ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Thinking this could take a Gustav like track (probably slighty further east) but be slightly stronger.

the latest NHC track and intensity is exactly the same as Gustav in '08. Came in at that angle around Grand Isle and if I recall correctly the intensity at landfall was 110 mph.

[Steve]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

Yay 2021.

[Tireman4]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.

He is full of levity during this busy time, that Wxman 57 is... ( he secretly likes the cold..shh..dont tell anyone..LOL)

[Javlin]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.

He's not Joking according to the models.

[skyline385]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.

He's not Joking according to the models.

Ensembles are not showing much so it is probably a classic GFS ghost storm

[Senobia]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.

Uh, I'm in SE Texas and, reading this, I may or may not have peed my pants a lot.

[SoupBone]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.

He's not Joking according to the models.

He's 100% joking. The GEFS doesn't show anything yet, and the GFS is known for this. I don't like seeing it either, but I'm taking it with a fraction of a grain of salt...for the time being.

[aspen]

Lol this is pretending to have an eye already.

[Javlin]

For us along the MGC where it crosses Cuba will be important more to E like maybe Havana may not bode well

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.

What makes you think they're joking? A little far out to say "big Labor Day Hurricane" certainly, but there is growing model support for another system in the Caribbean after 09L.

[Steve]

Not a joke though slightly extended time frame. Same processes that produced 9 look to be in place. Run the GFS and CMC at Western Atlantic:

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82612&fh=6

Canadian
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82612&fh=6

[skyline385]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.

What makes you think they're joking? A little far out to say "big Labor Day Hurricane" certainly, but there is growing model support for another system in the Caribbean after 09L.

Neither the GEFS or EPS are showing it. It's just a ghost storm popping up on the GFS for the last few runs. I would be more worried about the MDR runner coming up next...

[Javlin]

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.

He's not Joking according to the models.

He's 100% joking. The GEFS doesn't show anything yet, and the GFS is known for this. I don't like seeing it either, but I'm taking it with a fraction of a grain of salt...for the time being.

9/7/21

GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82612&fh=6

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.

What makes you think they're joking? A little far out to say "big Labor Day Hurricane" certainly, but there is growing model support for another system in the Caribbean after 09L.

Neither the GEFS or EPS are showing it. It's just a ghost storm popping up on the GFS for the last few runs. I would be more worried about the MDR runner coming up next...

You might want to check out the global model thread. Doesn't appear to be a ghost storm to me, as there as Canadian support too. Ensemble support is always going to be light this far out.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1430952371883020288




Anyways, were' straying off topic from 09L here.

[Stormgodess]

Just a heads up for anyone else who faces this. We have unlimited data, but it gets throttled if we use over a certain amount. I just got on Twitter and begged Verizon to please unthrottle my data until this storm passes, so I can load weather maps and watch vids from forecasters. They not only unthrottled me, but boosted the signal to me because we live in pretty much a dead zone. So now I can look at the REAL MAPS instead of depending on what people post on Twitter!

[ROCK]

Not a joke though slightly extended time frame. Same processes that produced 9 look to be in place. Run the GFS and CMC at Western Atlantic:

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82612&fh=6

Canadian
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82612&fh=6

Reminds of the same set up as Kat and Rita in a way, Not the same birth place of course. If the CMC and GFS are sniffing it at 180hrs then i am onboard. Thanks Steve

[gatorcane]

Looks like this is going to be a problem for somebody along the northern Gulf coast. LA cannot catch a break it seems though still time for some shifts:

[Nimbus]

For us along the MGC where it crosses Cuba will be important more to E like maybe Havana may not bode well

I've been following a mid level rotation since yesterday when it looked like it was going to cross near the Isle of Youth. There is the warm loop current and possibility of shear from the Pacific storm in one model run, but a stronger high pressure dome often builds with strong hurricanes and the models have been flirting with some major hurricane projections. If the high pressure dome builds and centers closer to Ida it will track more to the north rather than around a distant high pressure ridge periphery. At northern gulf latitudes they recurve to the east on their own in light steering environments. Recon might find at least a weak low level center, Jamaica radar is looking at a circulation about 5-10,000 feet.

[Stormgodess]

Looks like this is going to be a problem for somebody along the northern Gulf coast. LA cannot catch a break it seems though still time for some shifts:

https://i.postimg.cc/QMNLtWXh/goes16-vis-09-L-202108261555.gif

WTH? is that an eye forming????

[cycloneye]

A. 09L (NONAME)

B. 26/1730Z

C. 17.6N

D. 78.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AROUND AN LLCC
THAT IS NEAR THE LARGE ACTIVE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A SHEAR PATTERN
DT OF 2.0. ADDITIONALLY, ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THE DEEP ACTIVE
COLD CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC IN THE NW QUADRANT
INDICATING THE CORE HOLDING STRONG IN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING
RESULTING MET TO BE 2.0 AND PT TO BE 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL