ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

Bombing.

[skyline385]

Dropsonde suggests 986 mb. The previous pass likely missed the true center.

Watch recon put a 988mb fix instead

On another note, cold pink towers popping through the center...

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde suggests 986 mb. The previous pass likely missed the true center.

Watch recon put a 988mb fix instead

On another note, cold pink towers popping through the center...

It was 988/20.

[kevin]

Yep, I think RI is recommencing right now. The minor disruption by Cuba only managed to prevent further intensification over land and the hour or so afterwards, but that's it. For a second it looked like the eyewall damage may be a significant inhibitor, but in classical Ida fashion she took care of that before we even had time to discuss its implications at length. If Cuba didn't exist this would already have been a cat 2/3. But not to get anyone's hopes up, this version of Ida will be at that level as well quite soon.

[T-man]

I hope not too soon! I'm hoping the ridge stays strong and Ida jogs west. Not to wish it on anybody else, just sayin'.

[skyline385]

0Z SHIPS guidance still fairly high

[ConvergenceZone]

0Z SHIPS guidance still fairly high

https://i.imgur.com/qBOjtBE.png

At least it's dropped somewhat.....

[grapealcoholic]

New violent upshear wrap. This should close off an eyewall

[kevin]

Images say more than words, so instead of me explaining here's Ida's WV loop to show its recovery from Cuba:

[skyline385]

0Z SHIPS guidance still fairly high

https://i.imgur.com/qBOjtBE.png

At least it's dropped somewhat.....

Well the 12Z SHIPS was initialized at 50 kt (65kt/72hr RI threshold = 41%) whereas this one is at 70 kt (45kt/36hr RI threshold = 48%) so if anything it looks like it went up (48% vs 41% for 115 kt in 36hrs vs 72hrs). Also, there is an additional 55kt/48hr RI threshold = 36% now which is pretty high probability...

[CryHavoc]

Jumping in late night here from California.

A word of warning to those saying that the slight weakening might prevent a Cat 5 from happening -- have we forgotten how small of a span of time it takes a hurricane to spool up in the past decade? Michael was a minimal cat 1 on October 8th (12utc), and made landfall less than 60 hours later (1830utc) on October 10th as a monster cat 5, and that's with a period of weakening the night of the 8th.

And as always, because it needs to be said: There is absolutely no difference in terms of danger to loss of life and property from a 155mph Cat4 and a 158mph Cat5 storm. The ballyhoo about the specific category misses the mark -- even if it doesn't "have time" to make it to Cat 5, a strengthening cat 4 is still a complete monster and in many cases still a "worst case scenario" for those living along the coast in Louisiana.

[Airboy]

Looking at the IR sats and knowing how much time of the guld it has left, would be very suprised if it's not ending up Cat4 at least.

[Highteeld]

This is looking really impressive tonight. Consistent upshear convective hot towers. Likely another RI phase inbound. The hurricane models don't see this right now, and the intensity consensus on tropical tidbits from the 06 UTC suite is unrepresentative. That's my take. This is bombing right now.

[USTropics]

Radar presentation continues to improve:

[Bad_Hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1431512468099010563

[grapealcoholic]

Should be a major by sunrise

[CryHavoc]

Radar presentation continues to improve:
https://i.imgur.com/FzBeUkY.gif

That is remarkable to go from so ragged to relatively symmetrical in just a few frames. I would guess the core is properly venting and doesn't have much in the way of shear or dry air.

[CryHavoc]

Should be a major by sunrise

If it intensifies that fast there will be serious panic along the coast (not that there isn't already).

[sikkar]

Nice giant feeder band, also eye outline clearly visible.

[supercane4867]

On track to the bathtub...