Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[SoupBone]

CMC is very close to the latest Euro in location, and would also dump a lot of rain over central Texas.

[aspen]

The 12z GFS, CMC, and ICON are all targeting the southern Texas coast. GFS has multiple competing vortices, while the CMC and ICON both quickly favor the northern lobe by the time it’s in the Yucatán Channel. The rate of organization and where the LLC tries to consolidate will mean the difference between a sloppy TS and a potent hurricane at landfall.

[IcyTundra]

12Z CMC has a pretty large windfield power outages would be widespread even quite a bit to the east of where it makes landfall.

[SoupBone]

The 12z GFS, CMC, and ICON are all targeting the southern Texas coast. GFS has multiple competing vortices, while the CMC and ICON both quickly favor the northern lobe by the time it’s in the Yucatán Channel. The rate of organization and where the LLC tries to consolidate will mean the difference between a sloppy TS and a potent hurricane at landfall.

I think this is why wxman commented, somewhat cryptic, this morning about not ruling out Texas. That angle of approach too will determine whether Houston sees a bunch of rain versus San Antonio. Most of the recent runs favor a San Antonio rainfall event after landfall...for now.

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET Text Output...Has a TC South East of Brownsville by Monday morning. Looks like all the major models are increasing the odds of a TC making landfall in Texas early next week.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.0N 91.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2021 20.8N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 22.8N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 23.9N 96.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[IcyTundra]

12zUKMET Text Output...Has a TC South East of Brownsville by Monday morning. Looks like all the major models are increasing the odds of a TC making landfall in Texas early next week.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.0N 91.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2021 20.8N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 22.8N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 23.9N 96.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Yeah the entire Texas coast from Brownsville all the way to Port Arthur need to be paying attention to this.

[HoustonFrog]

So when will this become an "active" storm/invest?

[ColdMiser123]

12zUKMET Text Output...Has a TC South East of Brownsville by Monday morning. Looks like all the major models are increasing the odds of a TC making landfall in Texas early next week.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.0N 91.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2021 20.8N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 22.8N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 23.9N 96.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Looks to be the first time the UKMET is showing anything at all for this disturbance, a fluid situation with models still figuring out what will happen.

[IcyTundra]

So when will this become an "active" storm/invest?

Probably on either Wednesday or Thursday.

[ROCK]

I don’t think he was being cryptic lol but making sure it was known. Model runs trending up the MX TX coast. Harvey type storm minus the stall cannot be discounted. The 31C ssts would blow this up…that large wind field from the CMC is discomforting.

[ROCK]

So when will this become an "active" storm/invest?

Probably on either Wednesday or Thursday.

Agree with that time frame.

[ROCK]

Y’all are leaving out the NAVGEM 06Z run north of matagorda!! Got to give it some love also.

[IcyTundra]

12Z GEFS

[jabman98]

Local TV mets in Houston are talking this up now. Lots of comparisons of American and European model runs during weather segments. Saying maybe even a possibility it could be a slow mover. We know plenty about slow moving systems and tons of rain and could certainly do without that.

[GCANE]

Well defined 700 mb wave signature.
Mid-level (500 mb) vort becoming defined.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whatever happens in the end, I really hope Texas does not find itself facing a hurricane threat later next week, let alone a major. Texas has already been through a lot with Harvey, and another big hurricane landfall would simply add more misery and suffering.

[Frank P]

Sat presentation starting to slightly improve this afternoon… hints of broad banding evident on the loops.

[GCANE]

Strong and wide area of convection firing along a sharp shear axis.
This time of year, setups like this can create a multiple number of hot towers that can push vorticity down to the surface and expand the upper troposphere vertically.


\]]

keyboard asus error

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave
currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low
if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Clearcloudz]

Wow very strong 12z CMC Run. I'm willing to predict EURO shows a major in to Texas on this run as well. CMC and euro tend to correlate a lot.