ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Stormgodess]

I'm starting to wonder if a Cat 4 is possible at this point! Crazy!!!!!!

And Im at the point that Im sure Cat 4 is likely. But I really am a novice. Though I tend to have really good instincts, especially when they are strong. And I truly FELT this one coming since yesterday morning.

Hate to get all hooky on yall, but it is what it is

[Hurrilurker]

Hope people in the Gulf Coast are paying attention. People get busy with work/life and this one came up fast. The stores/gas stations/roads in the area are going to be complete chaos tomorrow.

[xironman]

When, roughly, is it expected to make landfall in Cuba?

Probably in just a couple hours. It's moving at a decent clip so it's going to be in the Gulf already by sunset.

I have it over the gulf at 9pm EDT.

[Fancy1001]

I’d argue that category 4 is almost guaranteed, like a 90 to 95% chance. I’m not sure what percent chance to give it to reach category five.

[grapealcoholic]

Best looking Cat 1 storm I've ever seen

[tolakram]

Certainly looking like a proper hurricane now, all that messiness from yesterday is gone (like, you can actually tell where the center is now without guessing). Not going to be surprised to see an eye pop very shortly after it exits Cuba. I won't even be shocked if we see one before it gets to Cuba mainland.

Need more recon!!

[Blinhart]

I'm starting to wonder if a Cat 4 is possible at this point! Crazy!!!!!!

Cat 4 was possible yesterday. Cat 5 is possible as of today.

Don't like "liking" post like this, but I had to, this system has all the ingredients to get as strong as time will allow.

[psyclone]

exceptional development ongoing. The 5 pm advisory is likely to escalate landfall intensity yet again and will probably increase those already high surge value forecasts. after downplaying the high end suggestions last night in favor of a more "moderate" low end cat 3 event... I am a believer in something significantly worse. When the facts change your mind should be malleable enough to follow suit. This is looking bad. Michael passed by western Cuba at cat 1 intensity and continued it's relentless strengthening until landfall...so a Laura-ish intensity (or worse) sure seems like a distinct possibility.

[grapealcoholic]

Recon en route from cape canaveral

edit: looks to be upper level :/

[Kazmit]

Best looking Cat 1 storm I've ever seen

I wouldn't say so, it doesn't even have an eye yet-- quickly intensifying storms usually don't at this stage. Look at Hurricane Hanna from last year in comparison.

[ElectricStorm]

We'll see how it looks after Cuba. If it still looks pretty good, then I would say there's definitely Cat 5 potential. But until it clears Cuba, we won't really know for sure. I'm think Cat 4+ is extremely likely. It's very rare to have a storm in the Atlantic like this that is pretty much a lock to become very strong.

[CrazyC83]

I think that, as long as Cuba doesn't disrupt the core, the intensity will really take off tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised to see it go from category 1-2 to category 4-5 in the Loop Current tomorrow.

[Blinhart]

She's going pinhole over the Isle of Youth? (Also note more Gravity waves)

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/93900759.gif

She is getting a lot larger, and it is getting easier to track the direction she is going.

[TallyTracker]

Hope people in the Gulf Coast are paying attention. People get busy with work/life and this one came up fast. The stores/gas stations/roads in the area are going to be complete chaos tomorrow.

My cousin and her husband are planning to leave overnight tonight. She went through Michael in Panama City and Zeta in New Orleans and she doesn’t want anything to do with this. I agree though; traffic is gonna be snarled but midday tomorrow.

[tropicwatch]

Best looking Cat 1 storm I've ever seen

I wouldn't say so, it doesn't even have an eye yet-- quickly intensifying storms usually don't at this stage. Look at Hurricane Hanna from last year in comparison.

From latest VDM:
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)

[Stormgodess]

Hurricane Ida is here and way sooner than expected. It seems like the stars are aligned to give Ida every single favorable characteristic: Nora won't be a problem, it'll go exactly over the warmest waters, low shear forecast, landfall over what's basically the flattest area in the entire Caribbean. It has all the ingredients to become one of the infamous big ones. Is there anything I've forgotten about that might be able to put a lid on Ida?

If Ida develops an inner core too quickly, it could be a hinderance to intensification past Cuba, as Ida's old inner core could be in a war with the inner one before reaching the loop current.

Is that what causes some really intense storms to sometimes just peter out for no apparent reason??? How much of a possibility is there to this happening in this case? And how much does the optimal conditions around her play into whether such a thing happens or not?

Sorry for all the questions, just grasping for a glimmer of hope

[Monsoonjr99]

Ida really gives me bad vibes of a certain "C" storm.

Already a hurricane, ideal upper-level conditions ahead of it, and headed over some WPac-level rocket fuel as it nears Louisiana... I won't be surprised if this explodes into a cat 5.

[Ubuntwo]

Best looking Cat 1 storm I've ever seen

I wouldn't say so, it doesn't even have an eye yet-- quickly intensifying storms usually don't at this stage. Look at Hurricane Hanna from last year in comparison.

From latest VDM:
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)

Difference being Hanna had a cleared out eye on IR and visible, while Ida’s is currently under the CDO. Just different levels of maturity.

[LadyBug72]

I am sorry to post this but I have family in Lake Charles and Gueydan LA......they do not want to leave. We are trying to get good info to them. Shouldn't they evacuate? I am in coastal Texas so I apologize, I have no idea about LA. Thank you for any insight you can provide, you guys are the best!

[ThetaE]

Recon en route from cape canaveral

edit: looks to be upper level :/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA9-0509A-IDA.png

Yup. For future reference, the label "NOAA9" refers to one particular plane, nicknamed "Gonzo," that doesn't fly into the storm (it's a small jet, vs. the big propeller Orion P3s like Kermit (NOAA2) and Ms. Piggy (NOAA3)). This one's used to sample surrounding environments. If I had to guess, it's going to measure the ridge over the SE US to improve model track forecasts.