ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[PandaCitrus]

True, I guess it is basically a game of miles. How far does it have to go west for New Orleans to dodge the surge.

So am I wrong to think current NHC wouldn't be catastrophic for New Orleans even at Cat 4/5? Avoiding the core of the hurricane similar to Katrina but the unknown factor is surge and if all the levy's hold.

Katrina went east of New Orleans so the weaker side of the storm is what hit the city. While Ida looks currently to be trending farther away from New Orleans than Katrina did it will likely pass to the west of the city which could put it in the "Front-Right quadrant" where conditions are usually the most intense from a hurricane.

[StormPyrate]

So am I wrong to think current NHC wouldn't be catastrophic for New Orleans even at Cat 4/5? Avoiding the core of the hurricane similar to Katrina but the unknown factor is surge and if all the levy's hold.

Was there for Katrina
This would be far worse on the current forecast
Katrina was a 3 this is forecast to be the
Katrina came ashore east of Nola this will come in west as forecast
Katrina the wind event was survivable, the issues came almost a day after landfall when the levees failed

[Sanibel]

Looks like another Camille powering up...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

• 1969 Camille: 135 kt/919 mb◇
• 1856 “Last Island”: 130 kt/934 mb
• 1957 Audrey: 130 kt/925 mb*
• 2020 Laura: 130 kt/939 mb✽
• 1965 Betsy: 115 kt/946 mb

◇Did not make landfall in LA, but passed close by
*Unofficial, personal estimation
✽Disputed, could be closer to 100 kt/945 mb

I don't know of any legitimate dispute over Laura's landfall strength. I find it maddening that measurements taken in the 1800's or mid 1900's are somehow believed more than recent landfalling measurements with data infinitely more accurate then pre 1960.

I'm also skeptical of the 19th Century intensities even following the last major reanalysis project. I do believe most of these intensity ratings are assigned because of damage done or using core samples from coastlines. As we saw with Katrina, the sustained winds of a storm can be weakening rather quickly but the storm surge/waves it carried from peak intensity take much longer to wind down.

[StormPyrate]

So am I wrong to think current NHC wouldn't be catastrophic for New Orleans even at Cat 4/5? Avoiding the core of the hurricane similar to Katrina but the unknown factor is surge and if all the levy's hold.

Delete

[Cyclenall]

That is one of the most aggressive NHC discussions I've read for a CAT1 RI'ing TC, using the word catastrophic already. How fast is this EI is going to be, in terms of all-time rankings for Gulf systems. Also for the settled size of the hurricane as if there was ever a setup to fuel a large hurricane fast like Katrina this is it with the loop current.

[utweather]

Looks like another Camille powering up...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

The path and intensity forecasts look similar.

[CronkPSU]

Thread on just this discussion… cliffs Katrina had a lot of bulky up energy and surge from being a large cat 5 for so long  https://twitter.com/jacob_feuer/status/1431365487531864066

[toad strangler]

Always with an interesting perspective iCyclone comes from ...


 http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1431226077725216771

[IcyTundra]

Ida is going to be further west than both Camille and Katrina not good for New Orleans. I think the wind threat is going to be a bigger problem for New Orleans than it was for both of those storms.

[toad strangler]

ughhh ... something we touch on frequently here at S2K ...

 http://twitter.com/NWS/status/1431366078840586242

[skyline385]

Did recon miss the center? FL winds never dropped below 20kt

[tolakram]

[Owasso]

[aspen]

Either they missed the center, or it’s already moving onshore, or both. Winds are quite low but the edge of the CoC still has sub-990 pressures.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1431371735392296962

[AlabamaDave]

Ida is going to be further west than both Camille and Katrina not good for New Orleans. I think the wind threat is going to be a bigger problem for New Orleans than it was for both of those storms.

I think so, too, although if the exact NHC track line right now verifies, then the center stays 60+ miles away from downtown New Orleans. Surely that would keep winds well below Cat-3 or Cat-4 levels? Big if, since it wouldn't take much of a wobble to bring the core of the winds over at least part of metro New Orleans.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Sorry to repeat myself, here, but maybe including a picture or two will help:

https://i.ibb.co/pbsJLjs/COD-GOES-East-regional-gulf-10-20210827-192617-over-map-bars.jpg

That's a low-level water-vapor shot from the COD site. There's obviously 's a lot of dry air around Ida, although it's at a low level. Medium-levels are significantly more humid, but still on the dry side:

https://i.ibb.co/fSqgqPL/COD-GOES-East-regional-gulf-09-20210827-194117-over-map-bars.jpg

My question is about the low-level air. Does low-level dry air affect the deepening of a tropical cyclone, or does it have to be closer to mid-levels to matter? Obviously, Ida is intensifying quickly, but would it be significantly faster if the low-level dry air weren't there?

Thanks!

Doesn't really matter. The overall environment created by Ida is pretty moist & there's no shear to push the mid-level dry air into the center.

[tolakram]

Error 03 is SFMR questionable, so best reading is 992 with winds of 23kts

213030 2200N 08313W 6951 03103 9920 +135 +053 340020 022 055 000 00
213100 2159N 08310W 6958 03090 9920 +132 +055 321022 023 054 000 00
213130 2159N 08308W 6956 03086 9905 +139 +057 299024 026 /// /// 03
213200 2159N 08306W 6954 03083 9891 +146 +060 278021 022 041 000 03
213230 2159N 08303W 6959 03075 9886 +146 +063 256020 023 042 000 03
213300 2159N 08301W 6957 03077 9891 +141 +067 229021 022 /// /// 03
213330 2158N 08259W 6958 03078 9887 +147 +070 233026 030 /// /// 03
213400 2156N 08257W 6954 03085 9899 +138 +073 240036 040 /// /// 03
213430 2155N 08255W 6957 03086 9915 +128 +074 235048 049 /// /// 03

[psyclone]

Always with an interesting perspective iCyclone comes from ...


http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1431226077725216771?s=20

I believe it was Hugh Willoughby that said "hurricanes are like bananas, they come in bunches"
that has always stuck with me. Simple. Profound.
Louisiana is a banana plantation