ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Expect this to go haywire tonight due to DMAX given the marginal SST’s but don’t expect much until then. The best conditions however aren’t until 48 hours from now when SST’s easily exceed 27C when the window likely opens for at least 125 knots.

[sikkar]

Looks like it peaked few ours ago. What's causing that ragged appearance besides lower OHC?

[tolakram]

Wow. Saved loop

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like it peaked few ours ago. What's causing that ragged appearance besides lower OHC?

Probably finishing up the ERC and working out some dry air. Towers seem to be firing again near the core

[gatorcane]

Impressive:

[aspen]

Interesting. The NHC calls for a 120 kt peak in 24 hours, then weakening to a high-end 3, followed by a second Cat 4 peak.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting. The NHC calls for a 120 kt peak in 24 hours, then weakening to a high-end 3, followed by a second Cat 4 peak.

Yeah that's what the expectation was. It'll do much better further NW.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Interesting. The NHC calls for a 120 kt peak in 24 hours, then weakening to a high-end 3, followed by a second Cat 4 peak.

Yeah that's what the expectation was. It'll do much better further NW.

Especially if it fully attains annular status it will be immune to specific types of weakening until the annular structure decays

[tolakram]

Wide shot. showing how large Larry is.

[RL3AO]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/883769747546734642/50c49ebd-d8b7-420a-9900-448acdcba6cf.png

Still T5.0. Not convinced this is as strong as the NHC or well Papin says tbh.

Tropopause temperature is about -65C which matches up with the light grey cdo. Only the strongest updrafts are getting into the stratosphere which we can see with the blacks and whites rotating cyclonically. With the mediocre OHC I'm not sure this will get the cdo of -70 or -75 cloud tops. However since most of the Dvorak technique was developed based on West Pacific storms or off storms in the warmer parts of the Atlantic, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds winds higher than the Dvorak estimates would suggest.

Does anyone remember if some of these category 4/5 storms in this part of the ocean like Isabel that have received recon have matched up with their Dvorak estimates?

[aspen]

Satellite estimates have dropped to support 100 kt, maybe 105 kt maximum. I don’t think Larry is weakening but it definitely isn’t intensifying. We might not see a Cat 4 until after it passes through the weak TUTT.

[kevin]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/883769747546734642/50c49ebd-d8b7-420a-9900-448acdcba6cf.png

Still T5.0. Not convinced this is as strong as the NHC or well Papin says tbh.

Tropopause temperature is about -65C which matches up with the light grey cdo. Only the strongest updrafts are getting into the stratosphere which we can see with the blacks and whites rotating cyclonically. With the mediocre OHC I'm not sure this will get the cdo of -70 or -75 cloud tops. However since most of the Dvorak technique was developed based on West Pacific storms or off storms in the warmer parts of the Atlantic, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds winds higher than the Dvorak estimates would suggest.

Does anyone remember if some of these category 4/5 storms in this part of the ocean like Isabel that have received recon have matched up with their Dvorak estimates?

Not sure about other similar hurricanes, but Isabel's Dvorak values peaked at 6.7 (Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/archive2003/ISABEL-list.txt), equivalent to 928.4mb/132.2kt. Recon found 915mb/145kt. So while a sample size of one isn't really big, the specific case of Isabel did show significantly weaker Dvorak estimates compared to what recon found.

[RL3AO]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/883769747546734642/50c49ebd-d8b7-420a-9900-448acdcba6cf.png

Still T5.0. Not convinced this is as strong as the NHC or well Papin says tbh.

Tropopause temperature is about -65C which matches up with the light grey cdo. Only the strongest updrafts are getting into the stratosphere which we can see with the blacks and whites rotating cyclonically. With the mediocre OHC I'm not sure this will get the cdo of -70 or -75 cloud tops. However since most of the Dvorak technique was developed based on West Pacific storms or off storms in the warmer parts of the Atlantic, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds winds higher than the Dvorak estimates would suggest.

Does anyone remember if some of these category 4/5 storms in this part of the ocean like Isabel that have received recon have matched up with their Dvorak estimates?

Not sure about other similar hurricanes, but Isabel's Dvorak values peaked at 6.7 (Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/archive2003/ISABEL-list.txt), equivalent to 928.4mb/132.2kt. Recon found 915mb/145kt. So while a sample size of one isn't really big, the specific case of Isabel did show significantly weaker Dvorak estimates compared to what recon found.

I'm sure someone has done the research but I wouldn't be surprised if an annular type storm is just more efficient with its wind processes compared to it's updraft strength and cloud top temperature.

[Kingarabian]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/883769747546734642/50c49ebd-d8b7-420a-9900-448acdcba6cf.png

Still T5.0. Not convinced this is as strong as the NHC or well Papin says tbh.

Tropopause temperature is about -65C which matches up with the light grey cdo. Only the strongest updrafts are getting into the stratosphere which we can see with the blacks and whites rotating cyclonically. With the mediocre OHC I'm not sure this will get the cdo of -70 or -75 cloud tops. However since most of the Dvorak technique was developed based on West Pacific storms or off storms in the warmer parts of the Atlantic, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds winds higher than the Dvorak estimates would suggest.

Does anyone remember if some of these category 4/5 storms in this part of the ocean like Isabel that have received recon have matched up with their Dvorak estimates?

I believe Isabel achieved an average T7.0 on September 11. Dropped down to T6.5 the following day, September 12.

[MJGarrison]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/883769747546734642/50c49ebd-d8b7-420a-9900-448acdcba6cf.png

Still T5.0. Not convinced this is as strong as the NHC or well Papin says tbh.

Tropopause temperature is about -65C which matches up with the light grey cdo. Only the strongest updrafts are getting into the stratosphere which we can see with the blacks and whites rotating cyclonically. With the mediocre OHC I'm not sure this will get the cdo of -70 or -75 cloud tops. However since most of the Dvorak technique was developed based on West Pacific storms or off storms in the warmer parts of the Atlantic, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds winds higher than the Dvorak estimates would suggest.

Does anyone remember if some of these category 4/5 storms in this part of the ocean like Isabel that have received recon have matched up with their Dvorak estimates?

Thats interesting that it was developed off of West Pacific storms. If the Atlantic varies a bit, you’d think they could have a specific technique for the Atlantic. A lot of Atlantic storms get recon and so they get accurate wind data. That data plus the Dvorak number could easily create a more accurate Atlantic scale.


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[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1434302512941518849

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1434302512941518849

Beautiful.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT27 KNES 042357
TCSNTL

A. 12L (LARRY)

B. 04/2331Z

C. 17.9N

D. 47.3W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT
OF 4.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 4.5 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 5.0 BASED ON A WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[aspen]

Here, have a microwave pass that isn’t garbage:


The northern eyewall is still dominant, but the south part has become stronger. This reflects how convection has smoothed out around the eye over the last few hours.