ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

New peak is 105 Kt.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.2N 46.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

[cycloneye]

West shift.

Owing to the westward
shift in the overall guidance envelope, and considering the GFS
solution as an outlier model, the new NHC forecast track has also
been shifted westward, and lies between the NOAA-HCCA
corrected-consensus model to the south, and the tightly packed TVCA
simple-consensus model and FSSE corrected-consensus model to the
north. Given the poor handling of the ridge to the north of Larry by
the GFS, subsequent NHC forecast tracks may have to be shifted
farther west.

[kevin]

NHc is placing down the big M in the forecast with a peak of 105 kt, they are quite confident in Larry (as am I).

[SconnieCane]

BT now has 40 kt, and 00z got revised to 35 kt. First time using this name since 2003!

Ringing in September (in UTC time) with a storm naming. Nice!

[grapealcoholic]

1003.6 43.0 2.9 3.2 3.8

[cycloneye]

SSD=3.5

A. 12L (LARRY)

B. 01/1130Z

C. 12.4N

D. 25.5W

E. THREE/MET-11

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 6/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF
3.0. ADDITIONALLY, THE MID-LEVEL BANDING FEATURE IS BECOMING ROBUST
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN DEFINITION. ON VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD ARE
INCREASING SPEED INTO THE LLCC INDICATING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 24
HR TREND IS DEVELOPING. MET IS 3.0 AND PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE
TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[aspen]

Wrapping up very nicely with outflow in all quadrants. There’s currently a dry slot mimicking an eye, but once that’s filled up with a couple of hot towers, Larry will be off to the races. It might even become a major before it gets to 35W.

Larry will run into a pocket of slightly higher OHC in ~48hr that could help with intensification. The further SW track shifts now have it heading into a much more OHC-rich part of the mid-latitudes that could facilitate intensification into a Category 4.

[Extratropical94]

Almost due west, 12.3 vs 12.2N

AL, 12, 2021090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 267W, 40, 1003, TS

[tomatkins]

BT now has 40 kt, and 00z got revised to 35 kt. First time using this name since 2003!

Ringing in September (in UTC time) with a storm naming. Nice!

Things have been so busy lately that its weird to think that both 2009 and 2015 didnt even get to L.

[aspen]

Almost due west, 12.3 vs 12.2N

AL, 12, 2021090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 267W, 40, 1003, TS

I’m surprised the intensity has remained the same. The manual Dvorak fix of T#3.5 supports 55 kt, and RAMMB’s experimental satellite analysis supports 50-55 kt.

[cheezyWXguy]

Probably more of a dry slot than an eye on vis satellite right now, given the current warming of cloud tops. Still, given the structure Larry is exhibiting, and it’s location, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Larry wrap convection around to create an eyewall Isabel-style, instead of the usual appearance where one gets carved out in the middle of deep convection.

[Extratropical94]

Almost due west, 12.3 vs 12.2N

AL, 12, 2021090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 267W, 40, 1003, TS

I’m surprised the intensity has remained the same. The manual Dvorak fix of T#3.5 supports 55 kt, and RAMMB’s experimental satellite analysis supports 50-55 kt.

Yeah, I guess we will see a bump to 50 kts in the 11am advisory, and another backward adjustment of the BT data shortly afterwards.

[aspen]

Still, given the structure Larry is exhibiting, and it’s location, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Larry wrap convection around to create an eyewall Isabel-style, instead of the usual appearance where one gets carved out in the middle of deep convection.

That seems to be what’s happening.

[cycloneye]

Impressive recent ASCAT.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

BT now has 40 kt, and 00z got revised to 35 kt. First time using this name since 2003!

Ringing in September (in UTC time) with a storm naming. Nice!

Things have been so busy lately that its weird to think that both 2009 and 2015 didnt even get to L.

Yeah, if there's a list that's associated with inactive seasons it's this one. 2015, 2009, 1997, 1991, et cetera. This is only the second time this naming rotation has made it this far.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I've seen in the past where very strong hurricanes tend to "make their own environments", like propping up the ridge to the north of them. They don't forego their destined northward motion if a weakness develops, however, they seem to strengthen ridges above and just in front of them, allowing for a more westward or wsw motion, at least in the short term. I suspect we may see some of that from Larry. Models will likely continue to make leftward shifts for the next few days. Unless it can really slow down significantly though, I doubt there will be enough time for the ridge to fully build back west to cause a US CONUS landfall. That said, I would be paying close attention if I were still living in NC or Cape Cod. Low probability of a direct landfall at this point, but I've seen historically that models can abandon the OTS scenario with big storms.

[Blown Away]

You can see the LLC briefly @12.2N/27N, looks like an eye feature, but I think it’s just a break in the clouds. Due W movement IMO.

[TheBigO]

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but didn’t Irma start out a lot like this with similar early intensity and early recurve models?

[gatorcane]

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but didn’t Irma start out a lot like this with similar early intensity and early recurve models?

I looked back at Irma models and they were much further west before recurving. The recurve signal is about as strong as it gets at the moment with Larry, thankfully.