ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Steve]

Does the Nam at least pick up on ridging or is it not accurate at all? What is it good for?

Yeah, it's good with a lot of stuff and also how you can adjust off other things it shows. It's just not any good with tropical storm intensity or movement. Occasionally it will tip you off to something like an extreme event (e.g. Harvey's rainfall and big deepen). But it's more of a continental mesoscale model.

[psyclone]

NHC has really dropped the hammer with that advisory. Peak season is here and stuff can snap together quickly. 8-12" of rain and 7-11' surge potential. high impact near major cane expected.

[Category5Kaiju]

Earlier this season, I've been commenting on how that high UOHC spot in the Gulf really concerned me as any storm that runs over that barring hostile atmospheric conditions would easily explode. Unfortunately, it looks like Ida may serve as the first real testament to how much effect such UOHC profile in the Gulf would have.

[Stormgodess]

I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.

Pretty much worst case scenario for storm surge in New Orleans if that was to verify.

And did you see that tweet I posted earlier about 3 of New Orlean's main pumps being down? Thats the only way they keep water out of new orleans just after regular ole thunder storms.

[catskillfire51]

Going back 2 hours and watching the loop, I think this is where the circulation is developing.

[CrazyC83]

Have the NWS offices launched extra balloons yet? We could certainly use that - both in the Southeast for the ridge strength and the Midwest for the trough depth.

[catskillfire51]

I posted this in models thread but just to compare to the previous image I posted, NHC adjusted their cone west a bit, instead of going east of Grand Cayman it has it going right over it now and the circulation I had circled is way off apparently.

[skyline385]

Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.

weather.us is what I'm trying this year.

Have they improved their UI yet? I tried it last year but the UI in particular was so bad, especially trying to select a good region in the tropics to plot. I used weather models before but I no longer wish to support that platform so am looking for any alternatives...

[Shawee]

I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.

Pretty much worst case scenario for storm surge in New Orleans if that was to verify.

The Federal levees will not collapse now, but the coastal communities outside the protection system would take a severe beating for sure.

[ElectricStorm]

There's definitely quite the range of possibilities on intensity with this one, however I think at this point Cat 2+ is pretty much a slam dunk with a major highly likely. Personally I think we'll be looking at a Cat 3/low 4 coming in but it's gonna be tough to make a good prediction until it gets past Cuba and we can see how good the core holds up. I do find it concerning that it pretty much has a full day's head start by forming earlier than expected, but it's pretty much a guessing game until it gets in the gulf. Personally, I do think people in the path need to prepare for a Cat 4+ even if it never gets that strong. There's not really much to stop it once it gets into the gulf, so pretty much anything can happen at this point.

[ConvergenceZone]

Any predictions on strength?

I'm afraid this storm is going to find an outflow channel, and have just enough forcing over the top (helpful not hurtful) at landfall that it's going to bomb. God, I hope I am wrong but if I lived in NOLA I would get the heck out now.

Thank you for being honest about it.

I wish some of our local weather guys would quit playing it so safe. I understand they dont want to be wrong, and they dont want to cause panic. But dang panic last minute will be so much worse.

This is one of our local guys in New Orleans saying that members are backing off on intensity from even the cat 2 with fewer members leaning that strong? I just dont get it, and it can be frustrating sometimes. But I still appreciate their thankless work. sorry for ranting, my anxiety is sky high

https://twitter.com/CJohnFranklin/status/1431068703639093255?s=20

Hmmm, does that mean that most of the models are just expecting a Cat 1 now if I read this Meteorologist's tweet correctly?

[floridasun78]

i hope for best that not cat 2 even 1 is bad their dont need katina again but i seen water very hot in area of gulf and shear have drop too that why nhc saying could be big hurr

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Ida
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5lMmPctbbI

[tailgater]

Looking like it’s right under the westernmost CB on night visible loop, getting really close to Grand Cayman might miss it to the east.

[skyline385]

Both 0Z GFS and ICON shifted west with a stronger run

[dexterlabio]

I'm afraid there is a chance we can see a 5 here. We have seen this before...forecast peak just shy of a Cat3 but the condition all the way until landfall is very prime for a cyclone bombing out.

If the Atlantic is indeed favored again this year then I won't discount the scenario of Ida going RI a la WPAC super typhoon, especially in the heart of this season.

I was skeptical about it at first, but 2021 does look like another dangerous season that might surpass 2020 in terms of "quality over quantity."

[grapealcoholic]

New CB popping near the center

[skyline385]

The structure keeps on getting better...

[LemieT]

Shades of Camille with this one. A 5 cannot be completely ruled out but I'd say something on the order of 120-135 at landfall seems most plausible.

[grapealcoholic]

RI likely tonight