ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Based on visible imagery and microwave, I think the original small eyewall from yesterday has dissolved, and a larger one is forming just like the HWRF was insisting. The question is how large that eye will be, and whether or not it’ll become annular. However, since it’ll be a large eye, it’ll take a while to fully form and begin clearing, and we probably won’t see a ton of intensification until it finally solidified.

[cycloneye]

New intensity peak is 120 kt.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N 49.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

[aspen]

The NHC talks about how the ECMWF-based SHIPS forecasts increased shear and dry air after 84 hours. Under normal circumstances, this would weaken Larry, but it could be annular at this time and almost impossible to kill. Also, they mention that the GFS-based SHIPS does not show that hostile shear. If the environment around Larry is favorable in the 96-144hr range, it will likely either maintain its intensity or become stronger, as it’ll be moving through a region of much higher OHC — up to 5 times more than what it’s currently going through.

[Blown Away]

[kevin]

https://i.imgur.com/MA19z0O.gif

Larry's starting to come together. Wouldn't be surprised if ADT skyrockets tomorrow or so once an eye pops out.

[abajan]

Forecast Disco Excerpt:

Larry's environmental conditions appear very favorable for
additional intensification over the next 60-72 hours. In fact, the
primarily forecast challenge relates to how Larry's core structure
evolves over the next several days. Right now, the inner-core and
hurricane-force wind radii are very small relative to the expanding
tropical-storm-force wind field around the storm. Thus, it appears
likely that Larry will undergo some form of an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) in the next 12 to 24 hours, which may slow down the
short term intensification rate. However, once this cycle is
complete, very light easterly vertical wind shear between 2-8 kt,
abundant mid-level moisture, and sufficently warm sea-surface
temperatures between 27-28 C should favor steady to rapid
intensification. The latest NHC intensity forecast now calls for a
peak intensity of 120 kt in roughly 72 hours, which is a faster and
slightly higher peak than the prior forecast.

[Iceresistance]

Larry is at the far right of the image, there is good outflow developing from the system . . .



Steering profiles is showing a due west motion within Larry towards the Lesser Antilles
200-700 MB


700-850 MB

[InfernoFlameCat]

Going to bet Larry becomes a Cat 5. Call me bullish but I see massive potential.

[Teban54]

Larry is at the far right of the image, there is good outflow developing from the system . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8shr.gif

Steering profiles is showing a due west motion within Larry towards the Lesser Antilles
200-700 MB
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8dlm6.gif

700-850 MB
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8dlm1.gif

Is that wall of shear to the north and south induced by Larry or has it always been there?

[Iceresistance]

Larry is at the far right of the image, there is good outflow developing from the system . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8shr.gif

Steering profiles is showing a due west motion within Larry towards the Lesser Antilles
200-700 MB
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8dlm6.gif

700-850 MB
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8dlm1.gif

Is that wall of shear to the north and south induced by Larry or has it always been there?

I think Larry induced some of the wind shear, there is outflow developing from the center of the system . . .

[weeniepatrol]

[Shell Mound]

Given the current rate of westward shifts, three more model cycles could bring Larry rather close to Hebert Box #1. Leewards and Bermuda should keep watch.

At this point, the significant westward shifts for days on end are starting to be a bit reminiscent of Irma’s (2017). If trends continue for three more cycles, well...

[cheezyWXguy]

Large eye clearly trying to form, this is going to be a very different looking storm this time tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

Given the current rate of westward shifts, three more model cycles could bring Larry rather close to Hebert Box #1. Leewards and Bermuda should keep watch.

Most of the westward shifts stopped yesterday. If anything most of the models have drifted east over the last couple runs.

[AutoPenalti]

Given the current rate of westward shifts, three more model cycles could bring Larry rather close to Hebert Box #1. Leewards and Bermuda should keep watch.

At this point, the significant westward shifts for days on end are starting to be a bit reminiscent of Irma’s (2017). If trends continue for three more cycles, well...

GFS 12z shifted back SW from 06z but still east enough to miss Bermuda.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Given the current rate of westward shifts, three more model cycles could bring Larry rather close to Hebert Box #1. Leewards and Bermuda should keep watch.

At this point, the significant westward shifts for days on end are starting to be a bit reminiscent of Irma’s (2017). If trends continue for three more cycles, well...

Well if this were to be Irma then the recurring models keeping show has to drop by Sunday at the latest. And I just don't see that happening. Certainly some worrying trends but the recurve is very strong here and that's a good indicator.

Bermuda should watch this but I'm more and more confidence Larry isn't approaching the US.

[Sciencerocks]

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433488510217072643

[Stormybajan]

Even if Hurricane Larry takes a more WNW track, I dont think this is something the NE leewards should have to worry about. I think the biggest concern for impacts is Bermuda 100%

[cycloneye]

https://i.postimg.cc/JhMw8wK4/Hurricane-Larry-Sep221-A.png
Even if Hurricane Larry takes a more WNW track, I dont think this is something the NE leewards should have to worry about. I think the biggest concern for impacts is Bermuda 100%

Big waves will go to the Leewards, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico next week.