Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)

[Clearcloudz]

Looked at IR tonight.. yep this one has me eye now. Spicy

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png

I love me some spicy during the peak of hurricane season.

[cheezyWXguy]

As posted above, upper level winds look pretty favorable for this to take off if this avoids land. The gfs runs from a few days ago highlight the upper end of the potential here. My initial thoughts are that this goes into the mid Texas coast as mid-upper ts after scraping the coast, but there is the potential for a lot more if this stays offshore and I’d be on alert if I were in Houston

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1436478971558957062

This is slowly getting more and more worrying. The Gulf is plenty favorable for rapid genesis and intensification, and if soon-to-be-94L ends up staying east enough, RI is a real concern. At the very least, TX should be on alert for a lot of rain.

[IcyTundra]

At best it will be a whole lot of rain for Texas and at worse we could be looking at hurricane force conditions somewhere along the Texas coast with a whole lot of rain.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm personally pretty concerned about this one. If this stays far enough off the coast it might get nasty. It's early still, but we need to be watching for an overperformer here.

[Clearcloudz]

Josh Morgerman

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1436487243095363584

[grapealcoholic]

It's already got that look

[tropicwatch]

Not much happening at the surface yet. Might start seeing increases in close to surface vorticity tomorrow afternoon.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

[tolakram]

It's already got that look

Where?

[lsuhurricane]

A definitive uptick in Euro ensembles making something of this. Note that the stronger ensembles remain off the coast (in blue). Something to keep in mind if this trends stronger over the short term.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z EPS more members are showing hugging the texas coastline. Definitely need to be watching this trend going into 00Z runs now.

[SoupBone]

18Z EPS more members are showing hugging the texas coastline. Definitely need to be watching this trend going into 00Z runs now.

https://i.imgur.com/so8qQjP.gif

At least it's mostly weak when it impacts Houston. Likely high rain though.

[IcyTundra]

18Z EPS more members are showing hugging the texas coastline. Definitely need to be watching this trend going into 00Z runs now.

https://i.imgur.com/so8qQjP.gif

At least it's mostly weak when it impacts Houston. Likely high rain though.

EPS members often underestimate intensity as each member is run at a lower resolution than the operational Euro. I mainly use the EPS to evaluate where a storm will track and as well all know forecasting intensity is the hardest thing about forecasting tropical cyclones.

[cheezyWXguy]

18Z EPS more members are showing hugging the texas coastline. Definitely need to be watching this trend going into 00Z runs now.

https://i.imgur.com/so8qQjP.gif

At least it's mostly weak when it impacts Houston. Likely high rain though.

EPS members aren’t really a good gauge on actual intensity, but are good for trends and tendencies. For example, the easternmost members, including those targeting houston, are the strongest. I see that as a bit concerning.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Man the convection over land is helping spin up a bit of vorticity. thing is some models show this hovering around Houston Tx as a tropical rainstorm. If it instead pulls a Mitch and hovers next to Houston we could see serious trouble. However this is the worst case scenario and quite unlikely to happen. I think a mid grade ts scraping the gulf coast is most likely IMO.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z EPS more members are showing hugging the texas coastline. Definitely need to be watching this trend going into 00Z runs now.

https://i.imgur.com/so8qQjP.gif

Quick update some of these individual ensemble runs are showing 25+ inches of rain in parts of the texas coastline as the system slows down, 00Z Euro could be epic. I'm ready with my popcorn.

[tolakram]

18Z euro a tad east

[wxman57]

With the upper ridge centered over southern Mexico, the disturbance would encounter increasing southwest to westerly wind shear as it nears Texas. That would not support the 18Z GFS solution. Still looks like rain for Texas being the main impact. To me, this means I'm working all weekend for will most likely be a weak, sheared TS impact. I have the center moving inland near the TX/MX border Monday then tracking slowly NE, bringing lots of rain to Texas.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z soundings showing warm cloud layer with strong updrafts resulting in a efficient rainfall producing system. Somewhere in Texas this will produce some epic rainfall based on the soundings.

18Z GFS Sounding



18Z EURO Sounding

[IcyTundra]

Euro and GFS are in agreement with a track further north making landfall along the Texas coast. Track further north= more time over water which would give it more time to intensify. I am quite bullish on this and I think the best case scenario is a mid grade TS with the worst case scenario being a hurricane possibly a strong cat 1 or a weak cat 2.

Edit: This is assuming the Euro and GFS are right about a more northern track obviously this thing could still stay as a weak TS if it goes into Mexico but the models have been trending away from a Mexico landfall today.