ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[hipshot]

Can see what looks W inflow GC might be a depression now

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

Yeah, it looks like the center is trying to form just south of Jamaica.

[kevin]

If and hopefully not but if Ida(99L) is as bad as forecast and impacts are large enough to be retired from the rotating hurricane naming lists, should the WMO consider removing the letter "I"?

Breakng news, the letter after the 'h' has been banned, all tropcal storm actvty has stopped.

[NevadaFan18]

If and hopefully not but if Ida(99L) is as bad as forecast and impacts are large enough to be retired from the rotating hurricane naming lists, should the WMO consider removing the letter "I"?

Why? What would that do? Hurricanes don't choose to become destructive because they know the first letter of their name. It would just mean that J names would be in that sweet spot.

I think he’s joking…

[underthwx]

Is recon out there?...

[InfernoFlameCat]

If and hopefully not but if Ida(99L) is as bad as forecast and impacts are large enough to be retired from the rotating hurricane naming lists, should the WMO consider removing the letter "I"?

The letter of the storm name has no impact on the storm. Ex Andrew and Wilma.

[jaxfladude]

If and hopefully not but if Ida(99L) is as bad as forecast and impacts are large enough to be retired from the rotating hurricane naming lists, should the WMO consider removing the letter "I"?

Why? What would that do? Hurricanes don't choose to become destructive because they know the first letter of their name. It would just mean that J names would be in that sweet spot.

Just thinking out loud....lol. Prayers for all in the Gulf Coast....

[underthwx]

Can see what looks W inflow GC might be a depression now

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

Yeah, it looks like the center is trying to form just south of Jamaica.

I do believe that's what wxman57 was referring to yesterday?...

[Ubuntwo]

The NHC is initiating advisories on TD9.

[aspen]

Is recon out there?...

Today’s scheduled flight is expected to arrive around 20:00z/4pm EST, which should be just in time to give the NHC plenty of data for the 5pm advisory. However, that time was based on a further south center, so the plane could get to TD9/Ida earlier now that it’s further north.

[Steve]

Does any one have input on how good the wind sites are? like Windy.com or Ventusky.com?

I do not, but I would say that I think windy gives you some fairly good depictions.

[USTropics]

This is certainly ahead of schedule from the model runs in my post the other night. It's clear the northern vortex lobe has become the dominant feature. Earlier model runs took longer for this to coalesce, but you can clearly see here in the evolution of the low-level vorticity over the past ~3 days, that the northern lobe has fully pivoted around the vortex streamer that emerged off Columbia (southern lobe), which is now in the process of being strung out/absorbed:

[zhukm29]

If and hopefully not but if Ida(99L) is as bad as forecast and impacts are large enough to be retired from the rotating hurricane naming lists, should the WMO consider removing the letter "I"?

Why? What would that do? Hurricanes don't choose to become destructive because they know the first letter of their name. It would just mean that J names would be in that sweet spot.

I don't think the WMO will remove 'I', since there are still a few female 'I' names that are recognizable (although we are running low). Interestingly enough, 'J' is actually the most common first initial (by a long shot too), and there would be so many options to replace the 'J' name A lot of our problems would be solved if 'J' were the 9th letter of the alphabet instead of 'I', but alas, that is not the case. The people who came up with the order of the alphabet probably didn't know we'd be using it to name hurricanes!

[kevin]

The first cone has arrived:

[catskillfire51]

Again, not sure how accurate these are but it seems like a good depiction, the higher wind speeds outlined and red, the blue line is lighter wind speeds trying to get the circulation.

[cycloneye]

[edu2703]

95 kts peak forecast

[kevin]

As I expected (not to give myself too much credit, most other people on the forum thought the same ) they went with 95 kt as their first advisory, which makes this the strongest 1st advisory ever (at least since 5 day advisories are a thing) together with Iota.

"000
WTNT24 KNHC 261444
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE
CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN"

[Javlin]

The TUTT to the N has retrograded from 22'N yesterday to 25'N today and moving W slowly and beginning to maybe see an ULL out of it.Then we have a feature from the E coming on to the scene out at 65'W another ULL should things position themselves properly the ULL to the E will help ventilate TD9 and should the one to the N turn ULL it will degrade but act as bumper for to much W movement and a more NW component.Just thoughts stepping back and looking at a bigger picture?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[AlphaToOmega]

Initial forecast at 95 knots

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW

[Category5Kaiju]

95 kts peak forecast

Wasn't a similar peak predicted on the first advisory for Iota last year?