Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Wouldn't be totally surprised to see an EWRC take place overnight. HWRF has been hinting that would happen and a massive eye would appear after that.
Appears that’s what occurring as the eye is shrinking.
ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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MarioProtVI
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Appears that’s what occurring as the eye is shrinking.
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Based on the latest trends, I'd assess the current intensity at 110 kt.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Really would be nice to have a good microwave pass to how it’s ERC is going. IR has given hints of an ERC through the day but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s inner eyewall was being stubborn.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:Based on the latest trends, I'd assess the current intensity at 110 kt.
Agreed, I expect the NHC's next update to put Larry at 110 kt. ADT supports 110kt/953mb (CI# 5.8). Also here's the latest IR loop.
Edit: ADT is a bit jumpy now (it jumps around between 5.5 and 5.8) so perhaps 105kt is a better estimate for now.
Last edited by kevin on Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
The Best Track is still 100 kts. Could change by advisory time.
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Meteophile
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
I'd say 100kts, probably not much more. Dvorak is often misleading with storms not having a complete "finished" structure. This one is still struggling to get its structure right (the inner eyewall doesn't seem to want to collapse yet).
That said, it may intensify fast once it gets its structure "done".
That said, it may intensify fast once it gets its structure "done".
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Yeah 100-105kts max. Its in another ERC,
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like a much larger eye is trying to clear out.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like the most recent EWRC is well underway and progressing at a good pace. It might be done within 12 hours.
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Much easier to go annular with this structure:
I think we'll easily get to 125-130kts within the next 48-72 hours. Not sure how much OHC there is to get a Cat.5 but that may be in the cards too.
I think we'll easily get to 125-130kts within the next 48-72 hours. Not sure how much OHC there is to get a Cat.5 but that may be in the cards too.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Current satellite estimates (SATCON, ADT, CIMSS AMSU, etc) support an intensity between 105 kt and 115 kt. I’d go with 110 kt; Larry is rapidly improving after its EWRC, but it’s not quite good enough to be called a Cat 4 yet. It’ll likely be one this afternoon, however, and its annular structure will help it maintain Cat 4 intensity for several days.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Distance estimates on wxnerds show the eye to be a good 40 miles wide! Impressive looking this morning.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
110 kts.
AL, 12, 2021090412, , BEST, 0, 165N, 452W, 110, 958, HU
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Larry does look like he wants to go annular at some point.
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DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Larry does look like he wants to go annular at some point.
According to the SHIPS index it's there already:
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Larry does look like he wants to go annular at some point.
https://i.imgur.com/92yLHRW.jpg
According to the SHIPS index it's there already:## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Marginally, so on its way.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
The HWRF is still forecasting an excellent UL setup on Monday as it moves over 28.0-28.5C SSTs and 35-50 OHC, before shear begins to kick in about 24-48 hours later. Since Larry is likely to become annular this weekend, another EWRC seems less likely, and it’ll be quite resistant to dry, low-shear environments. My guess is that it’ll peak as a 130-135 kt annular Cat 4 Sunday night into early Monday, as it makes its closest approach to the Leeward Islands. This would be a great opportunity for recon.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Larry does look like he wants to go annular at some point.
https://i.imgur.com/92yLHRW.jpg
According to the SHIPS index it's there already:## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Looks like it’s just marginal at this point, which I would agree with. The microwave structure posted above suggests it will probably be fully annular soon though
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