2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

September 25 onwards is when the corner turns.

[Astromanía]

I really hope there is a recurve system that could bring rain for my area whitout making landfall in a populous region and without causing major damage, it's September and so far the year have been dry for me, its not funny when the city has water deficit. The Atlantic doesn't seem to be able to send a system near me and with the time to do it closing (as we near October), EPAC is my last hope

[Yellow Evan]

The fact the GFS and ECMWF are completely dead despite an incoming CCKW is somewhat alarming. Yes, meteorology!=modelology but it seems the base state has become much less favorable than the reasonably impressive start of the season. Then again this happens on occasion when MJO gets stuck over the IO for a while and I’m not yet quite sure why.

[Yellow Evan]

Ok that's something I suppose though really far west. Environment doesn't look too favorable with no ULAC present however.

[Kingarabian]

Euro been showing it for the past 4 runs. Never really gets going. But maybe if there's a strong enough ridge it'll be possible.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS now developing it:

[zzh]

TXPN22 KNES 180009
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 17/2330Z

C. 11.1N

D. 175.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE LLCC
WHICH RESULTS IN A DT EQUAL TO 1.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS OBSERVED A DEFINED LLCC AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION WAS
OBSERVED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Kingarabian]

it's been looking good. JTWC will take care of it but no mention from the CPHC.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS weaker because it moves the vorticity north but honestly this is a good upper environment.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN22 KNES 180603
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 18/0530Z

C. 10.1N

D. 176.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE CSC WHICH
RESULTS IN A DT EQUAL TO 1.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF doesn’t have it FWIW.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN22 KNES 181210
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 18/1130Z

C. 10.0N

D. 177.6W

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LOW LEVEL CENTER COULD NOT BE FOUND. POSITION BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET
AGREES WHILE PT IS LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS THAT PREVENT
LOWERING THE FT AT NIGHT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN22 KNES 181818
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 18/1730Z

C. 10.0N

D. 178.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF LESS THAN 1.0. PT
AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.0 BY DEFAULT. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS THAT
PREVENT LOWERING THE FT AT NIGHT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS barely develops the system

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days.
Gradual development of the system will be possible while it moves
generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS shows something.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN22 KNES 182356
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 18/2330Z

C. 10.0N

D. 179.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 2/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND A CSC THAT IS
NOW POORLY DEFINED. THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE
TO A LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND NO CLEAR CSC OBSERVED IN RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days.
Gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while
it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Despite 2 passing CCKWS 0z ECMWF shows zlich,

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days.
Gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while
it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the
latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.