ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

That shear is kicking *ss. Look at the rain shield already diminishing from the NW.

From my point of view...based on no data....just by looking ar the satellite imagery....it seems as though the bulk of the wet stuff will remain out in the gulf..courtesy of the shear....where it goes....who is on the receiving end I won't speculate..

[aspen]

Luckily for people in Texas, Nicholas is doing even worse that I thought it would. Rain is still a big problem though, and after what happened up here with Ida, I’m never underestimating the rainfall threat of a sloppy TC or a non-tropical remnant ever again.

[Nimbus]

Main threat in the Houston metro should be in SE Harris, Galveston County, Brazoria County, and Chambers County the rest of the Houston area should make it out ok.

Is the flood threat reduced for the Golden Triangle as well?

Jefferson County and Golden Triangle can still get hit pretty hard in terms of rain could be 10+ inches in some parts of the Golden Triangle.

Its impossible to forecast a stalling system with squall lines dumping 2-3 inches an hour until the setup appears on radar. Nicholas is moving pretty fast so if it gets far enough inland you may not have that issue. 10 inches of rain is probably manageable in most areas that aren't normally flooded by tropical storms.

[Iceresistance]

Luckily for people in Texas, Nicholas is doing even worse that I thought it would. Rain is still a big problem though, and after what happened up here with Ida, I’m never underestimating the rainfall threat of a sloppy TC or a non-tropical remnant ever again.

I always think that even if the system is non-tropical, the rainfall threat for them is always there . . . No matter how weak it is . . .

[Craters]

That shear is kicking *ss. Look at the rain shield already diminishing from the NW.

And look at that would-be thunderstorm over LA just exploding after the shear hits it. Wow! I've been watching these things for a while (not like some of you who will remain nameless, though), and I can't say that I've ever seen such a shear-based decimation like this before. I almost can't stop watching it.

[underthwx]

Luckily for people in Texas, Nicholas is doing even worse that I thought it would. Rain is still a big problem though, and after what happened up here with Ida, I’m never underestimating the rainfall threat of a sloppy TC or a non-tropical remnant ever again.

I always think that even if the system is non-tropical, the rainfall threat for them is always there . . . No matter how weak it is . . .

True that...

[aspen]

Luckily for people in Texas, Nicholas is doing even worse that I thought it would. Rain is still a big problem though, and after what happened up here with Ida, I’m never underestimating the rainfall threat of a sloppy TC or a non-tropical remnant ever again.

I always think that even if the system is non-tropical, the rainfall threat for them is always there . . . No matter how weak it is . . .

With Ida, I didn’t think that much of it because it was just a sloppy remnant system, and the models had hyped up Henri’s rainfall totals that ended up being like 2 inches at most here. For Ida, the models predicted half a foot, and we got half a foot, and it sucked. I guess it’s best to always prepare for the worst, even if there’s a chance the models could be overdoing rainfall totals.

[grapealcoholic]

Outflow seems to be improving

[utweather]

That shear is kicking *ss. Look at the rain shield already diminishing from the NW.

And look at that would-be thunderstorm over LA just exploding after the shear hits it. Wow! I've been watching these things for a while (not like some of you who will remain nameless, though), and I can't say that I've ever seen such a shear-based decimation like this before. I almost can't stop watching it.

If this storm would have come thru last month in the jungle rainforest air mass in place it would have been really bad. I saw the 60 inch total from euro yesterday and thought its too dry for that. It's been cool mornings the last week. Idk if Austin will get any rain out of this. I wonder if Ida pulled down some Canadian dry air over the central conus?

[grapealcoholic]

Nice upshear wrap. We should see a little bit of strengthening here

[underthwx]

Watching the satellite loop of Nicholas....it looks as if the rainbands are trying to advance on-shore....but I assume the shear keeps the rain just offshore..blowing it off to the North and East?...

[xironman]

Watching the satellite loop of Nicholas....it looks as if the rainbands are trying to advance on-shore....but I assume the shear keeps the rain just offshore..blowing it off to the North and East?...

The storm has shifted east. Given the shape of the TX coast in the area it keeps the heaviest bands offshore.

[grapealcoholic]

Tight little core showing up on radar now. We'll see if it persists

[SoupBone]

That shear is kicking *ss. Look at the rain shield already diminishing from the NW.

That shear is pretty much the only reason we're not all crapping our pants because a major was about to hit us. The ingredients for a potent hurricane were there, but shear crashed the party.

[underthwx]

Watching the satellite loop of Nicholas....it looks as if the rainbands are trying to advance on-shore....but I assume the shear keeps the rain just offshore..blowing it off to the North and East?...

The storm has shifted east. Given the shape of the TX coast in the area it keeps the heaviest bands offshore.

Yes.....that's what I have been watching..I am hesitant to say this....but here goes..is it possible that Nicholas doesn't landfall along the area currently thought?....perhaps maybe further Northward towards the Tx/La border?...it just seems to me by watching the satellite loops of Nicholas that it's moving parallel to the coast with a bit of NNE motion?..

[SoupBone]

Watching the satellite loop of Nicholas....it looks as if the rainbands are trying to advance on-shore....but I assume the shear keeps the rain just offshore..blowing it off to the North and East?...

The storm has shifted east. Given the shape of the TX coast in the area it keeps the heaviest bands offshore.

Yes.....that's what I have been watching..I am hesitant to say this....but here goes..is it possible that Nicholas doesn't landfall along the area currently thought?....perhaps maybe further Northward towards the Tx/La border?...it just seems to me by watching the satellite loops of Nicholas that it's moving parallel to the coast with a bit of NNE motion?..

I think the HRRR shows it skirting Texas and making landfall in SWLA, but don't quote me on that.

[xironman]

Good discussion by Stewart

Doppler velocity data from the Houston WSR-88D radar has shown a
large swath of hurricane-force wind speed speeds in the northeastern
quadrant of Nicholas' circulation above 12,000 ft during the past
couple of hours, with brief appearances of average velocities of
80-100 kt at high altitudes. Thus, there is an abundance of
large-scale cyclonic vorticity available for another burst of
intense convection to tap into, which could allow Nicholas to
approach hurricane strength by landfall. This would most likely
occur tonight during the convective maximum period near landfall
where increased frictional convergence along the coast could aid in
the development of convection on the west side of the circulation.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected owing to land
interaction, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of
30 kt, and entrainment of mid-level dry air from the southern
Plains. As a result of these negative conditions, Nicholas is
forecast to weaken to tropical depression by late Tuesday and
degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday.

[wxman57]

Doesn't make sense to ignore SFMR measurements and go with FL and Doppler conversion in a sheared environment. Not a 55kt storm.

[Iceresistance]

Luckily for people in Texas, Nicholas is doing even worse that I thought it would. Rain is still a big problem though, and after what happened up here with Ida, I’m never underestimating the rainfall threat of a sloppy TC or a non-tropical remnant ever again.

I always think that even if the system is non-tropical, the rainfall threat for them is always there . . . No matter how weak it is . . .

With Ida, I didn’t think that much of it because it was just a sloppy remnant system, and the models had hyped up Henri’s rainfall totals that ended up being like 2 inches at most here. For Ida, the models predicted half a foot, and we got half a foot, and it sucked. I guess it’s best to always prepare for the worst, even if there’s a chance the models could be overdoing rainfall totals.

True that...

Yes, I once had 2 circulations that made landfall in Texas in 2019, it was supposed to dissipate down there, but it ended up giving me Tropical Thunderstorms had had rain rates up to 5 inches per hour

[SouthernMet]

NHC 4pm update has Nicholas with sustained wind speeds at 65mph.