ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[skyline385]

Going to copy my comment from the models thread - comparing the 0Z HWRF run IR plot at 06Z, Ida looks to be well ahead of schedule, that structure is far better than what the HWRF assumes during initialization

[Stormgodess]

GFS is actually stronger this run along with ICON...

Yea I just went over to the models thread...He's obviously full of crap..............Very disappointing that he has to make stuff up like this...

'
Not totally wrong, many of the pure intensity models did drop below cat 2 at the 0z run, see https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ty_00z.png vs https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ty_18z.png
But it's not what I'd call a huge change either.

Im hoping I didnt ruffle feathers. thats not what I meant to do. Its just hard when Im looking at something like this... Top is gulf temps without track bottom is where I added the track

 https://twitter.com/SouthernShortys/status/1431137911206989845




And it looks from the track like she not only hits the warm gulf, she literally stays in the warmer parts skirting any of the cooler areas of the gulf...until she reaches offshore New Orleans with the warmest water out there.

Im a total novice at this, my only experience is 49 yrs living in SE Lousiiana...but one thing I do know,,,,That warm water gulf track, is pure high octane hurricane fuel.

I do realize there are many factors at play, and anything can happen. But we are talking about only two days to evacuate a major city if this thing suddenly gets its act together and then takes advantage of every bit of that heat over the gulf. Then slams into a giant bowl with Three of its main pumps not working.

[Cypresso]

Yea I just went over to the models thread...He's obviously full of crap..............Very disappointing that he has to make stuff up like this...

'
Not totally wrong, many of the pure intensity models did drop below cat 2 at the 0z run, see https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ty_00z.png vs https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ty_18z.png
But it's not what I'd call a huge change either.

Im hoping I didnt ruffle feathers. thats not what I meant to do. Its just hard when Im looking at something like this... Top is gulf temps without track bottom is where I added the track

https://twitter.com/SouthernShortys/status/1431137911206989845?s=20

And it looks from the track like she not only hits the warm gulf, she literally stays in the warmer parts skirting any of the cooler areas of the gulf...until she reaches offshore New Orleans with the warmest water out there.

Im a total novice at this, my only experience is 49 yrs living in SE Lousiiana...but one thing I do know,,,,That warm water gulf track, is pure high octane hurricane fuel.

I do realize there are many factors at play, and anything can happen. But we are talking about only two days to evacuate a major city if this thing suddenly gets its act together and then takes advantage of every bit of that heat over the gulf. Then slams into a giant bowl with Three of its main pumps not working.

Not a novice here, but you claiming to be one sorta catches me off guard. Your posts are very informative and spot on from my experience of enduring quite a few hurricanes head on in the Houston area as well as Corpus Christi. I appreciate what you share and no ruffled feathers here.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1431107311053983749

On the other hand, models and real-time trends indicate that Nora in the EPAC will likely become stronger than originally expected, which would result in a stronger ULAC cell inducing more downstream wave fluxes and shear over Ida as the latter nears landfall. RI is still likely over the southern Gulf, but could level off closer to landfall, similar to Laura. Regardless, the threat to LA will still be serious.

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

Bombing

[Chemmers]

Looks like hot tower firing around the centre now, might the start of intensification or ri?

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like hot tower firing around the centre now, might the start of intensification or ri?

No question.

[grapealcoholic]

[galaxy401]

Is that an eye feature trying to form on Radar or is it just an illusion?

[jhpigott]

http://www.weather.gov.ky/radar_images/radar/250km_cappi.gif

Sure looks like the center is NE of Caymen. Meanwhile the NHC's position is SW of Caymen.

[kevin]

WV loop also clearly shows Ida consolidating. It looks much better now than 6 hours ago.

[grapealcoholic]

Is that an eye feature trying to form on Radar or is it just an illusion?

Quickly putting together an eyewall

[Stormgodess]

Does anyone know why Tropical Tidbits has Ida's pressure at 1003mb?

[galaxy401]

Does anyone know why Tropical Tidbits has Ida's pressure at 1003mb?

That's the Best Track, which gives an indication on what the next advisory will be. They raised the winds to 40 kts on the Best Track too.

[FireRat]

Ida sure has some impressive outflow and is beginning to get that 'look' of a significant developing tropical cyclone, wow. Looks like 2021 Ida is going to want to pick up where 2009 Ida left off, as being another central Gulf threat, and this time during a much more risky time period in the meat of the season, yikes.

[Chemmers]

Recon on there way, think to will go for 50 to 60 mph wind when they get there

[grapealcoholic]

Probably already a hurricane

[weeniepatrol]

Lol! Allow me to pump the breaks, here.

Ida appears to be sheared to me.

We can clearly see the offset between vorticity at 850mb and 500mb.



Which is consistent with the latest ADT fixes placing the center at the SW edge of the deep convection.



This SWly shear appears to be beneath the cirrus layer at the mid levels and shows up well in the GOES mid level wind shear product.



One notices this shear quickly clearing out, so one would expect robust organization to begin very soon (today). But this talk that recon would find a hurricane right now? Let's simmer down, please!

[Hammy]

Looks like it's starting to wrap around, center just north of Grand Cayman.