Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[AlphaToOmega]

Invest 99L has been designated.

Source?

[grapealcoholic]

In awe at this moisture envelope

[SoupBone]

GFS has a nasty Cat 3 bearing down on Corpus Christi to Port Aransas. But this would impact Houston and San Antonio.

[grapealcoholic]

GFS has a nasty Cat 3 bearing down on Corpus Christi to Port Aransas. But this would impact Houston and San Antonio.

https://i.imgur.com/xd9Yzhg.png

And it stalls..

[Kohlecane]

Cat 3 off of CC okay GFS relax now!

[IcyTundra]

If this thing threads the needle and goes through the Yucatan Channel avoiding land interaction watch out... Although the GFS shows it going over the Yucatan and still becoming a major hurricane....

[supercane4867]

Harvey is that you?

[Astromanía]

there's still a chance this system to impact NE Mexico or it's more towards Texas now? Past days models were showing landfalls in Mexico but now it's more towards Texas

[UTSARoadrunner4]

GFS has a nasty Cat 3 bearing down on Corpus Christi to Port Aransas. But this would impact Houston and San Antonio.

https://i.imgur.com/xd9Yzhg.png

Looks like it’s supposed to stall. Harvey’s little brother? (Assuming 97L becomes Ida)

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS has a 945 MB hurricane near Port O'Connor with a massive windfield here in Galveston County we would have sustained TS force winds according to the GFS. This 18Z GFS run kinda reminds me of the track of Carla right into Port O'Connor with a massive windfield.

[grapealcoholic]

Wouldn't be surprised if they get a plane in there tomorrow to sample the area

[SoupBone]

GFS has a nasty Cat 3 bearing down on Corpus Christi to Port Aransas. But this would impact Houston and San Antonio.

https://i.imgur.com/xd9Yzhg.png

Looks like it’s supposed to stall. Harvey’s little brother? (Assuming 97L becomes Ida)

No, not a Harvey. Looks to head west toward San Antonio after it makes landfall, albeit slowly.

[IcyTundra]

there's still a chance this system to impact NE Mexico or it's more towards Texas now? Past days models were showing landfalls in Mexico but now it's more towards Texas

This could still hit Mexico especially North Mexico but the models have been trending towards a Texas landfall today. It is still about 6 days out so a lot can change North Mexico all the way to somewhere in Louisiana are still in play.

[Kohlecane]

Cat 2 by the time its over SA yikes

[PTrackerLA]

Just wow the 18z GFS, shows the high end ceiling of this event.

[aspen]

What’s equally as frightening as the 18z GFS’ Cat 4 landfall is how much time it gives future Julian over water. Being further north and far slower than previous runs, Julian gets around 66-72 hours over the 30-31C SSTs of the Gulf, far longer than the 36-54 hours seen on most other model runs. This slower movement could just be a one-run fluke though. We’ll need to watch for consistency. Still, Grace blew up into a 110 kt Cat 3 with just 30-36 hours over water post-Yucatán. It probably won’t take much to turn Julian into a hurricane.

The ceiling is very high for Julian, but only if the wave portion/right lobe becomes dominant. Otherwise it buries itself into CA and is a weak flooding threat.

[grapealcoholic]

Nasty setup right behind it as well

[ROCK]

Models were bound to sniff out the 31C ssts. this is what is foreboding. . Carla / Harvey / Allen / make a list.

[IcyTundra]

Harvey is that you?

https://i.imgur.com/GA30Oom.png

It's about 40-50 east of where Harvey made landfall but yeah the track is pretty similar.

[ROCK]

Harvey is that you?

https://i.imgur.com/GA30Oom.png

It's about 40-50 east of where Harvey made landfall but yeah the track is pretty similar.

30-40 miles can mean a lot if you live on the west side of Galveston Bay. That wind field is huge, IKE like.