hr...

[SouthFLTropics]

If the Euro went beyond 240, it looks like there would be an escape path to the North. Would possibly spare Florida but not sure about points further North.


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[kevin]

Final frame of the 00z Euro. I think it would still miss the US (barely) in this run or at least Florida if it went on longer, but the Bahamas could be hit. And when you're at the Bahamas it's only one W shift away from the CONUS. However, GFS is still way way further east (even though it is trending west). It could also be that reality will be a blend between the Euro and GFS and thus still east of the Bahamas and the US. All we can do is wait and see for now. Also, this run does go directly over many of the islands (Antigue & Barbuda, St. Kitts, Anguilla, The Virgin Islands) and almost scrapes Puerto Rico.

[otowntiger]

00Z CMC
https://i.imgur.com/Ei7drFk.gif

Seeing that trough/cutoff low over the Northeast concurrent with a strong Sam ahead of it isn't a pattern I want to see.

could you explain?

[Iceresistance]

FWIW the 0z ICON is much stronger so far than it's previous runs. Peaked in the upper 990's on the 18z run but it's already down to 972mb at hour 138. I know the ICON doesn't mean much, but that's yet another model showing a strong storm coming in threatening the islands.

EDIT: 966mb at the end of the run

ICON is like one of the most conservative models out there, never good when even it is dropping down to 966mb. What was the last system ICON was so bullish about? Ida?

The Euro model is also conservative as well, but it keeps bottoming out at 970 MB & has a Georges/Irma track . . .

[TheDreamTraveler]

It entering the Hebert Box also raises its odds of hitting the conus too. Should be interesting to watch later on

[jlauderdal]

Sfc/500mb comparison at 216hr...
https://i.imgur.com/SJmg3qp.png

Tony nailed it with this post and it just shows how differently the three models see the world right now. Climatology tells us east coast miss but that doesn't always work out and the models tend to underestimate the ridging, watch and wait as usual.

[aspen]

00z HWRF and HMON runs are further NE than their 12z and 18z runs.

[chris_fit]

I knew something was up when I didn't see much activity in here overnight..

00z EPS... Pretty much all the members recurve before 75w. Maybe 1 member shows US landfall? None in the Southeast / Florida

Hopefully the 12z builds on that.

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS is stronger earlier than 0z

[kevin]

06z GFS stronger than 00z and a tiny bit further NE at +114. Probably around/just below MH strength on this frame.

Edit: peaks as 956 mbar and OTS (east of Bermuda)