ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

Camille was a cat 2 before it made landfall over Western Cuba. I don't see cat 5 as a realistic possibility I think cat 4 is the highest Ida can realistically reach imo it will be a cat 3 though. Either way Ida is going to be a very dangerous hurricane and people in Louisiana and Mississippi should be prepared.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1431107311053983749

[ConvergenceZone]

Any predictions on strength?

I'm afraid this storm is going to find an outflow channel, and have just enough forcing over the top (helpful not hurtful) at landfall that it's going to bomb. God, I hope I am wrong but if I lived in NOLA I would get the heck out now.

Thank you for being honest about it.

I wish some of our local weather guys would quit playing it so safe. I understand they dont want to be wrong, and they dont want to cause panic. But dang panic last minute will be so much worse.

This is one of our local guys in New Orleans saying that members are backing off on intensity from even the cat 2 with fewer members leaning that strong? I just dont get it, and it can be frustrating sometimes. But I still appreciate their thankless work. sorry for ranting, my anxiety is sky high

https://twitter.com/CJohnFranklin/status/1431068703639093255?s=20

I think I need to visit the models thread to see if what this Meteorologist is saying is true regarding the models backing off on Cat 2 intensity or if he just doesn't have a clue on what he's saying and is just talking nonsense.....I guess I'll find out in a few minutes....Time to check the models thread.....

[IcyTundra]

I'm afraid this storm is going to find an outflow channel, and have just enough forcing over the top (helpful not hurtful) at landfall that it's going to bomb. God, I hope I am wrong but if I lived in NOLA I would get the heck out now.

Thank you for being honest about it.

I wish some of our local weather guys would quit playing it so safe. I understand they dont want to be wrong, and they dont want to cause panic. But dang panic last minute will be so much worse.

This is one of our local guys in New Orleans saying that members are backing off on intensity from even the cat 2 with fewer members leaning that strong? I just dont get it, and it can be frustrating sometimes. But I still appreciate their thankless work. sorry for ranting, my anxiety is sky high

https://twitter.com/CJohnFranklin/status/1431068703639093255?s=20

I think I need to visit the models thread to see if what this Meteorologist is saying is true regarding the models backing off on Cat 2 intensity or if he just doesn't have a clue on what he's saying and is just talking nonsense.....I guess I'll find out in a few minutes....Time to check the models thread.....

GFS is actually stronger this run along with ICON...

[grapealcoholic]

Multiple CBs surrounding a pinhole eye

[ConvergenceZone]

Thank you for being honest about it.

I wish some of our local weather guys would quit playing it so safe. I understand they dont want to be wrong, and they dont want to cause panic. But dang panic last minute will be so much worse.

This is one of our local guys in New Orleans saying that members are backing off on intensity from even the cat 2 with fewer members leaning that strong? I just dont get it, and it can be frustrating sometimes. But I still appreciate their thankless work. sorry for ranting, my anxiety is sky high

https://twitter.com/CJohnFranklin/status/1431068703639093255?s=20

I think I need to visit the models thread to see if what this Meteorologist is saying is true regarding the models backing off on Cat 2 intensity or if he just doesn't have a clue on what he's saying and is just talking nonsense.....I guess I'll find out in a few minutes....Time to check the models thread.....

GFS is actually stronger this run along with ICON...

Yea I just went over to the models thread...He's obviously full of crap..............Very disappointing that he has to make stuff up like this...

[Blinhart]

Multiple CBs surrounding a pinhole eye

I agree that there are multiple vortices around a central area, so we need to wait until RECON gets back in there, so going to bed and going to see what is going on when I get up in the morning and finish prepping either for Ida or future storms.

[grapealcoholic]

[BobHarlem]

I think I need to visit the models thread to see if what this Meteorologist is saying is true regarding the models backing off on Cat 2 intensity or if he just doesn't have a clue on what he's saying and is just talking nonsense.....I guess I'll find out in a few minutes....Time to check the models thread.....

GFS is actually stronger this run along with ICON...

Yea I just went over to the models thread...He's obviously full of crap..............Very disappointing that he has to make stuff up like this...

'
Not totally wrong, many of the pure intensity models did drop below cat 2 at the 0z run, see https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ty_00z.png vs https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ty_18z.png
But it's not what I'd call a huge change either.

[Blinhart]

I think I need to visit the models thread to see if what this Meteorologist is saying is true regarding the models backing off on Cat 2 intensity or if he just doesn't have a clue on what he's saying and is just talking nonsense.....I guess I'll find out in a few minutes....Time to check the models thread.....

GFS is actually stronger this run along with ICON...

Yea I just went over to the models thread...He's obviously full of crap..............Very disappointing that he has to make stuff up like this...

I just asked him where he saw this, and told him if he wanted to scare people to show the NAM.

[Steve]

I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.

Pretty much worst case scenario for storm surge in New Orleans if that was to verify.

The Federal levees will not collapse now, but the coastal communities outside the protection system would take a severe beating for sure.

?

I'm hopeful. It doesn't take but a stupid barge accident or something like that to wreck everything.

It's been a while since we have seen a storm approaching from this angle with the amount of water that it's likely to bring up. Levees held in Isaac, but this looks like a bigger test. I'm sure there will be some failures - just hopefully not in such a way that flooding would become city wide again.

[skyline385]

Latest SHIPS guidance is pretty nuts, 65kts/72hr RI at 44%

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Man I really feel for SE Louisiana. Looks like Ida might try to outdo what her mother Katrina and grandmother Camille did to the area. I hope Louisiana state officials start issuing mandatory evacuations starting tomorrow morning. Depending on how things look tomorrow, I’ll even go as far as saying put NOLA and maybe the northern shore of Lake Pontchartrain on voluntary evacuation by the afternoon that way people can get out in time. Just my opinion…

[supercane4867]

For a system to reach high end intensity in the Gulf it needs to stay relatively weak before crossing Cuba to avoid major disruption of its inner core. Ida seems to be on track for a primed RI scenario.

[IcyTundra]

Western Cuba is mostly flat don't think it will be able to do much to stop Ida from intensifying.

[Steve]

There go some cloudtops...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[hurricaneCW]

Western Cuba is mostly flat don't think it will be able to do much to stop Ida from intensifying.

Yeah it won't do much. The storm is still developing so there's no core to disrupt.

There's a lot of hype for this one and for good reason. We haven't even discussed the COVID factor in LA/MS/AL. Hospitals running out of beds and a major hurricane will impact them.

Also the storm will likely slow down after landfall prolonging the flooding impacts.

My guess is we'll see an intensifying Cat 5 at landfall like Michael. Not enough time for a EWRC

[Cypresso]

Western Cuba is mostly flat don't think it will be able to do much to stop Ida from intensifying.

Yeah it won't do much. The storm is still developing so there's no core to disrupt.

There's a lot of hype for this one and for good reason. We haven't even discussed the COVID factor in LA/MS/AL. Hospitals running out of beds and a major hurricane will impact them.

Also the storm will likely slow down after landfall prolonging the flooding impacts.

My guess is we'll see an intensifying Cat 5 at landfall like Michael. Not enough time for a EWRC

Indeed. Here in Houston, where we have the largest medical center in the world, we are overwhelmed. ICUs are picking and choosing who to treat and not. We are running out of beds and have for quite some time. People evacuating are being encouraged to go west, to the Houston area. Shelters will be overwhelmed and it will be hard to enact the necessary protocols for the issues with Covid.

[Shawee]

Pretty much worst case scenario for storm surge in New Orleans if that was to verify.

The Federal levees will not collapse now, but the coastal communities outside the protection system would take a severe beating for sure.

?

I'm hopeful. It doesn't take but a stupid barge accident or something like that to wreck everything.

It's been a while since we have seen a storm approaching from this angle with the amount of water that it's likely to bring up. Levees held in Isaac, but this looks like a bigger test. I'm sure there will be some failures - just hopefully not in such a way that flooding would become city wide again.

Excellent point! I was referring to to a system-wide failure like 2005.And even then, the west bank polders were not as challenged then as they could be if it makes landfall west of Fourchon as a lot of models show. There has been a lot of work since then, but also a lot of coastal land loss too. Hoping the models are correct on intensity and speed, but I’m with you on your earlier >70% cat 3, maybe even more bullish…

[Steve]

Word. If you didn't see the models thread or run the IR Sim for HWRF, check out the landfall peak at 1am Monday.