ETA joins the pack in development

[Vortex]

Models are really starting to converge on development near PR in 72 hours. The main difference is some have the storm just south of PR and others just N of PR. Either way PR is setting up for a potentially serious flooding situation. Eta at 84:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_084l.gif

[ColdFront77]

The system that may or may not develop into a tropical system cannot move through that high pressure to its north.

If this high even remains somewhat in place, the system would have to move with more of a westerly component.

[Steve H.]

Saw that on the 18z...let's see where it develops. How soon will dictate whether it takes a more westerly route, especially if it develops south of the island. GFS also has a low in the western Caribbean in the medium range. We wait.

[Anonymous]

Remember though that we have seen systems in November.

[Josephine96]

A late November system would be kinda nice. I'm not ready to trash my hurricane tracking chart just yet

[wxman57]

Looks fishy to me. Something could possibly spin up in the NE Caribbean, but steering currents would be weak after 72-84hrs. Blocking ridge to the north disappears after 96 hours or so, and a big front sweeps off the east U.S. coast on the 13th to carry it out to sea to the north. Could produce some rain in the northern Caribbean, but very unlikely it could reach the U.S.

[ColdFront77]

Fair enough, wxman. We watch and wait as things move along.

[LMolineux]

well honestly it might be somewhat of a system but it will not fully dev. but as you knwo the weather is always changing. So it could have a chance.

[Stormsfury]

Looks fishy to me. Something could possibly spin up in the NE Caribbean, but steering currents would be weak after 72-84hrs. Blocking ridge to the north disappears after 96 hours or so, and a big front sweeps off the east U.S. coast on the 13th to carry it out to sea to the north. Could produce some rain in the northern Caribbean, but very unlikely it could reach the U.S.

I think something will spin down. There are possibilities that the spindown will be AIDED with the help of baroclinicity. The Canadian has been the most bullish of all the models, with the other globals slowly beginning to warm up to the idea ... Most all (except the UKMET, which is probably why no one has posted anything from JB lately) the globals are showing some sort of vorticity signature originating from the Eastern Caribbean. One thing that I'm absolutely certain about is that it will NOT affect the US in any way but indirectly fuel an offshore low well off the Northeast Coast (first possible significant East Coast Low of the season) and aid in helping that extratropical low strengthen.

[Steve H.]

European showing a low south of Jamaica later this week, so they're toying with the idea of something.