ATL: SAM - Models

[aspen]

Uhm isnt the HWRF-P (afaik P is Parent and not Parallel) the same as HWRF?

Due to its wider field of view, it likes to get its focus stuck on whatever low pressure area happens to be even a tiny bit deeper than the disturbance it’s supposed to be focusing on. There’s been this low over central Africa that the HWRF-P has gotten stuck on for many early runs of Peter and 98L.

So its a different run of the HWRF then?

No it shows the same storm evolution and environmental factors as the HWRF; it just has a wider FOV.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1440469596281053189

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS:

[Ubuntwo]

Comparing the GFS and Euro solutions. The Euro embeds ex-Odette in the mid latitudes and moves it out quickly. The GFS had ridging building back in over and above a subtropical Odette, shunting southward and interacting it with Rose. This whole process weakens the ridging above 98 allowing the system to gain more latitude.

Later in the forecast period, the Euro has a weaker and flatter trough moving across the US. Not only is the trough more amplified on the GFS, but its passage leads to an upper-level low cutting off in the southwest Atlantic (which eventually forms another TC). Lots to watch, most will change...

[aspen]

18z HWRF-P is garbage too. The 10m wind field and simulated IR structure are very low-res and “smooth”; this happens to systems that are not the main focus of the model run. We’ll have to wait until 00z for a good HWRF run.

[floridasun]

GFS vs Euro we will know by sunday the islands will be watching i bet by sunday

[jlauderdal]

That GFS run is whack. How does a storm manage to recurve right into a ridge? There's no obvious weakness that I see - just a stout ridge.



EDIT: Ninja'd by Wxtwitter

The gfs has done this before, toss the run

[skyline385]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1440469596281053189?

Thats from the 12Z run though?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1440454032959496192

[Fancy1001]

HMON Is a little weaker but further south west.

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1440454032959496192?

The GFS is not plowing it into the ridge. That ridge is weakening due to the mid-upper low across the Great Lakes:



All of the GFS ensembles are recurving but are closer to the islands:

[floridasun]

so who going win the gfs or Euro this runs going drive us cazy next few days so all about high building west or weakness left by peter

[AutoPenalti]

That’s not a ridge puncher, it’s the low the forms out of nowhere thanks to the stronger trough. The overall SW correction is concerning though.

[Keldeo1997]

18Z EPS is even more West.

[LarryWx]

The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.

[SFLcane]

The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.

Yep…

[sma10]

The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.

Larry, you are the "go-to guru" on this type of stuff: the Euro has 98L tracking W to WNW on 10/1 off the N coast of Hispaniola towards the Bahamas. When is the last time you can remember an October storm in that region tracking westerly? Would we have to go all the way back to Inez? Or maybe Kate?

[skyline385]

Looks like almost all members shifted west for the 18Z

[LarryWx]

The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.

Larry, you are the "go-to guru" on this type of stuff: the Euro has 98L tracking W to WNW on 10/1 off the N coast of Hispaniola towards the Bahamas. When is the last time you can remember an October storm in that region tracking westerly? Would we have to go all the way back to Inez? Or maybe Kate?

Klaus 1990:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1990.png

[sma10]

The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.

Larry, you are the "go-to guru" on this type of stuff: the Euro has 98L tracking W to WNW on 10/1 off the N coast of Hispaniola towards the Bahamas. When is the last time you can remember an October storm in that region tracking westerly? Would we have to go all the way back to Inez? Or maybe Kate?

Klaus 1990:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1990.png

Thank you, wow 31 years. And I doubt this one is just going to fizzle away like Klaus