ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

nice blow-up at landfall, what the hell is the NOAA plane doing Im watching it on my radaralive app it did 6 circles went N for a bit and now is headed back.

They thought they picked up a distress signal, they also went down as well . . .

EDIT: Nope, they went up & then down, that was very weird . . .

[jdjaguar]

The worst case scenario is basically a Katrina type size storm hitting just west of the city at peak Cat 5 intensity. Then the city is flattened by wind and likely flooded with surge as the levees are only rated to Cat 3.

Now, this is not currently forecast. It's forecast to hit at Cat 4 and significantly west of New Orleans but it's also not impossible. Slight adjustment errors in track and intensity and N.O. is in a world of pain.

Katrina degraded to CAT 3 at landfall and opened up on the west
with substantial dry air intrusion.

Storm surge was the most dangerous component, not wind.

[NDG]

Indredible, this hurricane means business.
I am a bit nervous for the people in Nola, Ida has been tracking to the right of models and forecasted track. Just a 50 mile deviation could put Nola in a bad situation, especially those on the West Bank of the City, facing the storm surge coming in from the south.
My mom is visiting her sisters and they want to stay in place during the storm because they keep seeing the track stay to their west, against my suggestion to evacuate just in case.

[PandaCitrus]

That last satellite loop is wild. It looks like a nuke exploded over Cuba.

[jdjaguar]

Ida is already projected CAT 4 at landfall...
and that may be an understatement.

I'll go on record with sub 920 at landfall, judging from its current form and path.

[cycloneye]

Makes landfall.

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA MAKES LANDFALL IN PINAR DEL RIO CUBA...

Satellite images, radar data from Cuba, and data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters indicate that Ida has made landfall in the Cuban
province of Pinar Del Rio, about 20 miles (30 km) east of La
Coloma. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 80 mph (130
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 725 PM EDT...2325 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1431396170161664007

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1431396170161664007

[IcyTundra]

New Orleans better hope Ida stays on its current track any shifts further east and it gets a lot worse for New Orleans.

[jdjaguar]

Indredible, this hurricane means business.
I am a bit nervous for the people in Nola, Ida has been tracking to the right of models and forecasted track. Just a 50 mile deviation could put Nola in a bad situation, especially those on the West Bank of the City, facing the storm surge coming in from the south.
My mom is visiting her sisters and they want to stay in place during the storm because they keep seeing the track stay to their west, against my suggestion to evacuate just in case.

https://i.imgur.com/l6SKram.gif

I would get Mom and sisters out while the gettin is good.
repeat NHC rarely over-exaggerates a storms intensity at landfall.

They have 24 hours to make or break.

[galaxy401]

Ida has already proven to be a monster storm and its only 2 days old. Going to be a long weekend...

[tropicwatch]

AF is up.

[supercane4867]

Here comes the topography induced convection bloom

[StormPyrate]

Ida is already projected CAT 4 at landfall...
and that may be an understatement.

I'll go on record with sub 920 at landfall, judging from its current form and path.

none of the 18z models supports that, lowest I saw was 933

[skyline385]

933mb/120kt on 18Z HWRF

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is going to be like grace but WITH the extra 24 or more hours

[skyline385]

Looks like NOAA2 is going back towards Ida again?

[Kazmit]

Indredible, this hurricane means business.
I am a bit nervous for the people in Nola, Ida has been tracking to the right of models and forecasted track. Just a 50 mile deviation could put Nola in a bad situation, especially those on the West Bank of the City, facing the storm surge coming in from the south.
My mom is visiting her sisters and they want to stay in place during the storm because they keep seeing the track stay to their west, against my suggestion to evacuate just in case.

https://i.imgur.com/l6SKram.gif

I would get Mom and sisters out while the gettin is good.
repeat NHC rarely over-exaggerates a storms intensity at landfall.

They have 24 hours to make or break.

Florence is the only instance I can think of.

[jdjaguar]

Ida is already projected CAT 4 at landfall...
and that may be an understatement.

I'll go on record with sub 920 at landfall, judging from its current form and path.

none of the 18z models supports that, lowest I saw was 933

models change.
lets circle back tomorrow.

(not wish-casting)

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/1431400257045340164




"Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period ". Where have we seen that before?