ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

01/2330 UTC 12. 01/2330 UTC 12.4N 29.7W T3.5/3.5 LARRY
01/1730 UTC 12.5N 28.3W T4.0/4.0 LARRY

Larry losing latitude and not quite as strong...

[msbee]

Should I be worried about this storm?

Not yet, pretty much every model shows missing NE Caribbean, but the same models keep shifting SW each run. Gotta watch IMO.

Thanks

[msbee]

Should I be worried about this storm?

Hi Barbara. Watch it but all indications that will move well NE of the NE Caribbean Islands unless something big unexpected happens and moves very close.

Thanks Luis

[ouragans]

Tropical Storm LARRY
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 02, 2021:

Location: 12.6°N 30.1°W
Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 20 nm
50 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

[aspen]

That massive outer band will likely need to die out in order for core convection to flourish and this to continue RI. So far the eye is normal size, but it can fall apart without more deep convection than what’s already there.

[Teban54]

Is it just me or is Larry not looking as impressive as it did earlier? Not doubting its peak intensity, but this slight delay in organization could mean it stays weaker and thus further west in the short term.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Is it just me or is Larry not looking as impressive as it did earlier? Not doubting its peak intensity, but this slight delay in organization could mean it stays weaker and thus further west in the short term.

Agree lots of dry slots, the 00z T #’s were down a bit... No doubt Larry will be a Major eventually IMO!!!

[galaxy401]

Not too surprised that Larry has stopped strengthening. That region is always marginal with cooler SSTs and some dry air. Should still become a hurricane soon (already looks to be improving again).

[weeniepatrol]

peak intensity raised again to 110 kt

[SconnieCane]

60+ hours AOA 105 kt...hello ACE.

[ElectricStorm]

Firing some nice convection near the center now. Once it gets rid of that big band to the west it should take off even more. Should be a hurricane soon. ADT is already at 4.6 but raw Ts are only 3.8. Not sure I've ever seen the raw T lower than the final and adjusted Ts before so not sure what's up with that.

[Sciencerocks]

[sikkar]

Odd looking on IR but appears to be tightening.

[Stormybajan]

Not sure what to make of Larry at the moment...looks like convection is on the increase again but whats with the massive convective band ahead of it...

[Subtrop]

AL, 12, 2021090206, , BEST, 0, 129N, 314W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 30, 60, 1010, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LARRY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,
AL, 12, 2021090206, , BEST, 0, 129N, 314W, 65, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 30, 1010, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LARRY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,
AL, 12, 2021090206, , BEST, 0, 129N, 314W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 0, 15, 1010, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LARRY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,

[beoumont]

That massive outer band will likely need to die out in order for core convection to flourish and this to continue RI..

Cat #4 Hurricane Hugo, 1989, approaching Lesser Antilles

[kevin]

We have hurricane Larry:

022
WTNT32 KNHC 020843
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

...LARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 32.3W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[kevin]

Peak intensity raised again, now to 115 kt.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.0N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.4N 34.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.8N 40.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.9N 52.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH

[aspen]

That outer band is awfully persistent. It hasn’t stopped the core from organizing, but as long as it persists, it’ll be focusing convection away from the core.