Tropical Wave off the Coast of Africa (Is Invest 90L)
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday night
Would be nice to see a long tracking major OTS storm out of this. We'll see
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday night
A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the
development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or
latter part of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the
development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or
latter part of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday night
Looking like the classic, powerful fish storm to me. Might be similar to Hurricane Teddy last year.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday night
I haven't really been paying attention to anything in the Atlantic besides Ida the last few days. So I just decided to check out the model runs and wow. I don't remember ever seeing so many strong members in the euro ensemble before a storm forms. Even Ida's euro forecast didn't come close to this. At least it'll most likely be OTS.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
over the eastern Tropical Atlantic later today. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure
area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
over the eastern Tropical Atlantic later today. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure
area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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hurricanes1234
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
Man, for a tropical wave that hasn't even left the coast of Africa yet, this thing surely means business. 
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Blown Away
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
00z EURO... Still fishy, but a sizeable slow down and SW adjustment from 192-240 hours compared to previous runs... Something to watch...
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/heFRriA.gif
00z EURO... Still fishy, but a sizeable slow down and SW adjustment from 192-240 hours compared to previous runs... Something to watch...
That's a big one at that.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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chris_fit
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
Looks like the 00Z Euro is the Western Outlier compared to the EPS
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
AutoPenalti wrote:Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/heFRriA.gif
00z EURO... Still fishy, but a sizeable slow down and SW adjustment from 192-240 hours compared to previous runs... Something to watch...
That's a big one at that.
Yes.... definitely a big system...
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
Will be also interesting to see how quickly this one actually manages to develop. If it develops as fast as the Euro/GFS says, I don't see how it can do anything but go out to sea.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
If that translates into fewer systems evolving and being squashed...then bring it on...
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
underthwx wrote:
If that translates into fewer systems evolving and being squashed...then bring it on...
Well in this case not for this wave.
Edit: Actually, the EPS shows that occuring during the 2nd week of September onwards, by then that TW is forecast to be by 55W and anywhere between 15N to 30N...
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
underthwx wrote:
If that translates into fewer systems evolving and being squashed...then bring it on...
I don’t think that strong ridging would kill AEWs coming off the coast at that time, but I don’t know for certain. I’ve never heard of ridging by itself being a wave-killer.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
Right now there's a good chance this wave goes OTS, thankfully. However, this is the same time of year when Irma and Florence looked like they would go OTS, but didn't. So we'll have to watch it for sure.
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/heFRriA.gif
00z EURO... Still fishy, but a sizeable slow down and SW adjustment from 192-240 hours compared to previous runs... Something to watch...
I get the feeling the western extent of its track depends to some degree on the evolution of Kate. Euro hardly even recognizes it exists, but models like the gfs and icon that develop Kate into a hurricane have Larry recurving earlier. It seems that a stronger Kate that sticks around for a little longer might have some influence on keeping the weakness open
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Blown Away
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
Big TW about to splash into the Atlantic...
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
12z GFS interaction with the wave behind it is... somewhat questionable at best.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today
And this looks to be a bigger system to boot, which sometimes means longer time to develop. Something to keep an eye on
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