ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Recon in the air

[xironman]

I had begun to forget what a non-sheared TD looked like.

[NDG]

Radar from Grand Cayman is showing that the LLC is coming together nicely just SW of the western tip of Jamaica as also seen on vis satellite.

[Iceresistance]

How high are the odds this becomes a Category 5 in the Gulf?

Not very high, but the SSTs are high, OHC is also high combined with low wind shear, the current inhibitor is it's forward speed . . .

[cycloneye]

Good news as AF plane has departed after bad weather delayed the takeoff.

[GCANE]

Looking at MIMIC-TPW and LL WV.
There could be a possibility of some dry-air intrusion starting tomorrow.
Need to watch this closely.

Looking at latest GFS, it doesn't seem to entrain into the core.
Need to see how this plays out.

[Iceresistance]

Good news as AF plane has departed after bad weather delayed the takeoff.

https://i.imgur.com/w4QczN9.png

How long does the flight take from Mississippi to near Cuba/Jamaica?

[NDG]

Good news as AF plane has departed after bad weather delayed the takeoff.

https://i.imgur.com/w4QczN9.png

How long does the flight take from Mississippi to near Cuba/Jamaica?

My guess 2.5-3 hrs.

[IcyTundra]

Thinking this could take a Gustav like track (probably slighty further east) but be slightly stronger.

[Steve]

Good news as AF plane has departed after bad weather delayed the takeoff.

https://i.imgur.com/w4QczN9.png

How long does the flight take from Mississippi to near Cuba/Jamaica?

My guess 2.5-3 hrs.

It's probably between 2 and 2.5 since it's about 2:15 from New Orleans to Cancun which is roughly about the same distance unless the hurricane aircraft fly slower.

[InfernoFlameCat]

How long does the flight take from Mississippi to near Cuba/Jamaica?

My guess 2.5-3 hrs.

It's probably between 2 and 2.5 since it's about 2:15 from New Orleans to Cancun which is roughly about the same distance unless the hurricane aircraft fly slower.

They slow down as they approach the core.

[GCANE]

GFS run-to-run and the Rossby Wave keeps digging more south with better structure.
Anti-cyclonic Rossby Wave Brake developing nicely in the models.
That 355K PV ring is ominous.
If this gets Cat 3 or higher, steering will tend more to the east.



tcf bank hours saturday

[NDG]

How long does the flight take from Mississippi to near Cuba/Jamaica?

My guess 2.5-3 hrs.

It's probably between 2 and 2.5 since it's about 2:15 from New Orleans to Cancun which is roughly about the same distance unless the hurricane aircraft fly slower.

AF Recons fly much slower than a jet engine commercial plane.
I was just looking at the original flight schedule, it was showing a 4 hr flight to get to the CoC, makes sense, probaly in the 3-4 hr range.

[Cypresso]

Great information as always. I read a lot but rarely post. Houston here. Thanks for all the information you folks are sharing.

[wxman57]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

[cycloneye]

That loop current is hot.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1430947375565217797

[toad strangler]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

WOW ....

[grapealcoholic]

Mid-level eye showing up on visible

[IcyTundra]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

I know this is off topic but the GFS has been consistent for over a week now showing that Labor Day hurricane forming in the Carribean towards the end of the work week next week. Do you think this the GFS is being its usual self generating fake storms or is the GFS onto something?

[SoupBone]

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

I know this is your jokey side, but you just had people pee their pants a little.