Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)

[Cpv17]

Long ways to go with this one. Wouldn’t take any model run to the bank yet.

[SoupBone]

Long ways to go with this one. Wouldn’t take any model run to the bank yet.

I'm not so sure about that. Rainfall starts on Sunday? Not a lot of time to do anything other than hunker down.

[Cpv17]

Long ways to go with this one. Wouldn’t take any model run to the bank yet.

I'm not so sure about that. Rainfall starts on Sunday? Not a lot of time to do anything other than hunker down.

I’m not buying it yet. GFS barely has a inch for my area. Euro has a flood. Quite a disparity.

[SoupBone]

Long ways to go with this one. Wouldn’t take any model run to the bank yet.

I'm not so sure about that. Rainfall starts on Sunday? Not a lot of time to do anything other than hunker down.

I’m not buying it yet. GFS barely has a inch for my area. Euro has a flood. Quite a disparity.

No doubt, that's complete craziness. I'm just saying, we've seen these before. Harvey gave so many people PTSD with its Euro rainfall runs. Not that I think it will be like that, just something to think about.

[Clearcloudz]

18 EPS Ensemble Run

[Clearcloudz]

Long ways to go with this one. Wouldn’t take any model run to the bank yet.

I'm not so sure about that. Rainfall starts on Sunday? Not a lot of time to do anything other than hunker down.

I’m not buying it yet. GFS barely has a inch for my area. Euro has a flood. Quite a disparity.

Just because 1 run of the GFS is not showing it doesn't mean that there isn't model agreement. 12Z and 18Z Run backed off a little.
Take a look at 00Z and 06Z runs from earlier this morning.

00Z Run


06Z Run

[Wampadawg]

Alot of the local Weather Mets are talking up significant rain regardless I wonder mmm

[Cpv17]

I'm not so sure about that. Rainfall starts on Sunday? Not a lot of time to do anything other than hunker down.

I’m not buying it yet. GFS barely has a inch for my area. Euro has a flood. Quite a disparity.

Just because 1 run of the GFS is not showing it doesn't mean that there isn't model agreement. 12Z and 18Z Run backed off a little.
Take a look at 00Z and 06Z runs from earlier this morning.

00Z Run
https://i.imgur.com/wjGSqEg.png

06Z Run
https://i.imgur.com/oQKwtyJ.png

I know that. That’s still a big difference from the Euro either way. Even the GEFS isn’t that impressed. Has the heaviest rains offshore and pointed at SW LA. Will the heavy rains be further inland like the Euro shows? I tend to think they will especially if it’s a closed system. I’m just not sure yet if the bullseye will be on SE TX or SW LA..or even offshore. Yeah, the setup is there for a big ticket event but where and how much is what I want to see more agreement on before I really buy into anything.

[Wampadawg]

I hear yeah , clarity sooner than later would be wonderful but not always realistic i guess

[Clearcloudz]

I’m not buying it yet. GFS barely has a inch for my area. Euro has a flood. Quite a disparity.

Just because 1 run of the GFS is not showing it doesn't mean that there isn't model agreement. 12Z and 18Z Run backed off a little.
Take a look at 00Z and 06Z runs from earlier this morning.

00Z Run
https://i.imgur.com/wjGSqEg.png

06Z Run
https://i.imgur.com/oQKwtyJ.png

I know that. That’s still a big difference from the Euro either way. Even the GEFS isn’t that impressed. Has the heaviest rains offshore and pointed at SW LA. Will the heavy rains be further inland like the Euro shows? I tend to think they will especially if it’s a closed system. I’m just not sure yet if the bullseye will be on SE TX or SW LA..or even offshore. Yeah, the setup is there for a big ticket event but where and how much is what I want to see more agreement on before I really buy into anything.

I agree we still need a few more model cycles to know but if the Euro continues with its idea it can't be ignored because in the past it tends to lead other models in figuring out the pattern not to mention once we get in the 3 to 5 day window Euro tends to be very good.

[SoupBone]

Ehhhh the Euro hasn't been that great this year with tropical systems, but with rainfall I don't know. I think this still has a decent chance of the higher rain staying offshore, but it's going to like threading a needle.

[Cpv17]

Just because 1 run of the GFS is not showing it doesn't mean that there isn't model agreement. 12Z and 18Z Run backed off a little.
Take a look at 00Z and 06Z runs from earlier this morning.

00Z Run
https://i.imgur.com/wjGSqEg.png

06Z Run
https://i.imgur.com/oQKwtyJ.png

I know that. That’s still a big difference from the Euro either way. Even the GEFS isn’t that impressed. Has the heaviest rains offshore and pointed at SW LA. Will the heavy rains be further inland like the Euro shows? I tend to think they will especially if it’s a closed system. I’m just not sure yet if the bullseye will be on SE TX or SW LA..or even offshore. Yeah, the setup is there for a big ticket event but where and how much is what I want to see more agreement on before I really buy into anything.

I agree we still need a few more model cycles to know but if the Euro continues with its idea it can't be ignored because in the past it tends to lead other models in figuring out the pattern not to mention once we get in the 3 to 5 day window Euro tends to be very good.

I think by 12z tomorrow we’ll have more confidence.

[floridasun78]

nhc have it going inland into mexico not moving north

[IcyTundra]

nhc have it going inland into mexico not moving north

That scenario would still lead to a good amount of rainfall across Texas.

[Stormcenter]

I believe the NHC had what became IDA eventually moving into Mexico way in the beginning of its inception.
Well we know how that turned out.

nhc have it going inland into mexico not moving north

[IcyTundra]

00Z GEFS has even more support than the 18Z GEFS

[IcyTundra]

2 AM TWO increases the chances of development to 30/60.

[ElectricStorm]

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea,
and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is forecast to
move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface
trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western
Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance
is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central
America through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[aspen]

Maybe this has potential. If there’s anything we’ve seen this year, it’s that the Gulf should NEVER be underestimated. This will be over extremely warm SSTs for its 24-48hrs over water, so depending on how far off the coast is remains, we could see a rapid spin-up into a concerning storm.

[xironman]

If it stays offshore and that upper ridge builds in across the western gulf things could get interesting.



If enough moisture comes in from the pacific the dry air won't be an issue