Following El Niño conditions last summer, there has been a return to more neutral conditions during the cooler months. The 3-month mean value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently near zero compared with a value of -10 at the same time last year.
Based on this information and on climate model predictions of near neutral conditions persisting for the next six months the Bureau of Meteorology's outlook for the 2003/2004 tropical cyclone season for North West Australia is :
- An average season with around four cyclones expected to form off North West Australia.
Likelihood of around two coastal impacts.
Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
The most active period for tropical cyclones is more likely to be during January and February. There is a moderate risk of a cyclone forming off the northwest coast before Christmas. The Kimberley or adjacent Eighty-mile Beach is the area most likely to be affected should a cyclone form before Christmas.
