ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

No update to TS. I think there will be an update and special advisory when the Hunter reaches the NE quad

It's quite strange to see 35 kts in the Best Track but the advisory stays at 30. Although IIRC that happened to one of the Pacific storms last year.

[Blinhart]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

Was waiting to hear from the person I trust the most, this actually makes me feel a little better, this would mean that I would be on the West side and would only feel most like Cat 1 winds at the most.

[cycloneye]

They are waiting for this.

However, the initial intensity remains 30
kt pending the aircraft fully sampling the eastern portion of the
circulation.

[catskillfire51]

Appears where the "center" is from recon.

[ouragans]

They are waiting for this.

However, the initial intensity remains 30
kt pending the aircraft fully sampling the eastern portion of the
circulation.

Let's say 30 to 45 min.

This is certainly due to the delay upon departure from the AFB

[tolakram]

[Steve]

Found the center, but I suspect the stronger winds and likely TS winds are in the NE quadrant that has not been sampled yet.

Almost precisely where I put it in my advisory. Been typing advisories, recording videos, and conferencing with clients since 4:45am. One more call at 4pm and I'm done for the day. Lather, rinse, repeat through Sunday.

Love and appreciate it all 57. Muchos gracias.

[grapealcoholic]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1430995683671162885

[CaneCurious]

18Z consensus (TVCN) shifted about 0.4 deg east of my landfall point south of Morgan City. I expected that. Landfall about the same time with TVCN (5pm-6pm Sunday). Expect the NHC to nudge the track a little east shortly. Also expect 100 kts.

Canadian model moves the "Great Labor Day Hurricane" into the Florida Panhandle. No worries for LA, it appears.

I’ve been waiting to see what your forecast was. I am getting pretty nervous as I’m 15 miles west of the city if NOLA. To or not to go is what I’m grappling with now.

[xironman]

No update to TS. I think there will be an update and special advisory when the Hunter reaches the NE quad

40kt SFMR

[ChrisH-UK]

Getting winds in the 40 knot range.

[Nimbus]

They are waiting for this.

However, the initial intensity remains 30
kt pending the aircraft fully sampling the eastern portion of the
circulation.

NE quadrant will be effecting the western tip of Cuba.
edit to add:

NHC upped the landfall wind estimate to 110 MPH at 5pm and a storm like that could easily get hurricane force winds over to Biloxi with just a small shift in track.

[grapealcoholic]

We should see a center reformation soon

[Nimbus]

We should see a center reformation soon

Might find some elongation from the light shear?

[ThetaE]

The tendency for the center to track N of model predictions is also consistent with this shear tilt. The shear in the short term was definitely anticipated, but long term it's expected to dissipate.

We'll see if a center reformation occurs or not. It's certainly a possibility. I sort of get the sense that TD 9/Ida hasn't fully shaken off the elongated trough structure at the low levels, though I don't think that will be a hindrance for long.

 https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1430996262053163010

[cheezyWXguy]

Getting winds in the 40 knot range.

https://imgur.com/r49JyZp

Yeah but it looks like nearly every measurement is flagged on that diagram

[ElectricStorm]

FL winds approaching 50kts. This is a TS now

[ElectricStorm]

Lots of flagged SFMR readings but there's some unflagged 40kt values in there

[Hypercane_Kyle]

47 knot flight level winds strongly suggest we have at minimum a 35 knot TS on our hands.

[NDG]

Yep, plenty good TS force winds at both flight level and by SFMR for an upgrade to TS soon.