ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[KimmieLa]

I'm not on Storm2K much anymore. I no longer have a home in FL My US residence for the last 10 years has been in Charlotte, NC, so I don't obsess over hurricanes as much and only pop in here occasionally. But I have such vivid memories still of going through Katrina with folks on this board and being so concerned for all in SE Louisiana and also the Mississippi Gulf Coast and waiting for folks to check in after the storm, and following stories as folks rebuilt their lives after huge losses.

It's eerie to have Ida bearing down on the same area 16 years to the day that Katrina struck.

I won't be on here much tomorrow. I'm visiting some friends, so will be driving and offline much of the day. But for all who are in Ida's path, I'll be thinking of and praying for you. Praying all who need to find safer shelter will be able to do so, and that leaders will make wise decisions and that experts will be able to communicate effectively. My heart hurts at the crisis within a crisis, this storm coming on top of all the suffering and loss from Covid, and full hospitals. It's just dreadful. May you all find strength and people to stand with you and help you get through this time.

For all on the Gulf Coast tonight, try to get some sleep if you can. The rest will help you stay clear headed. Standing with you all from a far.

KB, thank you so much for that, it is surely appreciated.

[KBBOCA]

Will be interesting to see the models tomorrow to see if the models are shifting East or they will shift back a little each way up until landfall. As of right now I'm breathing a lot better than I was this morning. Even though that Spaghetti Model from the 1800Z tonight has me a little worried, but going by the NHC cone, I'm barely in it now.

You should be using wind probability, surge and rainfall estimates to assess your risk. Being in or out of the cone doesn't denote risk. as the storm draws closer the cone will narrow...but the extent of the weather hazards won't. the net effect here is there will be an increasing area in a hurricane and or storm surge warning outside of the cone. good luck to you and everyone else up that way.

This is SUCH an important point. The tracking cone does not denote risk, just the error deviation of where the center is likely to be. Impacts can be hundreds of miles from the center. Storm surge, intense rain, flash flooding, tornadoes... As already said, please pay attention to the specific risks for your area as highlighted by your local NWS office. Don't focus on the cone and landfall location. That's only one small piece of the risk assessment you need to do.

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431467761235107842

[PavelGaborik]

Good news on the core being beaten down some.

Hopefully it takes it's time re-organizing and ingests some dry air while it's at it.

[tarheelprogrammer]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431467761235107842?s=20

At this point any slow down in strengthening is great news.

[grapealcoholic]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431467761235107842?s=20

At this point any slow down in strengthening is great news.

Maybe, but it could mean less time for an EWRC.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yes. dry air is great.

[Blizzard96x]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431467761235107842?s=20

This is amazing news... at least from an amateur's POV. Hopefully this delay will keep this below a Cat 4 at landfall. Still need to be prepared, but I'm hopeful Cuba did it's work on this thing to keep this from being a borderline Cat 4/5... maybe wishful thinking idk...

[Stormgodess]

Glad you’re out! I’ve never understood how folks could be so unprepared during hurricane season while living along the coast. Especially as we’re moving toward the heart of it. I wish you all the best. It is shaping up to be something else.

Im not out though. We have vehicles gassed but really nowhere to go, it took a bit too long to convince some family that we needed to leave. Anything we could have afforded is long gone booked up now . So we are going to my mother in laws home in Hammond, its a 50's style brick ranch. And simply praying for the best.

Good luck. Sometimes a well built home on high ground is about the best you can hope for. We generally always road storms out at schools or family nearby but stuck close to home. Power outage is no fun and as scary as it was at times, they are some of my fondest memories. Times have changed and I think more people leave, which is smart in some ways, but there’s part of me that thinks it’s best to leave the roads to folks running from the coast, water, or unsafe structures.

Yeh I agree totally about leaving roads open for those along the coast but with this one as strong as it is and inland damage as bad as its gonna be, I wanted to grab up my babies and go. Its my daughter who is 8 months pregnant, my son in law and my two yr old grandbaby ...that held out on leaving. And there is no way I'd leave them behind. I would feel better if we were safe in a hotel somewhere, but I understand her fear in traveling too.

And thank you both.

[HurricaneBelle]

Will be interesting to see the models tomorrow to see if the models are shifting East or they will shift back a little each way up until landfall. As of right now I'm breathing a lot better than I was this morning. Even though that Spaghetti Model from the 1800Z tonight has me a little worried, but going by the NHC cone, I'm barely in it now.

You should be using wind probability, surge and rainfall estimates to assess your risk. Being in or out of the cone doesn't denote risk. as the storm draws closer the cone will narrow...but the extent of the weather hazards won't. the net effect here is there will be an increasing area in a hurricane and or storm surge warning outside of the cone. good luck to you and everyone else up that way.

This is SUCH an important point. The tracking cone does not denote risk, just the error deviation of where the center is likely to be. Impacts can be hundreds of miles from the center. Storm surge, intense rain, flash flooding, tornadoes... As already said, please pay attention to the specific risks for your area as highlighted by your local NWS office. Don't focus on the cone and landfall location. That's only one small piece of the risk assessment you need to do.

I see the original poster is not that far west of Lafayette, whose probabilities are 85% for TS winds, 52% for high-end TS winds, and 34% for hurricane winds, among the highest in the latest advisory. Doesn't matter whether or not you're in "the cone". Also with each passing year, track forecasting improves and the cone gets skinnier. It doesn't mean the hurricanes are getting skinnier.

I remember when NHC implemented it, after Charley made landfall well south of Tampa where the center had been predicted to go and because people fixated on the "skinny black line". Now they just fixate on a somewhat larger area that doesn't necessarily reflect storm impacts.

[MississippiWx]

All it will take is one large convective burst.

The trend for Ida has been for the mid-level center to dominate. I suspect a blowup of convection over the mid level center to tug the low-level center back to the north. Whenever that happens Ida will strengthen quickly.

[Keldeo1997]

well that was quick

[grapealcoholic]

Big upshear wrap. Things are ramping up quick

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ida really just snaps her bands and boom goes convection. I don't get it. On a more serious note, Ida has probably resumed intensification

[grapealcoholic]

Ida really just snaps her bands and boom goes convection. I don't get it. On a more serious note, Ida has probably resumed intensification

She never lost her inner core wind field. 80 mph surface winds over 30C water = boom

[Chris90]

Dropsonde in the eyewall measured a 91kt gust 81mb above the surface, 75kt average in lowest 500m and 76kt average in lowest 150m. The eyewall is recovering after Cuba, but Ida's modus operandi so far has been to be ahead of the curve intensity wise.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Big convective burst wrapping around now. more hot towers are firing up. Ida in a hurry to ramp back up.

[skyline385]

Looks like 0Z HMON over-initialized...

[FLpanhandle91]

I believe the MLC and LLC are now realigned. Recon making a hard east turn toward thr MLC we saw on satellite.

[ConvergenceZone]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431467761235107842?s=20

Wow! Fantastic News! I didn't realize the core got disrupted that much...It's also good because it might limit the time for an eyewall replacement cycle(which is known to expend the wind-field)..
But even if it was disrupted and no longer has a closed eyewall, it can still strengthen quickly, but it might mean that we will have to contend with a Cat 3 instead of a Cat 4, and I know that doesn't make a huge difference, but we will take any good news we can get....