Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[LadyBug72]

Model runs are certainly going to be interesting today!

[IcyTundra]

Not only that, but it keeps the interaction between the two lobes to a minimum instead of attempting to merge them. With the icon and euro in agreement on this, I am having my doubts about the gfs, despite its consistency.

So you'd trust the ICON? The Euro has been performing poorly as well.

I think the bottom line will be which one does take hold out of those two features so we'll see. The ensemble runs mid-day will be very interesting see. The Euro ensembles still had most members in the northern Mexico camp or south Texas, right?

FWIW, the 12Z ICON has the system coming in around Matagorda Bay. It's definitely been consistent in the last several runs. I think someone else posted too, that ICON run stalls in central Texas. That would likely dump a bunch of rain.

Lol I don’t really trust anything right now. But the gfs has a known bias toward overdoing both CAGs and epac activity. This makes it vulnerable to depicting a solution that’s both falsely to weak and too far south. This is why I don’t trust it’s consistency as much as I normally would. Given this, along with the obvious issues with trusting the agreement between less-proven icon and generally poor performing euro, I am still at about a 50/50 split.

And this is just on formation, there are so many other variables in play afterward. A stronger system will push more north, epac development will induce shear and weaken it, as well as pump the ridge and push the storm more south. Or the ridge could break down enough for the storm stall just offshore and change direction. So yeah, not really trusting anything at this point

True I'm hoping we have a good idea of whats going to happen by Saturday.

[SoupBone]

Not only that, but it keeps the interaction between the two lobes to a minimum instead of attempting to merge them. With the icon and euro in agreement on this, I am having my doubts about the gfs, despite its consistency.

So you'd trust the ICON? The Euro has been performing poorly as well.

I think the bottom line will be which one does take hold out of those two features so we'll see. The ensemble runs mid-day will be very interesting see. The Euro ensembles still had most members in the northern Mexico camp or south Texas, right?

FWIW, the 12Z ICON has the system coming in around Matagorda Bay. It's definitely been consistent in the last several runs. I think someone else posted too, that ICON run stalls in central Texas. That would likely dump a bunch of rain.

Lol I don’t really trust anything right now. But the gfs has a known bias toward overdoing both CAGs and epac activity. This makes it vulnerable to depicting a solution that’s both falsely to weak and too far south. This is why I don’t trust it’s consistency as much as I normally would. Given this, along with the obvious issues with trusting the agreement between less-proven icon and generally poor performing euro, I am still at about a 50/50 split.

And this is just on formation, there are so many other variables in play afterward. A stronger system will push more north, epac development will induce shear and weaken it, as well as pump the ridge and push the storm more south. Or the ridge could break down enough for the storm stall just offshore and change direction. So yeah, not really trusting anything at this point

That EPAC development is an absolute wild card here.

[AerospaceEng]

12Z GFS is northeast through 138 hours. Ridge is much weaker.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS now favoring a Tex/Mex solution. The flips to the core being back offshore, unless that's just a blip or something.

[HoustonFrog]

12Z GFS now favoring a Tex/Mex solution.

Yep... SPadre area maybe. Bringing it up north from there with a lot heading into Houston

[ColdMiser123]

Can almost guarantee this exact evolution will not happen the way the 12z GFS thinks it will happen. This looks pretty bizarre as it approaches Texas. To me, it looks like it's still struggling with which piece of vorticity to focus on as it corrects toward a stronger tropical wave interacting with the gyre farther south.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS now favoring a Tex/Mex solution.

Yep... SPadre area maybe. Bringing it up north from there with a lot heading into Houston

Yeah, the frames on that run jump around. The center looks like it goes in around Tex/Mex, then jumps to South Padre, then offshore, then back into Tex/Mex the next frame.

[cheezyWXguy]

That is definitely the most bizarre evolution I’ve seen the gfs depict of this storm yet. It’s essentially two sub-1000mb storms fujiwara-ing. If we dismiss that and look at the setup, it looks to favor the matagorda bay landfall. So much for gfs consistency…

[IcyTundra]

GFS has been consistent for days showing a track into the Central Mexico coast now it is wavering in its consistency. This is a very complex setup and models are having a really hard time with it.

[SoupBone]

The biggest issue with that GFS run is that it stalls over the San Antonio area. They are very prone to flooding. That would be a really bad outcome.

[HoustonFrog]

That is definitely the most bizarre evolution I’ve seen the gfs depict of this storm yet. It’s essentially two sub-1000mb storms fujiwara-ing. If we dismiss that and look at the setup, it looks to favor the matagorda bay landfall. So much for gfs consistency…

Some consistency between models now.... seems like STexas to TX/LA border is the likely play at this point, much subject to change. Corpus to Matagorda most likely, with heavy stuff to the north towards Houston

[ColdMiser123]

Canadian also trending toward the tropical wave being the dominant part of the overall system, this is a pretty questionable evolution though:

[IcyTundra]

CMC has two centers competing to be the dominant one it looks like the CMC favors the northern center on this run.

[Rgv20]

Can almost guarantee this exact evolution will not happen the way the 12z GFS thinks it will happen. This looks pretty bizarre as it approaches Texas. To me, it looks like it's still struggling with which piece of vorticity to focus on as it corrects toward a stronger tropical wave interacting with the gyre farther south.

https://i.imgur.com/M8Mknna.png

If you look at the loop it does a weird dance around

The trend that is concerning is that the models are now forecasting for a weakening ridge which could result in a significant slow down on this possible TC as it approaches land.

[Shell Mound]

Can almost guarantee this exact evolution will not happen the way the 12z GFS thinks it will happen. This looks pretty bizarre as it approaches Texas. To me, it looks like it's still struggling with which piece of vorticity to focus on as it corrects toward a stronger tropical wave interacting with the gyre farther south.

https://i.imgur.com/M8Mknna.png

Maybe the models are hinting that whatever forms could be larger than any of the other systems that we have seen to date. CAG-type systems tend to become quite large, especially during favourable background states. A larger system would maximise the potential for storm surge and rainfall, especially if it moves fairly slowly. The timing and sequence of upcoming development in the W Caribbean and MDR reminds me somewhat of the Harvey/Irma sequence, though at this point I would not necessarily draw direct comparisons between those systems and the upcoming ones. If I recall correctly, 1961’s Carla also formed from a CAG.

[Category5Kaiju]

The north lobe being favored is the one to watch for CONUS should it happen. Not sure what the GoM conditions shear-wise and humidity-wise will be near the time the system will be in the Gulf, but I would say that ssts and UOHC are sitting rocket fuel.

[Category5Kaiju]

Can almost guarantee this exact evolution will not happen the way the 12z GFS thinks it will happen. This looks pretty bizarre as it approaches Texas. To me, it looks like it's still struggling with which piece of vorticity to focus on as it corrects toward a stronger tropical wave interacting with the gyre farther south.

https://i.imgur.com/M8Mknna.png

If you look at the loop it does a weird dance around

The trend that is concerning is that the models are now forecasting for a weakening ridge which could result in a significant slow down on this possible TC as it approaches land.

And a more northerly turn, which would mean Texas would be at a greater risk of some sort of impact rather than Mexico, or at least the sparsely populated regions of Mexico along the Gulf Coast. But yeah, definitely don't want a potent system to hit Texas given the population density along the coast.

[ColdMiser123]

CMC consolidates in the Gulf, significantly north of 0z. Should be a Texas solution.

[IcyTundra]

Can almost guarantee this exact evolution will not happen the way the 12z GFS thinks it will happen. This looks pretty bizarre as it approaches Texas. To me, it looks like it's still struggling with which piece of vorticity to focus on as it corrects toward a stronger tropical wave interacting with the gyre farther south.

https://i.imgur.com/M8Mknna.png

Maybe the models are hinting that whatever forms could be larger than any of the other systems that we have seen to date. CAG-type systems tend to become quite large, especially during favourable background states. A larger system would maximise the potential for storm surge and rainfall, especially if it moves fairly slowly. The timing and sequence of upcoming development in the W Caribbean and MDR reminds me somewhat of the Harvey/Irma sequence, though at this point I would not necessarily draw direct comparisons between those systems and the upcoming ones. If I recall correctly, 1961’s Carla also formed from a CAG.

You're right about Carla it formed in a similar setup to this in the SW Carribean. Had a massive windfield with hurricane force wind gusts being felt as far east as Louisiana.