Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[underthwx]

It's worthless to even post deterministic runs this early, let alone talk about them busting lol

We're not talking about a 14+ day run fantasy land, we're talking 6 days from now. That's a small enough window to make these discussions legitimate.

Part of which includes resolving a monsoon trough

Meaning?...

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1430138723698724880

[NDG]

Euro shows an open wave, so we have three completely different solutions--though worth noting the model had a tropical wave for Grace 72h before it was a hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/FazWhVA.png

Don't forget the Euro Operational doesn't do too well with forecasting development and or strength of developing systems. One of many examples was Henri. Is better to look at its ensembles for potential developing systems.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whatever exactly happens with this system in the Gulf, thermodynamics is extremely favorable for a potent storm (in fact, it looks like Grace did not really dent the BoC skin temp. as much), and if recent years serve as any indication, if shear and dry air cooperate, be careful.

[wxman57]

I think there's at least a 90% chance we'll have at least a TS in the southern Gulf by Sunday/Monday. Threat may be farther north than Grace. Definitely not ruling out Texas. Only real question is whether it will be Ida or Julian. System in the open Atlantic may develop first and head out to sea.

First day off in 2 weeks yesterday and I biked 30 miles for "rest". Today, I pressure wash the house for rest. Might be able to squeeze one more day off tomorrow before we start advisories on the Caribbean system. At least I'll be all rested up for this next long stretch.

[cheezyWXguy]

Euro shows an open wave, so we have three completely different solutions--though worth noting the model had a tropical wave for Grace 72h before it was a hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/FazWhVA.png

Don't forget the Euro Operational doesn't do too well with forecasting development and or strength of developing systems. One of many examples was Henri. Is better to look at its ensembles for potential developing systems.

https://i.imgur.com/Otrx2im.gif

Looks like about a 70-30 split between formation focusing on the cag (west) or the wave (east). If the wave serves as the focus for development, nearly all members go into Texas, and if it’s the cag, maybe 30-40% of those go north of the Mexico border. Taking those probabilities together gives us… roughly 50/50 odds? Yeah, that helps a lot…

[ROCK]

I think there's at least a 90% chance we'll have at least a TS in the southern Gulf by Sunday/Monday. Threat may be farther north than Grace. Definitely not ruling out Texas. Only real question is whether it will be Ida or Julian. System in the open Atlantic may develop first and head out to sea.

First day off in 2 weeks yesterday and I biked 30 miles for "rest". Today, I pressure wash the house for rest. Might be able to squeeze one more day off tomorrow before we start advisories on the Caribbean system. At least I'll be all rested up for this next long stretch.

I agree..for starters. I think a hurricane thereafter is not out of the question. Now how strong it will be remains unknown.

[ROCK]

Euro doubles down on the Texas solution…. It will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles say but I’m not staying up for that

not going to stay up? Oh come on... some of us have been here since 2005. We always stay up for every run.

[NDG]

Euro shows an open wave, so we have three completely different solutions--though worth noting the model had a tropical wave for Grace 72h before it was a hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/FazWhVA.png

Don't forget the Euro Operational doesn't do too well with forecasting development and or strength of developing systems. One of many examples was Henri. Is better to look at its ensembles for potential developing systems.

https://i.imgur.com/Otrx2im.gif

Looks like about a 70-30 split between formation focusing on the cag (west) or the wave (east). If the wave serves as the focus for development, nearly all members go into Texas, and if it’s the cag, maybe 30-40% of those go north of the Mexico border. Taking those probabilities together gives us… roughly 50/50 odds? Yeah, that helps a lot…

What I take out of it is that the Euro ensembles show a good chance for development vs the Opertional run showing an open wave in the southern GOM, where it happens and what track it takes that remains the uncertainty until we see exactly where it develops.

[Rgv20]

A lot of uncertainty with regards to track but models fairly confident on something developing in the Southern GOM late this weekend heading until early next week. Euro ensembles have a pretty wide spread with the possible track but it looks like the target area is between Tampico and Texas/LA border.

[lrak]

This is not the news I expected. I'm still hopeful for ONLY another surf event..ugh

[IcyTundra]

Don't forget the Euro Operational doesn't do too well with forecasting development and or strength of developing systems. One of many examples was Henri. Is better to look at its ensembles for potential developing systems.

https://i.imgur.com/Otrx2im.gif

Looks like about a 70-30 split between formation focusing on the cag (west) or the wave (east). If the wave serves as the focus for development, nearly all members go into Texas, and if it’s the cag, maybe 30-40% of those go north of the Mexico border. Taking those probabilities together gives us… roughly 50/50 odds? Yeah, that helps a lot…

What I take out of it is that the Euro ensembles show a good chance for development vs the Opertional run showing an open wave in the southern GOM, where it happens and what track it takes that remains the uncertainty until we see exactly where it develops.

00Z operational Euro actually develops it just off the coast right before it makes landfall.

[lsuhurricane]

The ICON model is deadset on favoring the northern lobe and taking it off the northern tip of the Yucutan. Nothing good comes of that heading though.

Slows way down just north of Corpus Christi as a 978mb hurricane. This crawl at the coast would produce an incredible amount of rain.

[cheezyWXguy]

The ICON model is deadset on favoring the northern lobe and taking it off the northern tip of the Yucutan. Nothing good comes of that heading though.

Not only that, but it keeps the interaction between the two lobes to a minimum instead of attempting to merge them. With the icon and euro in agreement on this, I am having my doubts about the gfs, despite its consistency.

[IcyTundra]

The 12Z ICON solution would be very bad if it verifies. Completely avoids land interaction with the Yucatan if it does that it could get ugly in the gulf.

[IcyTundra]

The ICON model is deadset on favoring the northern lobe and taking it off the northern tip of the Yucutan. Nothing good comes of that heading though.

Not only that, but it keeps the interaction between the two lobes to a minimum instead of attempting to merge them. With the icon and euro in agreement on this, I am having my doubts about the gfs, despite its consistency.

GFS did shift north towards the Texas/Mexico border on the 6z run will be interesting to see what shows for 12z.

[SoupBone]

The ICON model is deadset on favoring the northern lobe and taking it off the northern tip of the Yucutan. Nothing good comes of that heading though.

Not only that, but it keeps the interaction between the two lobes to a minimum instead of attempting to merge them. With the icon and euro in agreement on this, I am having my doubts about the gfs, despite its consistency.

So you'd trust the ICON? The Euro has been performing poorly as well.

I think the bottom line will be which one does take hold out of those two features so we'll see. The ensemble runs mid-day will be very interesting see. The Euro ensembles still had most members in the northern Mexico camp or south Texas, right?

FWIW, the 12Z ICON has the system coming in around Matagorda Bay. It's definitely been consistent in the last several runs. I think someone else posted too, that ICON run stalls in central Texas. That would likely dump a bunch of rain.

[IcyTundra]

The ICON model is deadset on favoring the northern lobe and taking it off the northern tip of the Yucutan. Nothing good comes of that heading though.

Not only that, but it keeps the interaction between the two lobes to a minimum instead of attempting to merge them. With the icon and euro in agreement on this, I am having my doubts about the gfs, despite its consistency.

So you'd trust the ICON? The Euro has been performing poorly as well.

I think the bottom line will be which one does take hold out of those two features so we'll see. The ensemble runs mid-day will be very interesting see. The Euro still had most members in the northern Mexico camp or south Texas, right?

Yeah the euro ensemble is showing mostly North Mexico and South Texas but those are the weaker members. The stronger members are further north ranging from Central Texas Coast to the TX/LA border. The stronger this thing is the more north it will likely be.

[aspen]

If the ICON is correct about the right lobe becoming dominant and 99L taking that track between the Yucatán and Cuba, it will have 48+ hours over the Gulf to intensify, and it won’t have to worry about rebuilding its core like Grace. Of course, this is the ICON, so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens when the low actually forms.

[cheezyWXguy]

The ICON model is deadset on favoring the northern lobe and taking it off the northern tip of the Yucutan. Nothing good comes of that heading though.

Not only that, but it keeps the interaction between the two lobes to a minimum instead of attempting to merge them. With the icon and euro in agreement on this, I am having my doubts about the gfs, despite its consistency.

So you'd trust the ICON? The Euro has been performing poorly as well.

I think the bottom line will be which one does take hold out of those two features so we'll see. The ensemble runs mid-day will be very interesting see. The Euro ensembles still had most members in the northern Mexico camp or south Texas, right?

FWIW, the 12Z ICON has the system coming in around Matagorda Bay. It's definitely been consistent in the last several runs. I think someone else posted too, that ICON run stalls in central Texas. That would likely dump a bunch of rain.

Lol I don’t really trust anything right now. But the gfs has a known bias toward overdoing both CAGs and epac activity. This makes it vulnerable to depicting a solution that’s both falsely to weak and too far south. This is why I don’t trust it’s consistency as much as I normally would. Given this, along with the obvious issues with trusting the agreement between less-proven icon and generally poor performing euro, I am still at about a 50/50 split.

And this is just on formation, there are so many other variables in play afterward. A stronger system will push more north, epac development will induce shear and weaken it, as well as pump the ridge and push the storm more south. Or the ridge could break down enough for the storm stall just offshore and change direction. So yeah, not really trusting anything at this point