ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[xironman]

Has there been any recent post by wxman57? He's probably extremely busy right now, but I was just wondering whether he had recently given his thoughts on Ida's rapid strengthening.

Haven't heard much out of Mr. Dunn either

I would assume he would be prepping to chase. This is a great opportunity. Map out those parking garages.

[ThetaE]

Given the current rate of intensification Ida could conceivably approach MH status at LF on western Cuba. I think 80–90 kt/970–975 mb seems quite likely, given the observed rate of deepening and organisation observed by radar, satellite, and reconnaissance. Ida’s current track, along with its relocated centre, would minimise interaction with the Isla de la Juventud and would maximise the storm’s time over the Gulf of Batabanó prior to landfall on the Cuban mainland. If I recall correctly, the most aggressive model run to date only suggested that Ida would approach ~70 kt/~985 mb at landfall on western Cuba. Ida currently looks to be at least 10 kt/mb stronger than that by the time it impacts western Cuba.

I am growing increasingly concerned that Ida could take a track similar to the 1947 hurricane or Betsy but feature a LF intensity comparable to Michael’s.

Before Cuba? That seems pretty fast. I'm a lot more hesitant. My general belief is that before TCs build a really mature structure (closed eyewall, symmetry, etc.), intensification tends to be very nonlinear and come in jumps and pauses. Sure Ida's pressure dropped a lot between the last two passes, but it was also constant between the first two passes (~1.5 hr gap). And last year, I remember Sally also put on a big drop in pressure to a strong TS/weak hurricane before flatlining for a long time while it sorted itself structurally. That drop, like this one, was the result of a center reformation towards some intense hot towers.

That said, Ida is definitely in a better position than Sally (which I'm using to illustrate my jumps/pauses point, not as an analogy for this situation). Clearly Ida is working to rapidly build an eyewall right now. It may not drop pressure much or increase winds while it does this, but it is an important step in intensification that sets the scene for serious RI in the Gulf.

If Ida does build an inner core quickly, I could see something in the range of 70 kt/980 mb, maybe 75 kt. Otherwise thinking 65 kt/985 mb.

I hate to say it, but I think it’s going to be closer to the upper range of your estimate. The CDO has rapidly matured and key west radar depicts a structure to match. There’s a decent chance imo that this is a hurricane already.

Yeah, it's definitely looking good on radar right now. Key West radar picking up some yellows (30 dBZ+) on the far side of the eyewall, despite potential attenuation, high beam, and the fact that the SW side has had the weakest winds so far.

I wonder how big of a difference having a closed vs. open eyewall will make in terms of land interaction. It seems logical that if/when Ida closes off before landfall it'll be more resistant to detrimental impacts, but IDK how much it'll really matter given such favorable conditions for intensification all around.

[Craters]

There's still a lot of low-level dry air to the west and south of Ida:https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-10-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined. And unless I'm imagining things, there are a good number of outflow boundaries to the southwest of the CoC: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined.

How much does low-level dry air inhibit intensification relative to mid-level dry air, all other things being equal? I'm just wondering if Ida would be deepening even faster if the lower levels were more humid.

[Kohlecane]

Gotta' love a Sandwich

[Steve]

man look at that convection going on along the Texas and Louisiana coast

Upper low out front.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/sandwich.jpg
Gotta' love a Sandwich

Terrible time to use SFMR

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Has there been any recent post by wxman57? He's probably extremely busy right now, but I was just wondering whether he had recently given his thoughts on Ida's rapid strengthening.

Haven't heard much out of Mr. Dunn either

Haven't seen Aric since Elsa. Wonder where they're at.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1431295943203295237

[tiger_deF]

Has there been any recent post by wxman57? He's probably extremely busy right now, but I was just wondering whether he had recently given his thoughts on Ida's rapid strengthening.

Haven't heard much out of Mr. Dunn either

Haven't seen Aric since Elsa. Wonder where they're at.

Probably somewhere Elsa

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1431297748851171333

[Zonacane]

Haven't heard much out of Mr. Dunn either

Haven't seen Aric since Elsa. Wonder where they're at.

Probably somewhere Elsa

Take your like and get out

[CrazyC83]

Last pass suggests we have a hurricane. Pressure looks to be about 986, winds about 70 kt.

[Steve]

I can't ... this person just posted in a forum on FB that NOAA is "weather seeding" to create a super hurricane and that's why data was unavailable
Otherwise in the realm of current situation that was quite impressive watching IDA strengthen in that period of time with Recon in there. Glad it's Friday because watching this come of Cuba is when things will become very interesting IMO, also to whoever suggested TS watches for the keys, I think that would make sense ATM but far W keys probably will experience some decent bands skirting through. Then again I should probably just go pull the radar and see myself

Yeah, in this age of information, there's so much stuipidity and belief in b.s. I'm currently working on a bumper sticker that says, "Don't lie. That B.S. you believe came from the internet." <-- completely apolitical but to the point.

[Fancy1001]

Haven't heard much out of Mr. Dunn either

Haven't seen Aric since Elsa. Wonder where they're at.

Probably somewhere Elsa

That’s it, you’re under arrest. Time to go to bad joke jail.

[hohnywx]

When they will start ordering evacuations for New Orleans and SE Louisiana?

Mandatory evacuations ordered for portions of Orleans and Plaquemines parishes already: https://www.wwltv.com/article/weather/h ... a1f30a3b11

[tolakram]

A little late, but VDM plot just came through.

[Bad_Hurricane]

[ColdMiser123]

Last pass suggests we have a hurricane. Pressure looks to be about 986, winds about 70 kt.

Agree, peak SFMR and FL wind found on this pass both support hurricane intensity now, pressure has continued to fall at a good clip as well.

[skyline385]

Recon looks like it's going in again