ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Ida is already projected CAT 4 at landfall...
and that may be an understatement.

I'll go on record with sub 920 at landfall, judging from its current form and path.

none of the 18z models supports that, lowest I saw was 933

None of the model outputs had foreseen the extreme intensities of many previous historic storms either. At this point it's in nowcasting territory.

[SecondBreakfast]

@supercane This image is so beautiful. What is the difference between this and the one posted up thread by NDG?

I’m trained in bioimage analysis but hey I can scale up right?

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
Ida has a smily face on the mushroom cloud infrared.

[Iceresistance]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Ida has a smily face on the mushroom cloud infrared.

The Evil Smile . . .

[IcyTundra]

I'm starting to think New Orleans will avoid the worst of Hurricane Ida. They will still get impacts though and should still keep a close eye on Ida as any shifts to the east will drastically increase their impacts.

[NDG]

Indredible, this hurricane means business.
I am a bit nervous for the people in Nola, Ida has been tracking to the right of models and forecasted track. Just a 50 mile deviation could put Nola in a bad situation, especially those on the West Bank of the City, facing the storm surge coming in from the south.
My mom is visiting her sisters and they want to stay in place during the storm because they keep seeing the track stay to their west, against my suggestion to evacuate just in case.

https://i.imgur.com/l6SKram.gif

I would get Mom and sisters out while the gettin is good.
repeat NHC rarely over-exaggerates a storms intensity at landfall.

They have 24 hours to make or break.

Yes, hopefully they will change their mind tomorrow morning, there is still plenty of time for them to get out unless the whole city decides to get out at a last minute. During Katrina one of my aunts wanted to stayed behind at a Hotel in Metairie after just about everyone had gotten out of the city and we had evacuated to Baton Rouge, we still got them out the afternoon before Katrina hit the following morning without much problem.

[Iceresistance]

I'm starting to think New Orleans will avoid the worst of Hurricane Ida. They will still get impacts though and should still keep a close eye on Ida as any shifts to the east will drastically increase their impacts.

Don't call it yet . . .

[jdjaguar]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Ida has a smily face on the mushroom cloud infrared.

nice catch...personally, not smiling.

this storm is gonna go CAT 5 when it hits the loop.

I would urge posters who have family in the area to ask them to evacuate.

better safe than sorry, and NHC concurs

[InfernoFlameCat]

That mushroom cloud is so intense it is shoving the other convection out of its way. also the highest cloud tops are wicked cold.

[Ptarmigan]

I have seen forecast models of Ida and some have it going near New Orleans. If it is large hurricane, that could be a severe problem. This is on top of the COVID-19 pandemic.

[jdjaguar]

I'm starting to think New Orleans will avoid the worst of Hurricane Ida. They will still get impacts though and should still keep a close eye on Ida as any shifts to the east will drastically increase their impacts.

on what basis?

[MetroMike]

The thing that blows my mind is that arrival to La. comes on the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

[TallahasseeMan]

Eye still seems to be closed according to Cuban radar about halfway through it's trek across the island.

[jdjaguar]

Indredible, this hurricane means business.
I am a bit nervous for the people in Nola, Ida has been tracking to the right of models and forecasted track. Just a 50 mile deviation could put Nola in a bad situation, especially those on the West Bank of the City, facing the storm surge coming in from the south.
My mom is visiting her sisters and they want to stay in place during the storm because they keep seeing the track stay to their west, against my suggestion to evacuate just in case.

https://i.imgur.com/l6SKram.gif

I would get Mom and sisters out while the gettin is good.
repeat NHC rarely over-exaggerates a storms intensity at landfall.

They have 24 hours to make or break.

Yes, hopefully they will change their mind tomorrow morning, there is still plenty of time for them to get out unless the whole city decides to get out at a last minute. During Katrina one of my aunts wanted to stayed behind at a Hotel in Metairie after just about everyone had gotten out of the city and we had evacuated to Baton Rouge, we still got them out the afternoon before Katrina hit the following morning without much problem.

I wish you and your family well. god bless

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1431403689462349824




Ida Ignoring Cuba....

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1431403689462349824?s=21

Ida Ignoring Cuba....

Does it seem like that Ida is going through Cuba like it does not even exist?

[tropicwatch]

Winds steadily increasing close to the lower Florida Keys.

Station SANF1 - Sand Key, FL
Sustained 24kts Gusts 29kts
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sanf1

[Janie2006]

There is absolutely no reason to think that metro New Orleans is in any way, shape, or form out of the woods. If anything, it’s in the hot seat. In any case as currently forecasted, New Orleans is in the NW quadrant. The only question in my mind at this point is whether it catches part of the eyewall.

[Clearcloudz]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/DFkSBK6s4CI[/youtube]

National Hurricane Center Video Update

Very Strong wording and he sounds concerned.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't know we can forecast the wind field until we see how it blows up in the gulf. Katrina didn't have that extensive wind field going over South Florida. It blew up in the gulf.

but it was forecasted to have a much higher wind field when it hit the gulf.... It's not going to have the time to undergo lots of ERC cycles to expand the wind field that significantly. Sure it will expand some, but not near to the amount that Katrina expanded to...