ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

5.0.

. 12L (LARRY)

B. 03/2330Z

C. 15.4N

D. 42.5W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS AN OW EYE TEMP WITH A LG RING TEMP AND IS
EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN AN EYE PATTERN DT OF 5.0. IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY THE SYSTEM IS ATTEMPTING TO GET A BLACK RING TEMP SURROUNDING
THE EYE AND THERE IS A BURST OF DEEP COLD CONVECTION WRAPPING IN ON THE
SE QUADRANT OF THE EYE WALL INDICATING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 24 HR
TREND IS DEVELOPING. MET AND PT ARE 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[abajan]

https://i.postimg.cc/hPzSFp8G/Hurricane-Larry-Sep321-R.png
Easily a 115 mph Hurricane now, however I dont see the nhc taking a 15 mph jump. Calling for 110 mph at 11.

I feel pretty confident they'll go with 115 mph at 11.

[aspen]

90 kt/T#5.0 from the manual Dvorak fix.

103 kt SATCON consensus.

100 kt from ADT.

108 kt from CIMSS AMSU.

104 kt from SSMIS.

84.8 kt from ATMS.

Averaging these out and excluding the low outlier of CIRA ATMS (only 71 kt) gives an estimate of 98.3 kt, enough to justify an upgrade to a major at 11pm. If you exclude ATMS, which also seems too low (Larry was assessed as an 85 kt storm before its eye cleared out), the average estimate is 101.0 kt.

Edit: ADT just went up to 104.6 kt, raising the averages to 99.1 kt and 101.9 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

AL, 12, 2021090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 427W, 100, 964, HU

[Stormybajan]

AL, 12, 2021090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 427W, 100, 964, HU

There it is...Major Hurricane Larry

[galaxy401]

That makes it three Majors this season so far. Not bad at all.

[Hammy]

That makes it three Majors this season so far. Not bad at all.

And in just two weeks' time.

[abajan]

AL, 12, 2021090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 427W, 100, 964, HU

964 mb?
Am I reading that right? If correct, that's a significant drop from what's stated in the 5 PM advisory.

[ElectricStorm]

Third major of the year already. On September 3...

[cycloneye]

Looks like NHC will not make a special advisory and wait for the 11 PM regular one.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not surprised to see Larry begin to rapid intensify. Had the structure for it all day.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye temp in the positives

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.7 6.1

Center Temp : +0.8C

[ouragans]

Looks like NHC will not make a special advisory and wait for the 11 PM regular one.

There is no threat to any land, they won't do special advisory just to inform Larry reached cat. 3

[Teban54]

Looks like NHC will not make a special advisory and wait for the 11 PM regular one.

There is no threat to any land, they won't do special advisory just to inform Larry reached cat. 3

There was an update a few days ago just to put Larry at 55 kts though.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Eye temp in the positives

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.7 6.1

Center Temp : +0.8C

Wow! Was this intensification expected?

[CrazyC83]

As far as special advisories, they will sometimes do it if the intensification was completely unexpected. Like, for example, if satellite found a category 4 and they had to significantly update the intensities.

That 964 mb pressure is just an estimate...there are no planes out there and likely won't be for a while. Maybe early next week if Bermuda comes into play.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1433983191375695876




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1433984514427023364

[SconnieCane]

Eye temp in the positives

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.7 6.1

Center Temp : +0.8C

Wow! Was this intensification expected?

Yes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wouldn't be totally surprised to see an EWRC take place overnight. HWRF has been hinting that would happen and a massive eye would appear after that.